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Access to frontier AI will soon be limited by economic and security constraints

writing.antonleicht.me

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Re: Access to frontier AI will soon be limited by economic and security constraints

#201

Post by zozbot234 »

gpugreg wrote: post #188
baq wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Open weights will remain open only if they’re significantly worse than the frontier weights. Before you challenge with benchmarks, consider the labs which release open weight models have internal testing and unpublished results.

> Open weights will remain open only if they’re significantly worse than the frontier weights. This makes the assumption that you earn more money by selling access to the model than by releasing the weights. That might be true for a company, but a US adversary might profit more from tanking the US economy. NVIDIA's stock dropped by 17% in a single day after DeepSeek-R1 was released, and the share of tech companies in…

Open weights don't really "tank" the U.S. economy though. To the extent that they change anything in the U.S., they simply incent the big model suppliers to move their datacenter capacity to smarter, more capable models that have no real open weight equivalent.

Re: Access to frontier AI will soon be limited by economic and security constraints

#202

Post by snemvalts »

gpt5 wrote: post #86
usernametaken29 wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I worked extensively on ARC AGI before and one thing is SURE as hell. OpenAI and Gemini in particular use this as marketing material. You can correlate the benchmark release with stock price increase. They feed synthetic datasets of ARC into their models to boost the numbers. There is no doubt in my mind Gemini is no better than DeepSeek other than being specifically fine tuned for ARC AGI. Heck, they even say so and…

ARC-AGI isn't perfect, but it helps demonstrates the gap. I'm sure all companies optimize their models for this benchmark given its dominance.

What about other benchmarks? Benchmarks where the contents are freely available have become useless for evaluating models.

Re: Access to frontier AI will soon be limited by economic and security constraints

#203

Post by Zigurd »

BrtByte wrote: post #13

The uncomfortable implication is that "AI sovereignty" may end up being less about training your own GPT-class model and more about securing compute, energy, datacenter security and contractual access

The sovereignty part of that may have more to do with access to users' data and interactions by law-enforcement and intelligence surveillance.

Re: Access to frontier AI will soon be limited by economic and security constraints

#204

Post by baq »

lmm wrote: post #110
baq wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And yet it seems that 90% are happily paying for the marginal 10% capability and saturate datacenters.

Happy to pay for? Or happy to spend other people's money on?

somebody is happy to spend that money

Re: Access to frontier AI will soon be limited by economic and security constraints

#205

Post by nradov »

scotty79 wrote: post #130
sho wrote: post #8

I am no-where near as concerned by this as I was a year ago, when I was expecting the axe to fall at any moment before the Chinese labs achieved some sort of escape velocity. I now think it's too late, all the cats are out of all the bags, there's no moat except maybe a temporal one of a few months, the genie is out of the bottle. There is no secret sauce the US labs have that the Chinese ones don't, or won't have so…

> There is no secret sauce the US labs have that the Chinese ones don't, or won't have soon enough. Over last year it seems that the only thing US labs are ahead is money spent. At least half of technical innovations if not more came from Chinese labs and was published openly.

Broad and deep capital markets are a real competitive moat for the USA. No other country or economic bloc can quickly deploy huge amounts of capital to new opportunities nearly as fast. China can work around that to an extent with a command economy that focuses resources on national strategic priorities but it's slower and less effective over the long term.

Re: Access to frontier AI will soon be limited by economic and security constraints

#206

Post by rsolva »

zozbot234 wrote: post #165
rsolva wrote: post #160

In our company of 24 employees, we get by with two DGX Sparks. We don't use AI heavily, but each Spark can serve about 6-8 concurrent requests with a full context lenght of 256k, which is decent. We get about ~35 t/s depending on the model we use (currently Qwen3.5 122B A10B and Qwen3 Coder Next), but we might set up a smaller model too for simpler tasks. This works for us and will work for years to come. It is not S…

That's pretty nice actually, how much KV cache does that model require at full context? That tends to be the main limit to running concurrent requests locally, there's KV quantization but it has outsized negative impact on model quality.

I have experimented with both q8 and q4 for KV cache. I can't find any difference between q8 and fp16, but q4 suffers more when the context grows. q8 seems like a good compromise and gives us enough ctx for about 6-8 concurrent, full context sessions. But we have not fully tested those limits yet, as the context windows rarely reach the limit.

Re: Access to frontier AI will soon be limited by economic and security constraints

#207

Post by djeastm »

nubg wrote: post #44
petesergeant wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> goys I suspect this was just a throwaway word usage, but its usage here ends up being pretty anti-Semitic, so probably worth reconsidering its use if that wasn’t the intention of your post.

What part of what he said was false? Dario Amodei and especially Sam Altman have been treating the general public like cattle. And goy simply means non-Jew, how can not talking about Jews be anti-Semitic?!

What does their being Jewish have anything to do with anything?

Re: Access to frontier AI will soon be limited by economic and security constraints

#208

Post by Animats »

Morromist wrote: post #100
Animats wrote: post #66

Over on the image generation side, "frontier AI" seems to be coming along rather well. Watch this video, which was released eight days ago.[1] Can you find any flaws? Two years ago, just getting hands with the right number of fingers was tough. Last year, there were jarring errors in every scene. Now, very little is wrong. How much longer will anyone need Hollywood studios? [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4zTCLIh…

It is a LOT better than 2 years ago, but there are flaws and its unpleasant to watch. The most easy to spot is their shoes (which they weren't wearing 1 second ago) flying off their feet without being kicked off in the first 10 seconds. But if progress keeps going I'm sure it will get to the point where my brain doesn't feel sick after watching it. I hope so, because I'm sure there's a lot of AI videos in my future,…

Yes, such systems are still struggling with continuity.

(There might be a workflow solution to that. Part of the system needs to do the job of what old films list as the "continuity girl". For each shot, there's a blocking diagram of who stands where at the beginning of the shot. There's a description of what each character is wearing, holding, or touching. If something generated that for the end of each shot, and it was fed into the prompt for the beginning of the next shot, that would help maintain continuity. This is another example of where a concrete mid-level abstraction is needed to keep things on track.)

Anyone have any idea what tool generated this? It's way past Stable Diffusion.

Re: Access to frontier AI will soon be limited by economic and security constraints

#209

Post by gmerc »

Our_Benefactors wrote: post #198
joefourier wrote: post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'd compare it to OpenAI 5 years ago except I think even then OpenAI had way more! Say what? 5 years ago OpenAI had received around $139 million in funding, and they’d just come out with GPT3 with 175B parameters, a 2048 context window, trained on 300B tokens on a 10,000 V100 cluster which would have cost maybe $4-13 million at the time for their training run. Meanwhile Deepseek V3’s famously frugal training was $5…

> Meanwhile Deepseek V3’s famously frugal training was $5M And widely derided once the team was unable to provide receipts. It’s more likely to be 10x

Why make up things? The papers are published completely and apples to apples compares 5M final training run against grok 3.5 (400M)final training run.

Re: Access to frontier AI will soon be limited by economic and security constraints

#210

Post by uejfiweun »

rsolva wrote: post #160

In our company of 24 employees, we get by with two DGX Sparks. We don't use AI heavily, but each Spark can serve about 6-8 concurrent requests with a full context lenght of 256k, which is decent. We get about ~35 t/s depending on the model we use (currently Qwen3.5 122B A10B and Qwen3 Coder Next), but we might set up a smaller model too for simpler tasks. This works for us and will work for years to come. It is not S…

This is pretty cool. How would you say that these open models compare to SOTA on coding tasks? I pay $200/mo for Claude Max but honestly this sounds way more fun.
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