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Foreign business owners are scrambling to raise capital to stay in Japan

tokyopaladin.substack.com

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Re: Foreign business owners are scrambling to raise capital to stay in Japan

#201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm explaining why Japan is doing this. A lot of people don't understand why Japan would do this when their population is already declining. It's because to the working class, a declining population isn't the most pressing issue. In fact, some of them may even want that because it means more resources to everyone else. Mass importing immigrants causes many issues for locals. Anyone who denies this is simply virtue si…

I'm sorry but you're spewing a lot of misinformation here. Japan's relationship with immigration is complex but what you're talking about really has nothing to do with the business manager visa. Japan continues to "import" larger and larger numbers of foreign workers to do jobs that it doesn't have enough native-born workers to perform. Think factory workers, nurses, truck drivers, retail. The problem with the busine…

  Japan continues to "import" larger and larger numbers of foreign workers to do jobs that it doesn't have enough native-born workers to perform. Think factory workers, nurses, truck drivers, retail.
This is the exact thing I'm talking about. Good for business owners and government. Complicated for working class Japanese people.

Re: Foreign business owners are scrambling to raise capital to stay in Japan

#202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm sorry but you're spewing a lot of misinformation here. Japan's relationship with immigration is complex but what you're talking about really has nothing to do with the business manager visa. Japan continues to "import" larger and larger numbers of foreign workers to do jobs that it doesn't have enough native-born workers to perform. Think factory workers, nurses, truck drivers, retail. The problem with the busine…

Japan continues to "import" larger and larger numbers of foreign workers to do jobs that it doesn't have enough native-born workers to perform. Think factory workers, nurses, truck drivers, retail. This is the exact thing I'm talking about. Good for business owners and government. Complicated for working class Japanese people.

> Complicated for working class Japanese people.

It's complicated from a cultural perspective because Japanese are fiercely proud and protective of their culture and, many would argue, xenophobic.

It is not complicated from an economic perspective. There simply aren't enough working-age Japanese to fill these roles.

As Japan ages, it is already struggling to maintain critical services, such as caretaking for the elderly. Without immigration, it would eventually face economy-stopping labor shortages.

The tension is between Japan's demographic reality and economic needs, and its idealistic cultural/religious/historical beliefs.

You cannot maintain the world's fifth-largest economy with a population that has lost 3 million people in the past 5 years that is losing somewhere between 250-500,000 working age people a year and will have more than 40% of its population over 60 by 2030.

And, I would argue, you cannot maintain a belief system structured around the ideas of genetic, cultural and historical superiority when you've had a fertility rate below the replacement rate since 1974.

This doesn't mean that Japan should open the gates to unchecked immigration (there are practical reasons it can't anyway) but having spent a good deal of time there I feel OK to say: Japan is dying and people need to accept it so that they can address it.

Re: Foreign business owners are scrambling to raise capital to stay in Japan

#203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but isn't it better viewed as the cost of doing business? That assumes we couldn’t get the number of skilled workers we want without allowing them to bring over their parents, siblings, etc. I don’t think that’s true, especially these days. I bet you could easily fill the 65,000 H1B seats just with unmarried foreign students studying in American colleges. I don’t think the system was ever designed with the idea tha…

Your reasoning only works if you place zero value on family or only want students or similar. I'm not necessarily saying that's wrong - I'm sure a cohesive position that includes that could be argued - but it's far from being a default assumption. To illustrate the point lets extend your line of reasoning to the absurd by imagining a policy that doesn't permit for one's spouse to immigrate. After all, if we're heavil…

I like your efficiency metric. I think that captures it nicely. My complaint is the efficiency metric is very low in practice, like under 25%. We can disagree on that but I think you see how I’m looking at the issue.

Re: Foreign business owners are scrambling to raise capital to stay in Japan

#204
post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48541141

Did you miss the last part? > suddenly it's basically all downside for the country and the people living there

For the target country, i.e. the country with the rental. The comment I'm responding to implied it's also bad for the extractor's own home country, and I was asking how that could be if the money is being injected into their local economy.

