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Scientists warn Atlantic current at risk of shutting down

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Re: Scientists warn Atlantic current at risk of shutting down

#201

Post by joquarky »

scoofy wrote: post #162
causal wrote: post #23

I think climate change is a compelling crisis but I find these types of “could maybe happen according to some models” type of catastrophic scenarios a little frustrating because they soak up a lot of attention with scary headlines, reinforcing hopelessness in those who care while providing ammunition to skeptics when the catastrophe doesn’t materialize. It’s also easy to question methodology for anyone who has done a…

You don’t like honesty? Effectively everything in life is a balance of uncertainty. Surgeries can do more harm than good. Drugs have varying efficacy. Investments are uncertain. Careers can disappear. Nobody can tell you the future, but nearly all the scientists freaking out about a potential major issue should me worrying.

As long as it doesn't interrupt the next season of Love Island, few will care.

Re: Scientists warn Atlantic current at risk of shutting down

#202

Post by joquarky »

runarberg wrote: post #102
causal wrote: post #23

I think climate change is a compelling crisis but I find these types of “could maybe happen according to some models” type of catastrophic scenarios a little frustrating because they soak up a lot of attention with scary headlines, reinforcing hopelessness in those who care while providing ammunition to skeptics when the catastrophe doesn’t materialize. It’s also easy to question methodology for anyone who has done a…

I would argue the opposite. The number one frustration I have with climate change is the continued and persistent inaction by our world leaders. I would argue that modeling out worst case scenarios is more likely to reach our leaders and finally break this decades long inaction. I think generally the effects climate skeptics have over climate policy is overstated. And corporations with vested interest in being able t…

Paying off debts is too politically unpopular.

We can't even balance the budget in the US.

Orchestrating climate change mitigation is likely an order of magnitude more difficult than balancing budgets.

Re: Scientists warn Atlantic current at risk of shutting down

#203

Post by runarberg »

joquarky wrote: post #202
runarberg wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would argue the opposite. The number one frustration I have with climate change is the continued and persistent inaction by our world leaders. I would argue that modeling out worst case scenarios is more likely to reach our leaders and finally break this decades long inaction. I think generally the effects climate skeptics have over climate policy is overstated. And corporations with vested interest in being able t…

Paying off debts is too politically unpopular. We can't even balance the budget in the US. Orchestrating climate change mitigation is likely an order of magnitude more difficult than balancing budgets.

That has nothing to do with science communication and whether or not scientists should avoid sounding too alarmist when publishing their models for the purpose of getting their desired climate policy enacted by governments.

Re: Scientists warn Atlantic current at risk of shutting down

#204

Post by ck2 »

ericjmorey wrote: post #114
SoftTalker wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pretty much agree. Nature will fix the climate, after it eliminates (a large number of) the humans that are causing the problem. That's really the only way.

The defeatist mindsets expressed in these comments seem more like a way to shed any sort of personal accountability for participating in a solution that doesn't kill billions of people than a reflection of reality. There are many solutions.

here's a thought experiment but it's really more of a personality test of fantasy vs reality

let's say they somehow make fusion happen next decade

so with "unlimited" "free" power do you think there will be

A - more peace

B - more war

To me it's pretty obvious.

When I was a teenager I hoped for a Star Trek future

But after the past decade especially, I realize that will never happen, that people will support suppressing and murdering thousands, millions of innocent people to feel a fake sense of satisfaction

The same reason that fake religion persists is the same reason why the human made part of climate change will never be solved

Re: Scientists warn Atlantic current at risk of shutting down

#205

Post by Eji1700 »

idiotsecant wrote: post #152
graemep wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is that those were not the headlines. There were headlines in the 80s saying AMOC would collapse by now.

"I read a headline that turned out to be wrong, all headlines adjacent to that original one are now wrong" You are constantly seeing all manner of predictions. When someone makes a wrong prediction that is not a indicator that the thing will never happen. Otherwise I would bet that I will suffer no problematic effects if I stop paying a mortgage.

You are giving way too much credit to the average headline. Most headlines are wrong/misleading, full stop. They have incentive to be, this isn't a secret.

