Earlier quoted context omitted.
If you take the quote above, and substitute the word "guns" for "AI", you basically have the NRA, and the NRA is not making the world a safer place. They may actually be. Although mostly not in the way you're talking about, but there is something to be said for the dispersing of power. If one or two players have a power no one else has, there's more temptation to use it. If it's widely distributed, it seems reasonabl…
If we're focused on weapons of mass destruction, I prefer a world of nuclear nonproliferation to the opposite. There are relatively few nations that possess nuclear weapons, and we have very few instances of them using those weapons against anyone else. To argue against myself, I'd say that the difference between weapons and AI is that AI is more general. It's not just a killing machine. In fact, I hope that killing…
Introducing OpenAI
211–220 of 392 posts
Re: Introducing OpenAI
#212Who are the actual staff involved? What sort of things have they worked on and published before?
> OpenAI's research director is Ilya Sutskever, one of the world experts in machine learning. Our CTO is Greg Brockman, formerly the CTO of Stripe. The group's other founding members are world-class research engineers and scientists: Trevor Blackwell, Vicki Cheung, Andrej Karpathy, Durk Kingma, John Schulman, Pamela Vagata, and Wojciech Zaremba. Pieter Abbeel, Yoshua Bengio, Alan Kay, Sergey Levine, and Vishal Sikka…
Quite surprised to see so many corporate AI people being in on this. I'd have thought that Google and Facebook would prefer to keep their research secret.
Re: Introducing OpenAI
#213Earlier quoted context omitted.
'The "evil" AI and safety stuff is just science fiction, but whatever.' umm... you can offer proof that we have nothing to worry about? Does the proof go like: Just as all people are inherently good, therefore all AIs will be inherently good? Or is it more like: since we can now safely contain all evil people, therefore we will be able to safely contain evil AIs? Sounds to me like there is some risk, no?
As I've said many times on HN over the years, there is currently no clear path to science fiction like "AI". To return your question, hopefully without being rude, is there any proof that AI capable of having a moral disposition will ever exist? Andrew Ng (I believe) compared worrying about evil AI to worrying about overpopulation on Mars. Which is to say, the problem is so far off that it's rather silly to be consid…
I would suggest you read the history of the Manhattan project if you want to continue in your belief system regarding "impossible" deadly technology.
Re: Introducing OpenAI
#214I can't think of another field of research that's simultaneously brought the potential to solve all the world's problems and the potential to end life as we know it. Very appreciative to see so many great minds working on ensuring AI heralds in more of the former, and none of the latter.
Re: Introducing OpenAI
#215Earlier quoted context omitted.
'The "evil" AI and safety stuff is just science fiction, but whatever.' umm... you can offer proof that we have nothing to worry about? Does the proof go like: Just as all people are inherently good, therefore all AIs will be inherently good? Or is it more like: since we can now safely contain all evil people, therefore we will be able to safely contain evil AIs? Sounds to me like there is some risk, no?
The burden of proof is on the people warning us of the impending AI apocalypse. The fact is we are nowhere close to AI. We don't understand how the brain works. A review of the ML literature will also show we barely understand how neural nets work.
Note: I'm personally not too worried about the AI apocalypse, but I think "we don't even understand neural nets" should cause more concern, not less.
Re: Introducing OpenAI
#216Earlier quoted context omitted.
We do?? Humans have been known to eat practically every animal, even those they use as beasts of burden or as working animals. EDIT: Just to be clear when I talk about enslaving animals I'm referring to use of animals in law enforcement, medicine, war, farming, hunting, for companionship, for food production, material production etc.
I was mainly thinking about food supply and medical testing but I think the rest apply as well. For instance I think it's generally considered more ethical to perform lethal medical testing on rats than gorillas. I think that's got a lot to do with species intelligence. There are plenty of people who don't weigh the ethics at all and just eat whatever animal they want, but in many societies eating a dolphin or a gori…
Re: Introducing OpenAI
#217Man I dunno about some of this media hype surrounding the topic of AI. I understand how powerful ML/AI algorithms are for general pattern matching (with a big enough computer, gradient descent can learn a lot of things...), but this whole skynet/doomsday fear thing seems ridiculous. I guess the risk is embedding into systems that manage missiles or something. But you don't need sophisticated algorithms for that to be…
I like how your comment goes from no issues to alarmist.
Re: Introducing OpenAI
#218What I want to know is whether there's collaboration with MIRI. On safety, especially.
Re: Introducing OpenAI
#219> Musk: I think the best defense against the misuse of AI is to empower as many people as possible to have AI. If everyone has AI powers, then there’s not any one person or a small set of individuals who can have AI superpower. In a sense, we have no other defense. AI is just math and code, and I know of no way to distinguish good linear algebra from evil linear algebra. The barriers to putting that math and code tog…
* Two guys with pistols in a crowded bar: Attacker is favored.
