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A scalper who used bots to buy millions of tickets, now wants to stop them

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Re: A scalper who used bots to buy millions of tickets, now wants to stop them

#211

Post by Spivak »

laurencei wrote: post #4
tyingq wrote: post #2

"Wiseguy learned that Ticketmaster's CAPTCHA system had only loaded 30,000 unique images into its database, rather than millions. So Lowson's team downloaded every image they could find as a .jpeg file, stayed up all night typing them out, and taught their bot how to match the images." Wow. I had the impression Ticketmaster had invested a lot of thought into anti bot tech. Apparently not.

What is more interesting about that statement is how did he learn that fact? Possibly some help from the inside? Or some other method...?

One method is to use capture-recapture sampling. He takes a sample of the images of size N and remembers them. Then he takes another sample of the images with size M and notes that K of them are repeated. Then an estimator for the total number of images is given by NM/K.

Or more concretely, if you take a random sample of 100 images and remember them, then take another sample of 100 images and you recognize half 50 of them. Then you're reasonably confident that 100 is half of the images.

(This does assume that the images presented follow a discrete uniform distribution but it's probably a good assumption given how people write software.)

Re: A scalper who used bots to buy millions of tickets, now wants to stop them

#212

Post by r7000 »

anigbrowl wrote: post #207
r7000 wrote: post #206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Bands don't generally want to maximize revenue from any given gig They do more nowadays. The old model of touring to drive demand for record sales has been turned upside-down. It is now sell music to drive demand for concert ticket sales. Most (not all) artists now make much more of their overall revenue from touring and want to maximize the revenue there - without seeming too much like they are. As well artists ca…

I never even mentioned record sales. I'm just saying that bands want fans who keep coming back over and over. They Might Be Giants are a good example of a band with a very 'sticky' fanbase.

I did not say you did. I mentioned record sales because the balance of from where artists revenue is coming is pushing artists to get more of their money from their gigs as other revenue sources have declined.

The motivation to keep fans coming back and not seem "too greedy" keep things in check but the balance of motivations has definitely shifted towards: we want more money from live events.

Decades ago concert ticket sales might have been considered almost a loss leader.

Re: A scalper who used bots to buy millions of tickets, now wants to stop them

#213

Post by Eridrus »

kalleboo wrote: post #76

Here in Japan it's quite common to have ticket lotteries and ID checks for certain popular/easily oversold artists. Better odds are given to early-bird applicants and fanclub members. Why is that so hard to implement?

Or just look at Eventbrite where you can only request refunds and can't transfer tickets.

Solutions exist, it's just that no-one who has the power to fix it is motivated to do so.

Re: A scalper who used bots to buy millions of tickets, now wants to stop them

#214

Post by anigbrowl »

r7000 wrote: post #212
anigbrowl wrote: post #207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I never even mentioned record sales. I'm just saying that bands want fans who keep coming back over and over. They Might Be Giants are a good example of a band with a very 'sticky' fanbase.

I did not say you did. I mentioned record sales because the balance of from where artists revenue is coming is pushing artists to get more of their money from their gigs as other revenue sources have declined. The motivation to keep fans coming back and not seem "too greedy" keep things in check but the balance of motivations has definitely shifted towards: we want more money from live events. Decades ago concert tic…

OK but I am talking exclusively about getting people to keep coming back to future concerts, although clearly I have done a poor job of communicating this to you.

Re: A scalper who used bots to buy millions of tickets, now wants to stop them

#215

Post by austenallred »

SilasX wrote: post #202
austenallred wrote: post #22

I spent some of my formidable years scalping and brokering event (mostly broadway) tickets in various forms. The company I co-founded made a few million and I learned an expensive lesson in equity at age 18 (I opted instead for the $14/hr salary). We worked in broadway (meaning the style of show, not just the street), and I met the Wiseguys folks at secondary market trade shows, but I had no idea they were this big,…

>I have never yet seen a system that cannot be beat by scalpers, including paperless ticketing, and I find that most venues and artists want to maximize profits and, more importantly, minimize risk anyway. What about charging more, so there is less (or zero) spread between what scalpers can charge vs. the official price (or whatever they call it)?

Well, there's that ;)

But there are reasons they keep prices low as well. There's a "full house effect" that comes when every seat is full (can you imagine being at a play where half of the seats are empty), as well as just offloading the risk and getting cash in advance. It was hard to find someone with 500k to put into tickets speculatively.

