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Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets

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Re: Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets

#201

Post by Otek »

chadgpt3 wrote: post #197
Broken_Hippo wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you don't actually sell someone something illegal, but take them to buy illegal things using the safety of your car so they avoid detection - are you innocent? Drinking and driving exists and is illegal, but going to the grocery store isn't. Should we do an all or nothing sort of ban, either allowing drunk driving or banning cars altogether? No one would do this - some uses are illegal, most aren't. A law that all…

If you are a taxi company and a bank robber takes a taxi to the bank, are you innocent?

Yes? I mean it depends probably but by default - yes

Re: Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets

#202

Post by Kubuxu »

ericmay wrote: post #44
superfrank wrote: post #34

For the record, Minnesota currently has a complete ban on sports betting. We've seen a couple other states that allow sports betting go after prediction markets. Personally, I feel that any state that allows sports betting is going to struggle to argue a case to ban prediction markets because you're essentially arguing over implementation details. Even arguments that certain prediction markets are ripe for insider tr…

I think you could make a case in separating the two, of course opening further discussion, but because sports betting takes place in a comparatively very controlled environment I think the risk profile is pretty different versus, idk, betting that the temperate will be at or above a certain point and then someone sticks a hair dryer on the thermostat[1]. Cheating can happen in sports of course, but the risk profile a…

> So you read an article "China disappears random person" and then at the end you click a button and bet whether that person is alive or dead or whatever.

Congratulations, you just created a murder market. Create “Is person X dead?”, and put a large limit order buying No. Anyone with means can capitalise on it by fulfilling the physical obligation of the market and buying up the limit order. Don’t create the murder market.

---

It would be a stupid thing to do given the trail, bit it gives the person ordering it sort of plausible deniability.

Re: Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets

#203

Post by autoexec »

RajT88 wrote: post #137
_--__--__ wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most available data suggests that sports betting is much worse for the people making the bets, as it better targets people with poor impulse control. Bad bets in political markets aren't causing measurable increases in bankruptcy and domestic violence rates ( https://thezvi.substack.com/p/the-online-sports-gambling-exp... ).

I live in IL, and digital slots have taken over so many spaces. Online sports betting is bad enough, but more than that is going on. Not just bars, but restaurants. Places you might take a date for nice Italian food have little corners with digital slots. Gas stations, Taco joints, sometimes an entire business in a strip mall dedicated to digital slots. It's insane. The only place like it I'd seen prior to a some yea…

I passed through some of the cities around Chicago and was shocked by seeing the random slot machines everywhere. It brought to mind the hospital scene in idiocracy https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wymc2SGJkk0

That said, I actually played one at a restaurant while waiting for a carry out order and it ended up killing some time and paying for our meal that day. The impending downfall of society paid off for me that afternoon.

Re: Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets

#204

Post by autoexec »

Imnimo wrote: post #62

I could imagine cases where prediction markets could offer some actual insight, but in practice they seem few and far between. Most markets I've seen devolve into one or more of: betting on unimportant events (e.g. sports games), insider trading, or poorly written ambiguous resolution criteria. It's just hard for me to imagine that, on net, these markets will offer more societal good than the harm we've seen from spo…

> I could imagine cases where prediction markets could offer some actual insight

I could imagine that there's very little insight to be gained when some 23 year old has so little hope for his financial future that he's spending some of what he earned last night delivering food for uber eats on making a completely uninformed bet on a geopolitical situation involving a country he couldn't even find on a map just in case it pays out well enough that he can afford some of the needed medical care he's been putting off. That's the type of user I imagine most people participating in prediction markets are. It's telling that the vast majority of the people making bets lose their money. Are their predictions really valuable data?

Re: Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets

#206

Post by matttproud »

UberFly wrote: post #195
matttproud wrote: post #194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good on Minnesota.

Not even. Minnesota is fine with betting as long as it is tribal betting and lawmakers are getting their share of the cut. Look it up.

I lived there, and I am familiar with that. I would be happy if they did away with all of it, including the state-administered lottery. But this is a great start of low-hanging fruit.

Re: Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets

#207

Post by epolanski »

superfrank wrote: post #34

For the record, Minnesota currently has a complete ban on sports betting. We've seen a couple other states that allow sports betting go after prediction markets. Personally, I feel that any state that allows sports betting is going to struggle to argue a case to ban prediction markets because you're essentially arguing over implementation details. Even arguments that certain prediction markets are ripe for insider tr…

I don't particularly care for sports betting, but I'm extremely against the prediction markets that blatantly violate he Dodds Frank act, such as bets on whether America Will attack another country or if fires will swallow California.

There's just too many wrong incentives at play.

Re: Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets

#208

Post by charcircuit »

Kubuxu wrote: post #202
ericmay wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you could make a case in separating the two, of course opening further discussion, but because sports betting takes place in a comparatively very controlled environment I think the risk profile is pretty different versus, idk, betting that the temperate will be at or above a certain point and then someone sticks a hair dryer on the thermostat[1]. Cheating can happen in sports of course, but the risk profile a…

> So you read an article "China disappears random person" and then at the end you click a button and bet whether that person is alive or dead or whatever. Congratulations, you just created a murder market. Create “Is person X dead?”, and put a large limit order buying No. Anyone with means can capitalise on it by fulfilling the physical obligation of the market and buying up the limit order. Don’t create the murder m…

The state can make it unprofitable to murder. Meaning that the existence of such a market is not a source of potential profit.

Re: Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets

#209

Post by criddell »

ars wrote: post #151
ghaff wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How is it different from the stock market?

Stocks are linked to entities that perform economic activity, i.e. make a profit, and share that profit. i.e. everyone can win. Predictions markets are just bets: one person wins, one loses.

Options (especially 0DTE options) are a lot like sports betting.

Re: Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets

#210

Post by robviren »

superfrank wrote: post #88
quaddoggy wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Minnesota currently has a complete ban on sports betting. Canterbury Park would like a word…

I have a website I run that is focused on sportsbetting so while I know high level what is legal where, I'm not actually in Minnesota, so I don't know every single detail especially when it comes to what's allowed in person. My guess would be that either A) that's tribal land and there's an exemption for that in the current laws or B) they have a casino, but don't offer sports betting or C) they only allow sports bet…

Long story short it is a compromise between the Mdewakanton Sioux, the state, and Canterbury to keep gambling exclusive to Mystic Lake Casino and Caterbury. The State flirted with the idea of expanding gambling and started moving in that direction, but Mystic basically now props up Canterbury, lets them have some amount of gambling on site, and the State did not expand gambling and generally is protective of Mystic. It's like a pressure release valve on gambling with some small kickbacks to the nearby legacy horse racing track. It's a strange local arrangement. Grew up in Prior Lake and had a few tribe members in school so this is just my bias on the arrangement.
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