Re: Foreign business owners are scrambling to raise capital to stay in Japan

#205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The returns just don’t really make sense for me, but I’m not a CPA. The returns don’t seem substantially better than an index fund, it’s a headache to deal with, and if housing actually becomes affordable then you’re upside down (and the govt might air drop cash on upside down mortgages, probably not if you’re already paid off). Not my forte though and I hand-waved the hell out of that math, maybe I’m way off. Just f…

No you're correct. I think the only thing you're missing is that the risk profile is entirely different from an index fund. The hit you take on returns might be worth it to you as a hedge against disastrous market conditions. Also if your business is real estate then you probably operate more efficiently due to integration and scale plus the rental could be part of a longer term redevelopment plan.

> The hit you take on returns might be worth it to you as a hedge against disastrous market conditions.

Ahh, that does make more sense.

I do 100% believe there's an economy of scale there. Even just being large enough to employ an in-house repair person would probably be a huge savings. There's a lot of stuff anyone that can swing a hammer could fix that you end up hiring expensive tradesmen to do when you're not local.

Re: Foreign business owners are scrambling to raise capital to stay in Japan

#206
I live in Japan, and this tracks with what I’ve seen over the past few years. There has been a noticeable increase in Chinese-run Airbnbs, especially in tourist areas.

I’ve also heard of quite a few problems with some of these properties, such as operators not meeting licensing requirements or causing issues with nearby residents.

Japan also has a relatively generous social security system, especially national health insurance, which makes medical costs extremely low compared with many other countries. So I can see why this kind of route would keep attracting people from overseas.

Re: Foreign business owners are scrambling to raise capital to stay in Japan

#207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Japan continues to "import" larger and larger numbers of foreign workers to do jobs that it doesn't have enough native-born workers to perform. Think factory workers, nurses, truck drivers, retail. This is the exact thing I'm talking about. Good for business owners and government. Complicated for working class Japanese people.

> Complicated for working class Japanese people. It's complicated from a cultural perspective because Japanese are fiercely proud and protective of their culture and, many would argue, xenophobic. It is not complicated from an economic perspective. There simply aren't enough working-age Japanese to fill these roles. As Japan ages, it is already struggling to maintain critical services, such as caretaking for the elde…

It isn’t hard to get. Working class do not think a declining population is bad for themselves. They’re probably right. It’s bad for businesses and government though.

Re: Foreign business owners are scrambling to raise capital to stay in Japan

#208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Complicated for working class Japanese people. It's complicated from a cultural perspective because Japanese are fiercely proud and protective of their culture and, many would argue, xenophobic. It is not complicated from an economic perspective. There simply aren't enough working-age Japanese to fill these roles. As Japan ages, it is already struggling to maintain critical services, such as caretaking for the elde…

It isn’t hard to get. Working class do not think a declining population is bad for themselves. They’re probably right. It’s bad for businesses and government though.

> Working class do not think a declining population is bad for themselves.

A declining population is objectively bad for working-class Japanese. The key reasons:

1. Labor shortages. Manufacturing, education, food processing, transportation and healthcare cannot find enough workers, putting immense strain on exports, domestic supplies, access to services and overall quality of life.

2. Domestic consumption. Obviously, this engine of any advanced economy declines as population ages and declines. This makes economic growth all but impossible to achieve and reduces opportunities for working age Japanese.

3. Pension and healthcare. Young workers support the state safety net. When young people have to support too many old people, the young people carry an unbelievable financial burden that prevents them from getting ahead. In Japan, the old age dependency ratio is crazy high. It's like 50 dependents for every 100 workers, one of the highest ratios in the world. For comparison, in the US, you have roughly 25-30 dependents for every 100 workers.

4. Rural death. Entire municipalities all over Japan are basically going extinct as their populations die off and the young people left behind move to the cities. There are over 9 million vacant homes in Japan now. Obviously, this phenomenon places financial strain on communities, who then need more support from the central government. And the biggest issue is that eventually the infrastructure (roads, rail, hospitals, retail, etc.) in these areas basically dies.

Average people might not think too deeply about this topic, might not educate themselves about it, and might even fall victim to propaganda that preys on their angst and fears. But the economic and societal impacts of a collapsing population are well-established. There is nothing good for Japan about its collapsing population, which is why the government is treating it like an existential emergency and taking pretty extreme action. The question is whether the action is too late and not extreme enough.

