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Solar Roof

tesla.com

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Re: Solar Roof

#211

Post by Thrymr »

guiomie wrote: post #116
atourgates wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't really see the selling point, or value here. Tesla's calculator estimates $40,500 for a roof that generates half our power needs, and should provide $20,400 worth of energy over 30-years. Add in a PowerWall and federal tax credit, and I'm still losing $15,400 over 30-years. If I put that same $40,000 in an index fund that got the stock market's historical 7% average, and waited 30 years, I'd have $308,000. To…

Wouldnt increasing the tag price of your home by 15k to absorb the loss when you sell compensate? Also, in 30 years, 15k will be worth less than 15k today.

That only works if it is worth $15k to the buyer.

Re: Solar Roof

#212

Post by [deleted] »

fictioncircle wrote: post #98
toomuchtodo wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did you take into account the 30% federal tax credit on that 30k? EDIT: That's sort of the kicker. A regular roof does not get a 30% federal tax credit (plus possible state incentives), nor does it produce power for 30+ years, nor does it have a lifetime warranty. If you can obtain low cost financing, you almost always come out ahead.

> EDIT: That's sort of the kicker. A regular roof does not get a 30% federal tax credit (plus possible state incentives), nor does it produce power for 30+ years, nor does it have a lifetime warranty. If you can obtain low cost financing, you almost always come out ahead. Maximizing retirement savings is still likely more cost effective than this roof for most people and I doubt many people in the US are putting away…

[deleted]

Re: Solar Roof

#213

Post by gumby »

Reason077 wrote: post #120
pedrocr wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>If I put that same $40,000 in an index fund that got the stock market's historical 7% average, and waited 30 years, I'd have $308,000. Are you doing the math all in present dollars? Because the return is 7% after inflation but >10% before. So you'd have >500.000 in 2047 dollars. In this case it's important to do that adjustment because you're doing an investment upfront for payoffs over 30 years so the value of mone…

Energy prices, and thus savings, are certain to increase over that 30 years too. Quite likely at a rate exceeding inflation.

Not clear on the historic evidence, and especially not clear when you consider people swapping cap ex for op ex.

Re: Solar Roof

#214

Post by toomuchtodo »

ianai wrote: post #157
pyoung wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are using Google's Project Sunroof[1] to do the modeling. The tool uses satellite images of your roof to create the estimates, and accounts for orientation, shading from trees, etc... [1] https://www.google.com/get/sunroof

That's amazing. Just seriously amazing.

Funny enough, it was someone's side project at Google.

Re: Solar Roof

#215

Post by toomuchtodo »

maxerickson wrote: post #198
xbmcuser wrote: post #194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In 30 years how many times will you have to redo your roof I think one of Tesla solar roofs points was that many houses in the US have to reshingle. Although I still don't think it might be worth it for you.

Shingle warranties are often 20-30 years.

Lots of houses over 100 years old out there. No reason to think a lot of houses today won't still be standing in 100 years.

Re: Solar Roof

#216

Post by gumby »

FYI LCoE calculation on Si PV assume a reduction of at least 50% of generating capacity within 20 years. This page just claims "30 years" which is outside the expected lifetime of any cells on the market today.

Re: Solar Roof

#217

Post by stratigos »

People are thinking way too much about how much this saves them at a personal level.

I think people should instead be thinking about how we can save the existence of the entire species, and all other higher order forms of life on earth, rather than focusing on their individual tax breaks, savings, or other trivial concerns. Yes, your cash flow is rendered quite trivial if life on Earth ends.

Invest in the Life Economy, and turn your back on the Death Economy. The value here is in the benefit to life, concern over state monopolized currencies clearly facilitates an economy of death.

Re: Solar Roof

#218

Post by KerryJones »

stupidhn wrote: post #91
KerryJones wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most of these things require high production amounts which allow refinement and bulk orders. The first Tesla Roadster's ended up being around $110K. They're now doing Model 3's for $35K. I expect the same with the roofs -- they will drop price drastically, but they need to get them out there first.

> They're now doing Model 3's for $35K. What do you mean it isn't the point? They haven't even started production on the Model 3, let alone delivered one for $35k, which is very unlikely to happen. So it's yet to be seen what they'll deliver for 35k. And by the way, the second model(turned out to be the X) was also supposed to be cheaper than the first (Model S). It wasn't. Musk is already announcing the 4th model wi…

It's not the point. The point is they are doing something drastically cheaper than it was, because of mass production.

Even if it comes out to be 40K or 45K -- that's still way lower than it was when it started.

You can get nitpicky about the specifics, it's also completely expected that Musk is always late but always delivers, and usually for a little bit more than expected. This is his MO.

Re: Solar Roof

#219

Post by waynecochran »

phonon wrote: post #77
blakesterz wrote: post #2

Yikes. I just signed a contract for a new roof here last month, it's going to cost about $12k. Just did the estimate for the Tesla Solar roof... $80,300, so $87k if I want the battery too. I can barely afford the $12 right now, the $80 is just so far over it's not even close, even with how much I save over the years in electricity. That being said, I love these things, so hoping it gets cheaper in the coming years.

Doesn't the Tesla roof last substantially longer? Like maybe 2-3 times as long as asphalt ?

From the description:

        Solar Roof is the most durable roof available 
        and the glass itself will come with a warranty 
        for the lifetime of your house, or infinity,
        whichever comes first.

Re: Solar Roof

#220

Post by Thrymr »

greglindahl wrote: post #153
quizme2000 wrote: post #92

I think Elon got ripped off on his last shingle roof. The bar chart is nice but off by at least 150%. I've had many roofing subcontractors as clients past and present in Northern California. Based on an average of 870 roofs in 2016 for Single Family Residential homes in the bay area, Asphalt shingle roofs are $3.12 per square foot for materials and labor. The highest was $5.75 psf and the lowest $2.35 psf. Note that…

The roof launch event was very clear that this is a product that competes against premium roofs. Asphalt shingle roofs aren't premium roofs. As an example, for high-end housing developments, many of them do not allow asphalt shingle roofs. If that's not your thing, great. Then this isn't the product for you.

The article specifically cites a source talking about asphalt shingle roofs: "The price was calculated for a roof where 35 percent of the tiles are solar (solar tiles cost more per square foot than non-solar tiles), in order to generate $53,500 worth of electricity, which according to Consumer Reports would make a solar roof more affordable than an asphalt shingle roof."
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