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Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

reuters.com

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Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#201

Post by [deleted] »

littlecranky67 wrote: post #126
rapind wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except it generally worked for gambling for a very very long time. The existence of a black market does not mean something should be legal. Human trafficking happens, but that doesn't mean we should legalize and tax it. (extreme example I realize, but I use it to illustrate a point)

Pushing it to black markets takes away the possibility of heavy regulation (which absolutely should be in place), and stigmatises victims (gamblers), making it harder to come clean to friends and family. I agree with your assesment that no one should even start to gamble, I just doubt that declaring it illegal will achieve that.

[deleted]

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#202

Post by Zigurd »

linuxhansl wrote: post #105

Good. Just naming things differently does not work in other countries. If it quacks like a duck, swims like a duck, and looks like a duck, then it probably is a duck.

This is a big part of the reason we have judges, and why we should not replace them with LLMs.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#203

Post by lxgr »

seydor wrote: post #132
flexagoon wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the term "market" comes from the fact that it uses stock market–like pricing and allows you to sell your bets at any time. Ie. you buy "shares" of some outcome for 0.3$ if the probability is 30%, and then if the probability at any point goes to 50%, you can sell the "shares" for 0.5$ each. (Which of course doesn't make it any better or less of a casino, this is just to say that the word market didn't come fro…

sure, a bet market which is gambling, not a 'prediction market'. those are not predictions

You can gamble on the stock exchange, just like you can "non-gamblingly" hedge certain risks by buying/selling certain financial products such as event futures. (Many insurance policies are structurally just that and are used for very boring non-gambling purposes!)

I don't think you'll find a simple/useful answer by slicing the problem on that axis.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#204

Post by gchamonlive »

ifdefdebug wrote: post #140
throwawa1 wrote: post #31

When I see people making money on Iran attacks, and murder of heads of state - it shows clearly something is deeply wrong with Polymarket. Its a level worse than Vegas or Indian casinos. A literal ticket to hell. I'm all for banning these evil sites.

well I see more problematic the people actually doing the Iran attacks and murder of heads of state. Betting on those is distasteful, but doing those things is where the damage lies.

It's not because specifically with these markets there is an amplification effect where the one doing the bet creates incentives for what it's betting in favor or against to materialize in the world.

In other words the money spent on bets that involve killing directly foments more killing.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#205

Post by Zigurd »

theragra wrote: post #118
throwawaypath wrote: post #76

Polymarket is a casino. A roulette wheel is not a "market". You can't beat the house.

There is no house? Betting is against other players

There is a house and the house takes a rake just like a poker room. And a poker room is clearly not a securities exchange.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#206

Post by Ekaros »

hmry wrote: post #11
solenoid0937 wrote: post #7

These - especially Polymarket - should be illegal globally, as they incentivize people with power to manipulate the real world in horribly destructive ways to win a bet. I would not be surprised if people are murdered at some point to reap the payout of some related bet.

Yeah. You aren't allowed to set up a life insurance policy on someone else's life, or a fire insurance policy on someone else's home. For obvious reasons. But buying an event contract that pays if someone dies or someone's house burns down is fine?

Remember how things ended up when insurance policies on loans you didn't hold were allowed... I think there is quite a lot of good reasons to ban those sort of bets.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#207

Post by strathmeyer »

throwawa1 wrote: post #31

When I see people making money on Iran attacks, and murder of heads of state - it shows clearly something is deeply wrong with Polymarket. Its a level worse than Vegas or Indian casinos. A literal ticket to hell. I'm all for banning these evil sites.

[dead]

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#208

Post by dgellow »

abc123abc123 wrote: post #110
solenoid0937 wrote: post #7

These - especially Polymarket - should be illegal globally, as they incentivize people with power to manipulate the real world in horribly destructive ways to win a bet. I would not be surprised if people are murdered at some point to reap the payout of some related bet.

Insider trading is already illegal. What needs to be regulated is not markets, it is politicians. Once that is done, markets can peacefully continue the way they are.

Those markets are pretty much designed to facilitate insider trading

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#209

Post by ddp26 »

I see a lot of comments like this is the blocking of prediction markets about politics, war, etc.

It's important to remember that ~80% of activity Polymarket and ~90% of Kalshi, by volume, are sports. These are effectively sports betting websites with prediction markets on the side.

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