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Sam Altman talks with Mark Zuckerberg about how to build the future [video]

themacro.com

211–220 of 292 posts

Re: Sam Altman talks with Mark Zuckerberg about how to build the future [video]

#211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How are you going to pay for all those moonshot projects that cost billions and might not make money for a decade, if ever. Google still hasn't made any money on the self-driving car. Oculus Rift?

I don't think Oculus Rift is going anywhere. They bungled that project pretty well. My question was more about your assumption about getting some kind of cash cow and then milking it to provide for "moonshots". It is one model that works but it's not the only one. Well, actually, it's debatable whether it works or not.

What you think about Oculus is irrelevant. FB has the money to see it through, along with dozens of other similar projects. Feel free to explain the other models.

Re: Sam Altman talks with Mark Zuckerberg about how to build the future [video]

#212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think Oculus Rift is going anywhere. They bungled that project pretty well. My question was more about your assumption about getting some kind of cash cow and then milking it to provide for "moonshots". It is one model that works but it's not the only one. Well, actually, it's debatable whether it works or not.

What you think about Oculus is irrelevant. FB has the money to see it through, along with dozens of other similar projects. Feel free to explain the other models.

State sponsored fundamental research for one. Pretty much all of the actual computing innovation was a direct result of fundamental research that was sponsored by the state either directly or indirectly. Heck, modern compilers have a direct line back to Grace Hopper working at the naval research lab.

Commercializing stuff is great and all but there is no point in pretending it is the same or equal to the kind of innovative work that consistently happens at research universities and arguably a lot of the future is invented there even if it is not commercialized.

Also what are these dozens of other projects Facebook is currently innovating on? I do see a lot of duplicated effort across google, facebook, apple, and microsoft when it comes to AI research though. This is why I don't quite get how people can argue for commercial innovation and market efficiency all in the same sentence or paragraph when there is obvious and clear evidence to the contrary.

Re: Sam Altman talks with Mark Zuckerberg about how to build the future [video]

#213
post #164

Anyone have a link to the transcript that's not trapped inside scribd? Really, just plain HTML would've been fine, but instead it's trapped in a PDF that's trapped inside Scribd!

I downloaded the plain text, stripped the line wraps, and put it on Genius.

http://genius.com/Mark-zuckerberg-how-to-build-the-future-ma...

Re: Sam Altman talks with Mark Zuckerberg about how to build the future [video]

#214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Absolutely correct. Zuckerberg lucked into Facebook after stealing the concept from a client. Zuck's self-esteem would be destroyed if he had this same honest evaluation of himself, so he has to tell himself that he made it due to his unusually high work ethic, intelligence, or other personal traits.

Probably the biggest thing I've learned through hard experience is that great ideas by themselves have very little value. At this point it's irrelevant whether he copied the idea from his client(s), or from Friendster or MySpace. Out of pure luck, Zuck's version appealed to the masses enough to get them to register for the site and use the contact importer. After that, skill took over - Zuck knew that if a high enoug…

> Actually, startup ideas are not million dollar ideas, and here's an experiment you can try to prove it: just try to sell one. Nothing evolves faster than markets. The fact that there's no market for startup ideas suggests there's no demand. Which means, in the narrow sense of the word, that startup ideas are worthless.

> —PG, Ideas for Startups (2005)

http://paulgraham.com/ideas.html

Re: Sam Altman talks with Mark Zuckerberg about how to build the future [video]

#215
post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And also be extremely lucky.

"I find that the major objection is that people think great science is done by luck. It's all a matter of luck. Well, consider Einstein. Note how many different things he did that were good. Was it all luck? Wasn't it a little too repetitive? Consider Shannon. He didn't do just information theory. Several years before, he did some other good things and some which are still locked up in the security of cryptography. H…

He got to learn from Myspace and got to build Winklevoss's Harvard Connection for them. After that became great, he did some entirely new stuff thanks to his prepared mind... wait, no, he just ran off with others ideas to implement them himself on a bigger scale... stealing all the glory. Not in same category as Einstein or Shannon at all. ;)

Re: Sam Altman talks with Mark Zuckerberg about how to build the future [video]

#216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

can it? explain.

The fact that they were able to replicate their success multiple times, just like Einstein, and that they're all smart, just like Einstein, says that there's probably some aspect of talent involved in their success. If it was purely based on luck, without any talent involved, you'd expect billion dollar companies to be more evenly distributed, and not cluster among certain individuals.

After you've had success in the valley, people are willing to fling money at you for just about anything.

This factor alone accounts for a large percentage of repeat successes. Square probably never would have obtained the capital necessary to become competitive, had it not been for Twitter.

But honestly, for all their funding, even most of these second tries turn out to be failures. What you're really doing here is confusing selection bias with skill: take a pool of enough entrepreneurs, and eventually, just by chance, you'll find someone who has repeat successes.

Re: Sam Altman talks with Mark Zuckerberg about how to build the future [video]

#217
post #111
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He gave his own facebook stock to his own charity. If you've ever owned a corporation, you know just how cynical, contriving, and conceitful that move is.

That's a generically cynical statement that you don't seem to have any specific basis for. In such cases, for HN purposes you should practice the Principle of Charity and err on the side of giving others the benefit of the doubt. It won't affect Zuckerberg much, but it will make this community better.

You'll find instead that it will turn any community into an echo chamber. This sort of tone policing accomplishes nothing but belittling differing viewpoints and alienating users who may (publically or privately) disagree with charitable interpretations.

When the dust clears, you'll have a harmonious web forum -- in which no information is exchanged.

Re: Sam Altman talks with Mark Zuckerberg about how to build the future [video]

#218
post #111
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He gave his own facebook stock to his own charity. If you've ever owned a corporation, you know just how cynical, contriving, and conceitful that move is.

That's a generically cynical statement that you don't seem to have any specific basis for. In such cases, for HN purposes you should practice the Principle of Charity and err on the side of giving others the benefit of the doubt. It won't affect Zuckerberg much, but it will make this community better.

Ok, trying to follow Principle of Charity before dropping anti-Zuckerberg comment, were you saying the person you replied to might have not tried to understand the real meaning behind the comment they addressed or that we should be giving Zuckerberg's intent the benefit of the doubt at this point?

Re: Sam Altman talks with Mark Zuckerberg about how to build the future [video]

#219

All these comments, yet no mention of how Zuckerberg stole the project from the Winklevoss twins? My, the memory hole is really working great.

It was shocking me too. You're not alone though:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12302303

Re: Sam Altman talks with Mark Zuckerberg about how to build the future [video]

#220

I'm not sure what to think about Mark's non-answer to: "So can you tell us about some of the hardest parts in the history of the early history of Facebook?" (He basically says the hardest point was not selling for $1 billion, and that it was a non-issue months later.)

He also left out the part where investor-genius Peter Thiel was pressuring him very hard to sell Facebook to Yahoo. Peter Thiel almost cost Zuck one of the biggest mistakes in business history. Another inconvenient fact that goes unsaid.

Was is it a mistake? What's the probability of massive success there? In 1000 universes with FB, how many times would FB take off like that?

Groupon's looking silly for not selling at 6BN, at least as a company. (I think they personally made out ok?)

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