Re: Foreign business owners are scrambling to raise capital to stay in Japan

#209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Anyway, migration is a human right. Not having states with citizenship is not a human right. >Sure. But culture changes all the time! Not even remotely at the current speed. If it did many of the cultures and ethnicities in europe simply wouldn't exist. Also your image of free unlimited migration runs into endless historical examples to the contrary.

> Not having states with citizenship is not a human right. Double negatives in English are difficult to parse, and I can read this two ways: - "There is no legal entitlement to migration." - "Citizenship is a human right, and must be exclusionary lest new citizens dilute the value of existing citizenships, ergo any policy that makes citizenship easier to obtain is a violation of human rights." As a statement of fact,…

> I can also bring up plenty of historical counterexamples to free speech as a human right

I think human rights are an abstract western concept that aren't as universal as the definitions like to claim. The free speech thing for example is not upheld in the vast majority of muslim countries when it comes to various discussions and criticism of religion. And that's a ton of countries.

There's other examples as well,.

>Most historical examples of states suppressing migration were just as interested in keeping people from leaving as they were concerned with those entering.

I don't think so tho it's of no matter to the discussion. At the end of the day keeping people from leaving was far more difficult than keeping people from coming in to the place where one did have power and jurisdiction.

>This practice continued all the way until the Soviet Union made this policy so onerous that the US decided that it would only trade with "non-market economies" if they abolished their exit visas. Emigration is already a legally recognized human right and any country that does not let its citizens leave is rightfully attacked as despotic.

India is one such country today and they trade just fine. That's not to say that I think it's just.

>As for culture, uh... I'm not sure what kind of point you're trying to make. Even if every country in Europe were sealed off from one another, the culture of today would be dramatically different from 40 years ago, or 40 years from now.

Not in the same way in any shape or form. Despite americanisation, other international influences and local cultural changes I found the culture of my great grandparents recognisable and familiar and can trace the family back hundreds of years in that same spot. Look at the census list from napoleonic times and all the other family names sound familiar too. I have their mannerisms, I speak their dialect, i speak their language, i eat their foods, etc. If i go to an open air museum to look at one of the dwellings from hundreds of years I find a ton of design elements that are essentially the ones I found in my great grandparents farm.

Mind you there are strong differences still and they exist even within less than 40 years but there's an obvious difference between those two kind of changes that one can only look past if they're wilfully doing so.

For example on the contrary I go to my capital and it's surroundings and they don't have the dialects there from a century ago. In fact they don't even speak the same language. Consequentially they watch different media and vote differently. They don't identify themselves with the people that existed there a century ago and to top it off and all of it led to sectarianism affecting our politics to this day. (which was utterly predictable.) There was a second wave of external migration mostly in the last 2 decades leading to those with national descent being about 20% of the population of which less than a quarter speak the old language (typically without the old dialects). This is Brussels I'm talking about and the same change that happened there now happens across the country at a slower (read historically breakneck) speed.

It has proven not to be beneficial for the local population (unemployment is trough the roof, there's a ton of religious radicalism, outsized crime and integration issues, etc) We also still live in a context where a fully sovereign nation has control over who it accepts and were it fully democratic it would answer to it's citizens who when faced with migration that does not serve them would mostly block it. Not by building a wall but by simply barring from the privileges and functions required to exist in society.

Every country does that to some extent and so I'd say the universal part of this supposed human right is so universally rejected that it can't be called one at all.

Re: Foreign business owners are scrambling to raise capital to stay in Japan

#210
post #47
post #2

A large number of Airbnb hosts were using this Business Manager Visa as a way to stay in Japan. People in China realized they could just buy/lease a guesthouse in Osaka / any tourist hotspot, and rent it out on Airbnb. Then they become a "business manager" and get a Japanese resident visa within 3 months. All you needed is to invest 5million yen, which is like 31k USD, which isn't much. People wrote entire online gui…

Yep. There was also a proliferation of Indian restaurants in the major cities, for the same basic reason. (Though I have to say that seems like a much harder road than operating a guesthouse for people from your own country, which is what I presume was the Chinese approach.) Since you can bring in relatives on this kind of visa, I’ve heard the expression “One curry pot equals three people” . There have been stories i…

> much harder road

Given that we have 2+ in each high street in Berlin, it seems it's not that difficult.

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