Live data from Hacker News

Nassim Talebs case against Nate Silver is bad math

m.nautil.us

211–213 of 213 posts

Re: Nassim Talebs case against Nate Silver is bad math

#211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Postmodernists think that being upset about someone's personality changes the very fabric of spacetime. "If he's mean, he must be wrong." That's hardly the case.

That's not what "postmodernism" means. Care to try again?

Well, that's not how I see it so I'm going to deconstruct your statement and come to the conclusion that you are merely a collection of your own biases, your case is ultimately racist, and your snarky tone means that you can't possibly be correct.

“Postmodernity is said to be a culture of fragmentary sensations, eclectic nostalgia, disposable simulacra, and promiscuous superficiality, in which the traditionally valued qualities of depth, coherence, meaning, originality, and authenticity are evacuated or dissolved amid the random swirl of empty signals.” ― Jean Baudrillard

An encyclopedia link for your reading pleasure: https://www.britannica.com/topic/postmodernism-philosophy

"There is an objective natural reality, a reality whose existence and properties are logically independent of human beings—of their minds, their societies, their social practices, or their investigative techniques. Postmodernists dismiss this idea as a kind of naive realism. Such reality as there is, according to postmodernists, is a conceptual construct, an artifact of scientific practice and language."

Re: Nassim Talebs case against Nate Silver is bad math

#212
post #165
post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That isn’t arbitrage. Arbitrage entails making a guaranteed profit, not relying on predictable fluctuations.

Arbitrage over time is properly called arbitrage. If the fluctuations are known in advance, then you make a guaranteed profit by trading over time.

Yes, but you don't "know" the fluctuations in advance. You just have educated guesses about how they will mean-revert.

Re: Nassim Talebs case against Nate Silver is bad math

#213
post #184
post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here is the historical data for the 2018 House forecast: - Web: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-f... - JSON: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-f... You are correct they do not publish the exact math of the forecasts, but you can see how the forecast changed over time.

The link I provided does actually show every single forecast 538 has ever made. OP was wrong when they said it was the raw data they use to make the predictions. Check out the link I provided, it has everything OP was asking for.

Nice! I didn’t poke into it much further cause I knew about this one.
Post reply on HN