Spain has become one of Europe’s cheapest power markets • Hacker News Board

Re: Spain has become one of Europe’s cheapest power markets

#201

Post by mhh__ » Tue, May 12, 2026, 7:48 PM UTC

ZeroGravitas wrote: post #200

mhh__ wrote: post #198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> logic and experience This is patronising drivel. We burn gas when there is no wind & sun. We do this because there no alternative other than the lights going out. You are not seeing the whole.

Let me rephrase your comment: When there is sun and/or wind we burn less gas. Gas current and futures price for just the gas that needs burned (nothing about plant maintenance or carbon price to compensate for pollution or cost for building the plant or paying loans taken to build it etc.) is at 100, 90 and 80 pounds per MWh over the next 3 years. That is more than the cost to build entirely new solar and wind, about…

So what if it's a cold night with no wind? I'm not saying renewables aren't cheap, I'm saying that you can't fully construct a grid on them and that this has not been communicated.

Our energy is expensive and volatile because of this (and subsidies to implement it). You don't seem to be capable of following my argument. It's not a free lunch. Renewables are also slightly problematic for grid stability although I expect we will have enough fast storage / (possibly synthetic) inertia eventually.

"What if we don't fix the roof?"

"but it's sunny?"

Re: Spain has become one of Europe’s cheapest power markets

#202

Post by mhh__ » Tue, May 12, 2026, 7:50 PM UTC

tialaramex wrote: post #199

mhh__ wrote: post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We have already done that. Do you know why gas often sets the price?

Because it's the most expensive used generation almost always? But I'd actually be interested in seeing the underlying market data, even say for a week ago. Actually seeing the underlying offers really helps you to properly understand what the future looks like. For example, right now wholesale is about £70 per MWh. What did the underlying bids and offers look like to hit that price ? How much CCGT was available for…

If it was the most expensive it wouldn't transact at that price, the price clears roughly to minimise excess demand i.e. gas is often the energy you can actually at a given time.

Re: Spain has become one of Europe’s cheapest power markets

#203

Post by tialaramex » Wed, May 13, 2026, 7:17 AM UTC

mhh__ wrote: post #202

tialaramex wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because it's the most expensive used generation almost always? But I'd actually be interested in seeing the underlying market data, even say for a week ago. Actually seeing the underlying offers really helps you to properly understand what the future looks like. For example, right now wholesale is about £70 per MWh. What did the underlying bids and offers look like to hit that price ? How much CCGT was available for…

If it was the most expensive it wouldn't transact at that price, the price clears roughly to minimise excess demand i.e. gas is often the energy you can actually at a given time.

No, by definition the most expensive used generation did transact at that price because it's a clearing auction. You probably skimmed over what I wrote because it didn't conform to how you'd imagined this works and you mistakenly thought you understand.

I expect that you've modelled this as a sort of "All or nothing" situation but of course that's not how it works for electricity, which is why the underlying data would be interesting. That "guts" of a market help you understand the meaning of the surface numbers like a wholesale spot price or a week-in-advance price.

For example, you can see in the released data that spot prices can go negative without all the gas generation switching off. Some modest amount of CCGT will apparently pay money to the grid to stay running, sometimes for hours, despite lack of demand. Most of the gas goes away at negative prices, but some will still be there, so what's that about exactly ?

My guess (which the underlying data would help confirm) is that generators bid their "tick over" generation at a low price, perhaps even a negative price, so as to rarely need to switch off the generator and pay the considerable shutdown/ startup prices, but bid a lot more at a high price which covers their fuel and other expenses. Do they also have a further tier of pricing for running the generator at some sort of "red line" less efficient but more productive rate? I have no idea, and without the raw data or an inside knowledge of their companies there is no way to know.

Re: Spain has become one of Europe’s cheapest power markets

#204

Post by tialaramex » Wed, May 13, 2026, 8:39 AM UTC

mhh__ wrote: post #201

ZeroGravitas wrote: post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let me rephrase your comment: When there is sun and/or wind we burn less gas. Gas current and futures price for just the gas that needs burned (nothing about plant maintenance or carbon price to compensate for pollution or cost for building the plant or paying loans taken to build it etc.) is at 100, 90 and 80 pounds per MWh over the next 3 years. That is more than the cost to build entirely new solar and wind, about…

So what if it's a cold night with no wind? I'm not saying renewables aren't cheap, I'm saying that you can't fully construct a grid on them and that this has not been communicated. Our energy is expensive and volatile because of this (and subsidies to implement it). You don't seem to be capable of following my argument. It's not a free lunch. Renewables are also slightly problematic for grid stability although I expe…

> I'm saying that you can't fully construct a grid on them

You can add storage, which twenty five years ago looked completely impractical but it turns out actually no.

Re: Spain has become one of Europe’s cheapest power markets

#205

Post by ben_w » Sun, May 17, 2026, 9:01 PM UTC

mbid wrote: post #162

AndrewDucker wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If only they'd been able to build enough solar power to bring down the energy costs to the point where they could build solar.

Not sure if you're serious, but this was not viable in the 2010s, or even today in Germany at all because of Germany's high latitude: No matter how efficient solar panels become, they will always be more economical to operate closer to the equator. Anyway, the Chinese factories for the most energy intensive parts of solar panel production mostly run on coal power.

> Anyway, the Chinese factories for the most energy intensive parts of solar panel production mostly run on coal power.

That's because China itself is mostly coal, not because of anything magical about particular sources. However, coal is now in decline even in China: https://ourworldindata.org/profile/energy/china

Before someone (accurately!) says the decline in coal is tiny and one year doesn't make a trend: This is likely to continue until there is no more coal for the same reason the UK also completely stopped generating electricity from coal: cost.

PV's absurdly cheap. China has a lot of land, doesn't need to care about optimal use of the Gobi desert.

Re: Spain has become one of Europe’s cheapest power markets

#206

Post by empiricus » Mon, May 18, 2026, 3:02 PM UTC

pydry wrote: post #185

empiricus wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Europe was spending 200 billions / year on gas from russia. I imagine they could try to build 100 reactors for that price, but it would take a couple of years I imagine...

Gas is dispatchable. You can treat it like a huge battery. Nuclear power not only isnt a substitute for gas, it needs gas as a backup and to mediate supply and demand. Gas is also waaaay cheaper than equivalent amounts of nuclear power - like 3x cheaper.

I suspect that you can modulate nuclear power too, but why do it? after you started the reactor it runs practically for free? (the fuel cost is so small; or it costs the same to run full power of half power). disclaimer: I did not read actual details about nuclear power plants designs in the past 20 years, so i'm vibing from first principles and bad memory