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Japan Is Giving Away 8M Abandoned Houses

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Re: Japan Is Giving Away 8M Abandoned Houses

#211

Post by eloff »

pm90 wrote: post #192
iandanforth wrote: post #180

The more interesting thing about this is that it is part of a new type of economics, contraction economics. The global trend toward birth rates below replenishment means that first-world countries are maintaining their population growth through immigration. As some countries embrace restrictions on immigration, and ultimately all countries plateau in their population growth (projected to be around 2100) it means that…

Well, this is all assuming that humanity will not expand out of Earth. If that does happen, we might actually have a perpetually expanding populace and economy. Fun times.

I think you're assuming the current decline in birth rates is due to scarcity of resources. But I don't think that's true. In the developed world food and energy are not scarce, and even land outside of major metro areas is not scarce.

Population might just stabilize at some point, and then there's not much of a driver to expand off of our planet (apart from some resource mining, and other activities.)

Re: Japan Is Giving Away 8M Abandoned Houses

#212

Post by refurb »

ska wrote: post #18
masklinn wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's probably the only country in the world where "used homes" are considered something to be ashamed of. That's generally true though it depends on the specifics e.g. they would renovate and maintain things like temples, ryokan or major multi-generational homes. It's the "personal" homes which are considered disposable (pretty much anything you'd have in a suburbs in the US for instance).

US is becoming more like that over time too, if you look at a lot of the new builds in subdivisions it's hard to imagine them lasting that long. I wonder if at some point the cultural attitude to "old houses" will become more like Japan's. [edit]: I find the downvotes curious - I know plenty of people living in ~120 year old houses, and plenty living in 5-15 year old new builds in subdivisions. None of us can really…

I live in a 120 year old house. I would agree they are well built if you’re only measure is “they are still standing”.

If it comes down to materials or build quality, no i would not say that 100+ year old homes are better built than newer homes.

Re: Japan Is Giving Away 8M Abandoned Houses

#213

Post by firethief »

neic wrote: post #182
mikekchar wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not easy to asset flip in Japan. I have no idea about this program. I live in Japan and I haven't heard about it, so I'm not sure what the deal is. However, people in Japan don't buy used houses. Due to the large number of earthquakes, etc, older houses are felt to be unsafe. A house on a property is actually a liability because the new owner will have to knock down the house in order to build a new one. I'm abs…

What reasons do people have for not wanting a perfectly good 20-30 year old house for half the price of a new one?

"Raze, rebuild, repeat: why Japan knocks down its houses after 30 years": https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2017/nov/16/japan-reusabl...

tl;dr it's a historical accident that has become a self-perpetuating cultural phenomenon

Re: Japan Is Giving Away 8M Abandoned Houses

#214

Post by saagarjha »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #207
fbinthrow wrote: post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You just accidentally summarized why growth obsessed global capitalists are completely delusional.

> growth obsessed global capitalists are completely delusional Infinite growth and finite material resources are perfectly compatible. Case in point: Fortnite.

I’m not sure if you’re being sarcastic; how does Fortnite demonstrate “infinite growth”?

Re: Japan Is Giving Away 8M Abandoned Houses

#216

Post by dakna »

umeshunni wrote: post #202
tick_tock_tick wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Detroit. It's not free anymore but it's still dirt cheap.

I didn't believe you, but then I looked online and I saw that you were right! Here's a perfectly reasonable house in Detroit for about 4000 USD https://www.redfin.com/MI/Detroit/15285-Manning-St-48205/hom...

Property values are tied to school ratings and crime statistics.

Re: Japan Is Giving Away 8M Abandoned Houses

#218

Post by jameslk »

iandanforth wrote: post #180

The more interesting thing about this is that it is part of a new type of economics, contraction economics. The global trend toward birth rates below replenishment means that first-world countries are maintaining their population growth through immigration. As some countries embrace restrictions on immigration, and ultimately all countries plateau in their population growth (projected to be around 2100) it means that…

Japan is not a very good proxy due to their strict immigration policies and preference to be an "ethnically homogeneous nation." As you mentioned, other countries can just replenish their head count through relaxed immigration. I'd wager, for example, that the US will remain highly multicultural with looser immigration long term since it's baked into its identity[0], despite some recent policy changes.

0. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Melting_pot

Re: Japan Is Giving Away 8M Abandoned Houses

#219

Post by colechristensen »

eloff wrote: post #211
pm90 wrote: post #192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, this is all assuming that humanity will not expand out of Earth. If that does happen, we might actually have a perpetually expanding populace and economy. Fun times.

I think you're assuming the current decline in birth rates is due to scarcity of resources. But I don't think that's true. In the developed world food and energy are not scarce, and even land outside of major metro areas is not scarce. Population might just stabilize at some point, and then there's not much of a driver to expand off of our planet (apart from some resource mining, and other activities.)

Food and energy are not what defines scarcity any more.

If you want to pay the mortgage, have a fulfilling job, have time to spend with your family, and give your child a good start in life, you can't have 8 kids in a middle class family.

Sometimes 1 is the right number if you want your child to be successful and have enough free time to enjoy life yourself.

That IS resource constraint, the resource just isn't food.

The replacement rate is a little above 2 children in the modern world. Three kids is a burden for a lot of people.

Re: Japan Is Giving Away 8M Abandoned Houses

#220

Post by SECProto »

antcas wrote: post #194
mikekchar wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not easy to asset flip in Japan. I have no idea about this program. I live in Japan and I haven't heard about it, so I'm not sure what the deal is. However, people in Japan don't buy used houses. Due to the large number of earthquakes, etc, older houses are felt to be unsafe. A house on a property is actually a liability because the new owner will have to knock down the house in order to build a new one. I'm abs…

Whenever I hear about the used housing market (or lack thereof) in Japan I wonder if there's an opportunity to find some amazing deals. Properties that could be purchased way under value and re-purposed. Either on a personal level (foreigner wants to buy a house) or as a cheap way of setting up a hotel or AirBnB kind of business.

Hotels are already cheap in Japan ($60 a night will get you quite a nice business hotel with hot spring in most places I've been) and Airbnb is subject to local restrictions (federal law passed recently allows local governments to place restrictions on Airbnb - you have to get a permission letter from your city Hall to be allowed to list on airbnb - and they can deny you for any reason eg neighbour complaints). Personal use would be a possibility for sure.
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