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A Basic Income Should Be the Next Big Thing

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Re: A Basic Income Should Be the Next Big Thing

#211

Post by xienze »

corin_ wrote: post #127
cmdli wrote: post #43

From the $1 trillon stated in the article, spread across 300 million people, each person would get around $3000 a year. That honestly doesn't seem like it would help a lot, considering it would replace current welfare systems. The Swiss proposal of around $2600 a month, implemented in the US, would cost nearly $10 trillion a year which doesn't really seem feasible. I don't think the problem with basic income is an id…

> The Swiss proposal of around $2600 a month, implemented in the US, would cost nearly $10 trillion a year which doesn't really seem feasible. That number sounds higher than it would effectively be: 1) The population is ~320m, but ~65m of those are under the age of 16 (add on another 8m if you say under 18), who presumably don't need the same $2600/month right from when they are babies. That shaves of $2.8trillion 2)…

> we have $3.2trillion left to find.

Bear in mind that the current US budget is $3.8 trillion dollars. So even in this best case scenario we have to nearly double our budget. There just isn't enough income to make this work.

Re: A Basic Income Should Be the Next Big Thing

#213

Post by blfr »

yummyfajitas wrote: post #146
gjm11 wrote: post #99

This article says it's talking about a universal basic income, and makes the usual point that a completely universal, no-strings-attached income is simple to administer, doesn't have poverty traps, etc. And then, towards the end where it starts looking at numbers, it starts saying things like > But by excluding 45 million retirees who already receive a basic income through Social Security, the cost falls to $2.7 tril…

It's not just wealthier people who will be worse off - it's everyone. Basic income is known to create a large disincentive for work. In previous experiments (Mincome) labor supply dropped by about 10% - double what happened during the great recession. This means that fewer working mothers can find child care, fewer laborers to mow your lawn, fewer nurses, fewer teachers, etc. No matter how much money you give to peop…

You have been arguing against basic income for years now, and with some really good points[1], but I think you consistently miss the main attraction of the idea to the HN crowd.

Many here believe that if people weren't forced to work for income, they would be doing things that are more valuable but also more difficult to monetize (at least initially but perhaps generally), like open source development. There is an underlying belief that vast creative talents are untapped or wasted because of the need to work for money. It's the intellectual's dream lifestyle. One that used to be possible for writers and academics.

Other reasons are largely an afterthought. That's why basic job for example is not a convincing counterargument despite the numbers. This is not really about helping the poor, that would be an auxiliary benefit at best.

[1] https://www.chrisstucchio.com/blog/2013/basic_income_vs_basi...

Re: A Basic Income Should Be the Next Big Thing

#214

Post by taigeair »

MicroBerto wrote: post #202

In the early 1970s, animal behaviorist John Calhoun built a "mouse utopia" to see what would happen if he created the perfect world for mice, with unlimited food, starting with four males and four females, that could reach a population of 2500. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Z760XNy4VM What happened next is absolutely astonishing. When the mice had nothing to do and nothing to work for, their society collapsed upon…

Good point and interesting study. I do think people are different because of art and education, but I can imagine how it could lead to the feeling of meaninglessness.

Re: A Basic Income Should Be the Next Big Thing

#215

Post by pbhjpbhj »

MicroBerto wrote: post #202

In the early 1970s, animal behaviorist John Calhoun built a "mouse utopia" to see what would happen if he created the perfect world for mice, with unlimited food, starting with four males and four females, that could reach a population of 2500. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Z760XNy4VM What happened next is absolutely astonishing. When the mice had nothing to do and nothing to work for, their society collapsed upon…

Do mice have a concept of leisure? Exploration for its own sake? Cultural enrichment? Scientific endeavour?

Also, in that experiment isn't there a complete excess of resources? We certainly don't have that, opulence would still be expensive and out of reach of a BI.

Re: A Basic Income Should Be the Next Big Thing

#216

Post by slowmotiony »

wiz21c wrote: post #188
newjersey wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm one of the people who supports excluding people under the age of eighteen from basic income.

You do realize that there are people less than eighteen years old who are parents ?

So? They will get the money when they are 18, the rules work the same way for everyone.

Re: A Basic Income Should Be the Next Big Thing

#217

Post by mason55 »

schrodinger wrote: post #189
yummyfajitas wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not just wealthier people who will be worse off - it's everyone. Basic income is known to create a large disincentive for work. In previous experiments (Mincome) labor supply dropped by about 10% - double what happened during the great recession. This means that fewer working mothers can find child care, fewer laborers to mow your lawn, fewer nurses, fewer teachers, etc. No matter how much money you give to peop…

Is 10% less work necessarily a bad thing? Couldn't this be supplemented with technology via automation?

Think about all the automation improvements blocked by unions. With UBI you'd likely have much less of that.

Re: A Basic Income Should Be the Next Big Thing

#218

Post by MicroBerto »

minsight wrote: post #208
MicroBerto wrote: post #202

In the early 1970s, animal behaviorist John Calhoun built a "mouse utopia" to see what would happen if he created the perfect world for mice, with unlimited food, starting with four males and four females, that could reach a population of 2500. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Z760XNy4VM What happened next is absolutely astonishing. When the mice had nothing to do and nothing to work for, their society collapsed upon…

I'm pretty sure that animal behaviour doesn't necessarily map perfectly onto human behaviour.

Of course it's not perfect. But when something we're proposing has once resulted in total catastrophe (complete end of civilization), it's worth researching a hell of a lot more.

This is why I feel any democracy is eventually doomed to fail. People will vote themselves more and more free stuff, but "free stuff" ultimately defeats the will of the human spirit.

It's worth researching more, but everybody just seems to focus on the economic impact and not the social one. If you think this will end crime, then I have a bridge to sell to you.

Re: A Basic Income Should Be the Next Big Thing

#219

Post by lsaferite »

yummyfajitas wrote: post #182
pjc50 wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except it's not simple arithmetic, because the normal economy doesn't count - cannot assign - a value to work done for yourself or your family. Someone going out to work and paying a large fraction of their income for child care is counted, whereas someone staying home and looking after their children is not. Only the first has value in an economic sense. Is it the only work that has value in a moral sense?

Sure it does. A highly skilled working mother produces $X value per hour, and she can afford to spend $Y In contrast, the unskilled woman who might otherwise work in day care only produces $X value/hour. By taking the unskilled woman out of the labor force, you've destroyed $Y - $X of value.

Aren't you missing a variable for the cost the unskilled woman pays to have someone watch her children while she's being paid to watch the skilled woman's children?
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