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Why we should care about the Nate Silver vs. Nassim Taleb Twitter war

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Re: Why we should care about the Nate Silver vs. Nassim Taleb Twitter war

#211

Post by dllthomas » Thu, Dec 20, 2018, 4:45 PM UTC

ThrowMeDown01 wrote: post #202

dllthomas wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scoring_rule#Proper_scoring_ru...

What on earth does that have to do with anything being discussed? Why do you think posting a random link contributes anything?

It's a link about how we can assess how good a job someone is doing at making probabilistic predictions. I had (maybe wrongly) assumed the relevance was obvious.

Re: Why we should care about the Nate Silver vs. Nassim Taleb Twitter war

#212

Post by dang » Sat, Dec 22, 2018, 1:17 AM UTC

ThrowMeDown01 wrote: post #204

scott_s wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nate Silver analyzes their recent predictions against actual outcomes here: How FiveThirtyEight’s 2018 Midterm Forecasts Did, https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-fivethirtyeights-20...

So, and now go back and read what I wrote until you understand it. My hopes are low though, but you can at least give it your best effort, even if the result is underwhelming.

Personal attacks will get you banned here. Please review https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and don't post anything like this, or https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18714287, to HN again.

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