Concerns for global spread of Zika mean Rio de Janeiro Olympics must not proceed • Hacker News Board

Re: Concerns for global spread of Zika mean Rio de Janeiro Olympics must not proceed

#211

Post by tribaal » Thu, May 12, 2016, 6:38 AM UTC

xrjn wrote: post #142

tribaal wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most if not all of Switzerland is the same.

There are still some incidents that happen from time to time. In Geneva I've heard of someone going out for a smoke from a hotel accros from the main train station, and getting everything robbed; I've also heard of someone being beat up to the point of loosing an eye in Nyon (a town near Geneva). We also had the famous case of a guy who picked up hitchhikers, assaulted them before killing and abducting their bodies.…

That's a far cry from being unsafe cities :)

Sure, there are isolated anecdotes like the ones you quote - but there is not a single area of either Geneva or Nyon where I wouldn't walk around with an iPhone at night (I grew up in the Nyon region, then moved to Geneva's as a teenager FWIW). The worst that you can expect is someone trying to sell you drugs, or begging, or getting into a drunken argument (like basically anywhere in the world where humans live)

Not to mention, that's probably the "worst" region of the country - I live in Bern now and you'd be hard pressed to find someone who would not bring your iPhone back to you should you leave it on the sidewalk at night.

Re: Concerns for global spread of Zika mean Rio de Janeiro Olympics must not proceed

#212

Post by DannyBee » Thu, May 12, 2016, 7:43 AM UTC

rubidium wrote: post #47

DannyBee wrote: post #33

Serious question: Has anyone seen an article or study about the microcephaly effects on pregnancy where the main population studied was not in brazil? I have yet to see a study that links it to microcephaly for anyone who has not been in brazil for a long time. I realize the mosquito isn't common, but brazil also does things like: "secretly spray tons and tons of pesticide on their populus", etc. Given these are all…

Yes, microcephaly from Zika has been detected in many south american countries. CDC supports the link, as does scientific consensus: http://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2016/s0413-zika-microcepha... It's the fat cats who don't want to move/postpone the Olympics most. They have the most to lose.

Thanks, this is incredibly helpful.

Re: Concerns for global spread of Zika mean Rio de Janeiro Olympics must not proceed

#213

Post by DannyBee » Wed, May 18, 2016, 10:57 PM UTC

mixmastamyk wrote: post #92

DannyBee wrote: post #33

Serious question: Has anyone seen an article or study about the microcephaly effects on pregnancy where the main population studied was not in brazil? I have yet to see a study that links it to microcephaly for anyone who has not been in brazil for a long time. I realize the mosquito isn't common, but brazil also does things like: "secretly spray tons and tons of pesticide on their populus", etc. Given these are all…

Article said the virulent strain came from French Polynesia (aka Tahiti).

French polynesia is not tahiti. Tahiti is one of the islands (rangiroa, moorea are other examples). Tahiti is the most populous, but if you read the study, it does not say tahiti.

Most of the other islands are remarkably small.

Note also that the methodology used in that study (http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-67...) is a retrospective analysis of data that uses somewhat ... almost laughable assumptions-

Modelling assumptions for estimation of risk of microcephaly associated with Zika virus infection: ...

•All microcephaly cases in the study period have been identified

•The birth rate is constant during the study period and can be estimated from official statistics

•The number of Zika virus infections in a given week is proportional to the number of consultations for suspected infection in the same week

Note the last one: They are estimating actual zika infections not from zika infections, but from consultations of people suspected to have zika and the percent who were later found to have zika.

So how accurate is such a "suspicion based consultation"?

By the end of the outbreak, public health officials had recorded 8750 suspected infections with Zika virus, of which 383 (4.4%) were confirmed in the laboratory.

At this point, i'm going to suggest maybe their assumptions are not quite as strong as they think they are.

....