Netflix is now worth more than $100B • Hacker News Board

Re: Netflix is now worth more than $100B

#211

Post by Balgair » Tue, Jan 23, 2018, 4:00 AM UTC

WalterBright wrote: post #210

Balgair wrote: post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The only things I can think of are: 1) AI. Somehow, we finally get the AI working, and it somehow produces a lot more jobs. I really think the opposite will happen, but who knows. 2) Climate Change. The ever rising waters and the ever worsening storms will cause nations to re/build large infrastructure projects. Think seawalls and repairing the NYC subway. I don't think that will be good, as it'll mostly just be debt…

> it somehow produces a lot more jobs. Recall a few days ago some people were trying to reconstruct the genome of the first black man in Iceland. There's no way anyone could have a job doing that in anything but a very wealthy society. In other words, AI won't create jobs in manufacturing, but it will enable unexpected jobs to be created that would otherwise not be cost-effective.

Maybe. But the issue is growth percentages. Others point out that 3% is now high. The question is if the fractalization of the economy (that AI may allow) will increase the growth rate to 5% or something.

Re: Netflix is now worth more than $100B

#212

Post by toomuchtodo » Tue, Jan 23, 2018, 4:02 AM UTC

r-s wrote: post #99

appleiigs wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's how people justify investing in Amazon. But I don't know how they think Amazon can just stop reinvesting one day and make money. Every business line Amazon has is hyper competitive. Can Amazon actually raise prices in any of their businesses?

Worked in many AWS shops, I bet almost none of them switch to alternatives if the price rose 10%.

Aren’t their costs going up at least 25-30% because of Meltdown/Spectre mitigation performance penalties? Would they weather another 10-20% price hike on top of that?

Re: Netflix is now worth more than $100B

#213

Post by newscracker » Tue, Jan 23, 2018, 4:03 AM UTC

amelius wrote: post #3

My only fear: soon there will be no BitTorrent seeders left.

BitTorrent is not going away anytime soon. If anything, it's going to get stronger while every content creator and distributor has their own streaming service.

When streaming video started and became bigger, Netflix was seen as a single source for most content. Now, and in the future, this reality isn't going to hold good. It's already painful to figure out where one can watch a certain movie or show (apps like the TV app on Apple TV can help, but only if the streaming apps support it). Content keeps appearing and disappearing on different services and seems like a game of whack-a-mole!

BitTorrent's main draw is that it will always remain a single source (at least for relatively recent content) than any other streaming content provider can ever dream of! If at all torrent sites look like they're shutting down and don't have much activity, it's probably because all the activity with private trackers thriving is invisible. Yes, private trackers also get busted once in a while, but there are many that sprout up in the wake of one's demise. Whoever used the term "hydra" for this phenomenon was right.

Bottom line, as long as "big content" wants to haggle between themselves and focuses on making it inconvenient for customers to access content, BitTorrent will continue to thrive.

Re: Netflix is now worth more than $100B

#214

Post by JamesBarney » Tue, Jan 23, 2018, 4:11 AM UTC

yters wrote: post #195

bsbechtel wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Printing money for the past decade and giving it to large banks will have that effect. It's the same as giving $100 to every person at the market and then wondering why an Apple costs $100.50. The large investment banks are consumers of public equities.

With the bank bailout in 2008, our dollar was effectively halved. Probably what we are seeing now.

By what measure has the dollar lost half it's value?

Re: Netflix is now worth more than $100B

#215

Post by [deleted] » Tue, Jan 23, 2018, 4:25 AM UTC

virmundi wrote: post #191

losteric wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To what degree does income inequality, consumer debt, and rapidly rising barriers of entry to high-income fields contribute slowing GDP growth? Is there research and evidence on the subject? I'm just an engineer with basic financial survival skills... but blind intuition suggests fixing those problems is necessary for a sustainable growing economy. "Trickle-down" theory and growing inequality drains economic activity…

I'm not saying you're wrong. I understand where you're coming from. You raise good points. I think we need to add to this list one simple idea: regulation. Housing costs are terrible. They're getting bad even in small towns like mine. There is no way that my house is worth 172k. For many, especially in California and states that followed their lead, housing cost are largely, not solely, due to regulation on new house…

[deleted]

Re: Netflix is now worth more than $100B

#216

Post by joering2 » Tue, Jan 23, 2018, 5:04 AM UTC

JetSpiegel wrote: post #136

joering2 wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Im sorry it still doesnt make sense to me. "buy 1 tone of fish pay $10 per kg", "buy 10,000 tone of fish, pay 1 cent". Doesnt make sense!! At some point more is not that much cheaper. I doubt coming back to my CDN asking for price on 1,000 TB would bring price to 1 cent per TB.

If they have a box in your ISP with a cache of the content, those Gigabits are coming from a a LAN and are basically free, only limited by the infrastructure.

I see. So how can I bypass my CDN and put box with my own content inside ISP ?

Re: Netflix is now worth more than $100B

#217

Post by eropple » Tue, Jan 23, 2018, 5:05 AM UTC

toomuchtodo wrote: post #212

r-s wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Worked in many AWS shops, I bet almost none of them switch to alternatives if the price rose 10%.

Aren’t their costs going up at least 25-30% because of Meltdown/Spectre mitigation performance penalties? Would they weather another 10-20% price hike on top of that?

25-30% is pretty pessimistic. Maybe on certain services, like a Redis box. On others, like your average web service, it probably won't move the needle much.

I'd ballpark around 5%. And that's for people who weren't overprovisioned in the first place, which is most people.

Re: Netflix is now worth more than $100B

#218

Post by Robotbeat » Tue, Jan 23, 2018, 5:08 AM UTC

bufferoverflow wrote: post #48

eldavido wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A lot of sophisticated financial people share your thinking. The problem is there's no growth to be found anywhere. People are cheering for 3% GDP growth in the US. Interest rates are at all-time historical lows, meaning discount rates are lower than they've ever been. These macro trends have added up to an environment where people are willing to pay staggering premiums for even a remote shot at growth. It's affectin…

> The problem is there's no growth to be found anywhere. Cryptocurrencies and ICOs. Applied neural networks. Automation. Good electric cars. To the point where people are prepaying for something that might be built in a few years. Good cheap batteries.

Don't know why this is down voted so much.

I agree cryptocurrencies are mostly a fad, but AI, automation, electric (self-driving) cars, and good cheap batteries are definitely capable of driving productivity & growth. Lithium batteries are the IC of the 21st century. They've driven a lot of innovation already (smartphones, better laptops, tablets, smartwatches, EVs, consumer drones, etc), but there's a lot more to come in terms of mass market self-driving EVs, mass grid storage, electric aircraft (both robotic and not), etc.

Re: Netflix is now worth more than $100B

#219

Post by brisance » Tue, Jan 23, 2018, 5:15 AM UTC

jonknee wrote: post #149

edpichler wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wouldn't put my money there. There is a lot of better choices with more return of investment. But, it's my money, you can do whatever you want with yours.

> There is a lot of better choices with more return of investment. Except it has actually been one of the best choices to put your money for quite some time. Things can always change, but an average annualized return of 38% over the past five years is really hard to complain about.

Not on a risk-adjusted basis.

Re: Netflix is now worth more than $100B

#220

Post by brisance » Tue, Jan 23, 2018, 5:15 AM UTC

jonknee wrote: post #151

ihsw2 wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Investors buy Amazon because it's popular, not that its financials make sense.

Speak for yourself, I own some Amazon shares and I like their financial prospects... Bezos is playing the long game and I'm happy to be along for the ride.

Then you better hope he has a long life and a good succession plan.