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Test your “free will” at the Aaronson Oracle

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Re: Test your “free will” at the Aaronson Oracle

#211
post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To most people, "how predictable you are" and "whether you have free will" are almost the same question.

Those people are wrong. Other commenters dealt with that below. RE free will itself, I'm thinking it has more to do with metacognition and general complexity of thoughts. People may have free will, but they're running the same "free will algorithm" - give them the same inputs, and most of the time you'll get the same outputs. A lot of people don't want to consciously accept that, but it's a fact. It's e.g. why econom…

> "give them the same inputs, and most of the time you'll get the same outputs.... people are predictable at scale."

That's not quite how economics work. It's more like, outputs from a given set of inputs can be characterized in a statistical way at scale (which is subtly different from saying that individuals are predictable at scale.) It's not that every person will choose to buy pizza if it's $11.99 but not if it's $12.00, but instead that if you offer pizza for $11.99 you'll generally get between X and Y sales per day, and if you increase that to $12.00 you can expect to lose about Z sales, and you can mess with that curve to try to maximize revenues or whatever.

I would say that what makes "free will" an interesting concept is that it's about how one chooses to prioritize different values -- how they express meaning by their choices. In the sense of a "free will algorithm", it's how you choose to weight different factors in your algorithm. How do you weight comfort, pleasure, stimulation, challenge, avoidance of pain, etc.? How do you weight those things for others? In practical usage, we talk about "free will" when someone makes a choice that surprises us, showing that their value system or their evaluation matrix is different from ours.

Re: Test your “free will” at the Aaronson Oracle

#212
post #65

When I was little (and had too much free time) I memorized many digits of some transcendental numbers. The only (semi)practical use I've found for that knowledge, is that I can use it as a reasonably good pseudorandom stream. If for some reason I have to choose things pseudorandomly. Pick an arbitrary starting point in pi, and press 'd' for even digits and 'f' for odd digits, I get around 0.49 accuracy with this orac…

but what if the challenge was not 2 chars but 3 (d, e, f)?

pi (base 9) = 3.12418812407442788645177761731035828516545353462652301126321450283864034354163303086781327...

Re: Test your “free will” at the Aaronson Oracle

#215
post #43
post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which 20 questions game?

I'm guessing this: http://en.akinator.com/

I'm guessing http://www.20q.net/, the original pretty impressive online 20 Questions game.

(They were using the grating slogan "the neural net on the Internet" when neural nets were the pariah of AI. It's kind of amazing.)

Re: Test your “free will” at the Aaronson Oracle

#218
post #40

Got it to 0.5991561181434598 after a while (totally random would be "0.5"). Not sure how "free will" comes into play, if there was indeed free will, I could have freely decided to only press one, and the Oracle would have had close to 100% certainty. Rather, what it measures is randomness or predictability, which is not the same thing as free will (especially "after the fact", e.g. after the choice is made).

I was at 53% after about 20 presses, and then by trying hard got it down to 47%.

Don't ask me what 'trying hard' means -- I don't know! :-)

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