Re: A scalper who used bots to buy millions of tickets, now wants to stop them

#216

Post by ryandrake »

alex_duf wrote: post #120
ryandrake wrote: post #3

> "There's an emotional aspect to what artists do, which is to say 'I'm not willing to charge $500 even though clearly the market value is $500. I'm going to charge $100, and at the end of the day someone else is going to make that money,'" The bots are just a symptom. Seems like this is likely the root of the problem. If the primary market was efficient, then there would be no secondary market, and the whole point o…

But an efficient primary market disconnects you from your fans by advantaging richer customers. Probably not the best way to get the crowd that actually care about your music.

If the value of the ticket is more than the price, you're just going to have what you have today: scalper-bots gobbling them up and re-selling them to those richer customers anyway. The people who can't afford the tickets still can't afford them. Whenever you price something under its value, you are just opening up an arbitrage opportunity for someone else.

Re: A scalper who used bots to buy millions of tickets, now wants to stop them

#217

Post by r7000 »

anigbrowl wrote: post #214
r7000 wrote: post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I did not say you did. I mentioned record sales because the balance of from where artists revenue is coming is pushing artists to get more of their money from their gigs as other revenue sources have declined. The motivation to keep fans coming back and not seem "too greedy" keep things in check but the balance of motivations has definitely shifted towards: we want more money from live events. Decades ago concert tic…

OK but I am talking exclusively about getting people to keep coming back to future concerts, although clearly I have done a poor job of communicating this to you.

Bands want people to come back to future concerts. Yes I understand.

My point is that is just one of many factors influencing how bands price their events. And that range of factors has changed over time.

Re: A scalper who used bots to buy millions of tickets, now wants to stop them

#218

Post by SilasX »

austenallred wrote: post #215
SilasX wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I have never yet seen a system that cannot be beat by scalpers, including paperless ticketing, and I find that most venues and artists want to maximize profits and, more importantly, minimize risk anyway. What about charging more, so there is less (or zero) spread between what scalpers can charge vs. the official price (or whatever they call it)?

Well, there's that ;) But there are reasons they keep prices low as well. There's a "full house effect" that comes when every seat is full (can you imagine being at a play where half of the seats are empty), as well as just offloading the risk and getting cash in advance. It was hard to find someone with 500k to put into tickets speculatively.

Right, I just have a hard time believing that filling up the house is just so risky and difficult that they'll take an ~80% loss on revenue (5x scalper markup) just to be sure of it.

That model would require a level of risk aversion from the sellers that implies they should just be buying government bonds with their capital rather than running concerts.

Re: A scalper who used bots to buy millions of tickets, now wants to stop them

#219

Post by closeparen »

SilasX wrote: post #202
austenallred wrote: post #22

I spent some of my formidable years scalping and brokering event (mostly broadway) tickets in various forms. The company I co-founded made a few million and I learned an expensive lesson in equity at age 18 (I opted instead for the $14/hr salary). We worked in broadway (meaning the style of show, not just the street), and I met the Wiseguys folks at secondary market trade shows, but I had no idea they were this big,…

>I have never yet seen a system that cannot be beat by scalpers, including paperless ticketing, and I find that most venues and artists want to maximize profits and, more importantly, minimize risk anyway. What about charging more, so there is less (or zero) spread between what scalpers can charge vs. the official price (or whatever they call it)?

How do scalpers beat will call with photo ID?

Re: A scalper who used bots to buy millions of tickets, now wants to stop them

#220

Post by vacri »

jstanley wrote: post #8

> The scourge of ticket bots and the immorality of the shady ticket scalpers using them is conventional wisdom I very much disagree. If I am willing to pay the asking price for tickets, I should be able to buy them. If you're offering them so cheaply that I will happily buy all of the tickets then you're offering them too cheap and you can't really complain if I buy them. If it weren't for ticket-scalpers, die-hard f…

> If it weren't for ticket-scalpers, die-hard fans who are willing to pay extra to secure a place would have no option.

This is fantasy free-market nonsense. Fan clubs routinely get a round of ticket sales before it's opened up to the general public. It's quite common for an event to have tickets sold in batches to different groups, and for there to be pre-event events as well. If you're willing to pay extra, join a fan club.

It's also faulty reasoning - if other die-hard fans have already bought the tickets from scalpers, you can't just offer more money to the scalper and get one of their tickets. You can, however, buy directly off that other fan, but you can do that already anyway.

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