* Trench warfare during WWI: Defender is favored.
* Nukes: Attacker is favored, although with the invention of nuclear submarines that could lurk under the ocean and offer credible retaliation even in the event of a devastating strike, the attacker became favored less.
In general equilibria where the defender is favored seem better. Venice became one of the wealthier cities in the medieval world because it was situated in a lagoon that gave it a strong defensive advantage. The Chinese philosopher Mozi was one of the first consequentialist philosophers; during the Warring States period his followers went around advancing the state of the art in defensive siege warfare tactics: http://www.tor.com/2015/02/09/let-me-tell-you-a-little-bit-a...
Notably, I'm told that computer security current favors attackers in most areas: http://lesswrong.com/lw/dq9/work_on_security_instead_of_frie... (BTW the author of this post is a potential Satoshi Nakamoto candidate and knows his stuff.)
In equilibria where the attacker is favored, the best solution is to have some kind of trusted central power with a monopoly on force that keeps the peace between everyone. That's what a modern state looks like. Even prisoners form their own semiformal governing structures, with designated ruling authorities, to deal with the fact that prison violence favors the attacker: http://www.econtalk.org/archives/2015/03/david_skarbek_o.htm...
Thought experiment: Let's say someone invents a personal force field that grants immunity to fists and bullets. In this world you can imagine that the need for a police force, and therefore the central state authority that manages the use of this police force, lessens considerably. The enforcement powers available to a central government also lessen considerably.
This is somewhat similar to the situation with online communities. We don't have a central structure governing discussions on the web because online communities favor the defender. It's relatively easy to ban users based on their IP address or simply lock new users out of your forum entirely and therebye keep the troll mobs out. Hence the internet gives us something like Scott Alexander's idea of "Archipelago" where people get to be a part of the community they want (and deserve): http://slatestarcodex.com/2014/06/07/archipelago-and-atomic-... Note the work done by the word "archipelago" which implies islands that are easy to defend and hard to attack (like Venice).
Let's assume that superintelligent AI, when weaponized, shoves us into an entirely new and unexplored conflict equilibrium.
If the new equilibrium favors defense we'd like to give everyone AIs so they can create their own atomic communities. If only a few people have AIs, they might be able to monopolize AI tech and prevent anyone else from getting one, though the info could leak eventually.
If the new equilibrium favors offense we'd like to keep AIs in the hands of a small set of trusted, well-designed institutions--the same way we treat nuclear weapons. It could be that at the highest level of technological development, physics overwhelmingly favors offense. If everyone has AIs there's the possibility of destructive anarchy. In this world, research on the design of trustworthy, robust, inclusive institutions (to manage a monopoly on AI-created power) could be seen as AI safety research.
The great filter http://waitbutwhy.com/2014/05/fermi-paradox.html weakly suggests that the new equilibrium favors offense. If the new equilibrium favors defense, even the "worst case scenario" autocratic regimes would have had plenty of time to colonize the galaxy by now. If the new equilibrium favors offense, it's entirely possible that civs reaching the superintelligent AI stage always destroy themselves in destructive anarchy and go no further. But the great filter is a very complicated topic and this line of reasoning has caveats, e.g. see http://lesswrong.com/lw/m2x/resolving_the_fermi_paradox_new_...
Anyway this entire comment is basically spitballing... point is that if $1B+ is going to be spent on this project, I would like to see at least a fraction of this capital go towards hammering issues like these out. (It'd be cool to set up an institute devoted to studying the great filter for instance.) As Enrico Fermi said:
"History of science and technology has consistently taught us that scientific advances in basic understanding have sooner or later led to technical and industrial applications that have revolutionized our way of life... What is less certain, and what we all fervently hope, is that man will soon grow sufficiently adult to make good use of the powers that he acquires over nature."
And I'm slightly worried that by virtue of choosing the name OpenAI, the team has committed themselves to a particular path without fully thinking it through.
Re: Introducing OpenAI
#220Earlier quoted context omitted.
Improvements in AI aren't linear, though. Artificial Superintelligence, after reaching AGI, might happen in the span of minutes or days. I imagine the idea here is to guide progress so that on the day that AGI is possible, we've already thoroughly considered what happens after that point. Secondly - it's not necessarily about 'evil' AI. It's about AI indifferent to human life. Have a look at this article, it provides…
> Improvements in AI aren't linear, though This is a point everyone makes, but it hasn't been proven anywhere. Progress in AI as a field has always been a cycle of hype and cool-down. Edit (reply to below). Talk about self-bootstrapping AIs, etc. is just speculation.