The "quality" headlines aren't the one the average person is reading. It's even worse in climate discussions. Fuck "An Inconvenient Truth" was probably the largest exposure to climate issues for my generation and is STILL a problem because a some claims were made that, oops, even then were called vast exaggerations by the IPCCS. No snow on Fuji within a decade comes to mind, which basically nothing but the most extreme models predicted. Well it's a decade later and to the layman, there's still snow on the mountain. It's at some of it's worst levels EVER, but when you make bold and verifiable claims and then go "oh well you see actually..." you lose people.

Even worse are the "THIS TERRIBLE THING WILL HAPPEN!...in 100 years". That's still fucking awful, but when the layman has been reading the first part for over a decade now, or ever hears the second part, it often just loses their attention entirely. Climate science trying to get real change needs to manage expectations, but media is mostly about grabbing attention. It's obvious how at odds those goals are.

Re: Scientists warn Atlantic current at risk of shutting down

#206

Post by bastawhiz »

grey-area wrote: post #147
bastawhiz wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The GP didn't say not to pay attention to it. Clearly people are. The point is that it's unactionable. The people who care could all pour their life savings into climate action and commit suicide to cancel all future carbon footprint and it still wouldn't move the needle. Even if the Democrats in the US took over both branches of Congress, the white house, and the supreme court, they wouldn't move the needle. There i…

I don’t think it’s unactionable, just as one example, sadly investing in Northern Europe on a long time frame is pretty risky as a result of this. There is and should be pressure to decarbonise at this point - it is still going to help and we can vote to make that happen. Tyrants like Putin want you to think you are powerless, but you are not.

Writing news articles that desensitize the public has the opposite effect of empowering them. Moreover, it's not an article that's written in a way that changes anyone's mind. If you're a climate denier (of whatever flavor) you're not going to be persuaded by this article or any other like it. In fact, it might make you more staunch.

Re: Scientists warn Atlantic current at risk of shutting down

#207

Post by bastawhiz »

ordu wrote: post #148
bastawhiz wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The scientists aren't journalists. Convince a politician to start planning for national security considerations. Tell them how it'll affect supply chains. Frame it in a way that literally anyone who has a vested interest in doing something would care about.

It is easier said than done. Politicians do not like to be disturbed by some pesky experts. Mentor Pilot discusses 2025 D.C mid-air collision[1], and finds the most disturbing reason for it: experts tried to escalate issues with too much traffic for years, but they were repeatedly told that it was "too political", so, in other words "just shut up and deal with the traffic, don't bother congressmen and congresswomen,…

Convincing politicians might be hard, but at least it's not as pointless as trying to convince the general public. See: the last thirty years.

Re: Scientists warn Atlantic current at risk of shutting down

#208

Post by luxuryballs »

mapkkk wrote: post #32
luxuryballs wrote: post #7

not to diss the science and the work involved around it but this kind of alarmist stuff makes me wonder how many similar things have happened in the past but nobody noticed because nobody was looking or even knew how to track such a thing, the environment is so complex, seems unlikely that we can make heads or tails of this, and in 50 years some new understanding will flip all of our current models (no pun intended!)…

I agree with your sentiment, but I have a hard time imagining any alternative action scientists could take besides publishing and warning. Science is best when it’s purely that, I’ve seen plenty of living examples and read about past ones where science mixed with politics or overt profit motives don’t end well. Surely there must be examples where the contrary has been the case, but I am biased, and I would wager that…

it’s opportunity cost at least

Re: Scientists warn Atlantic current at risk of shutting down

#209

Post by fmkamchatka »

giwook wrote: post #87
fmkamchatka wrote: post #16

I can’t believe there are people in our industry who turn a blind eye (or worse) to these problems. They say that climate scientists are fearmongering and argue there is not a single truth.

People do weird things when there's a lot of money involved.

But how do you deal with that? How can they ignore the future suffering of our children?

Re: Scientists warn Atlantic current at risk of shutting down

#210

Post by luxuryballs »

AlecSchueler wrote: post #20
luxuryballs wrote: post #7

not to diss the science and the work involved around it but this kind of alarmist stuff makes me wonder how many similar things have happened in the past but nobody noticed because nobody was looking or even knew how to track such a thing, the environment is so complex, seems unlikely that we can make heads or tails of this, and in 50 years some new understanding will flip all of our current models (no pun intended!)…

> how many similar things have happened in the past but nobody noticed because nobody was looking or even knew how to track such a thing We can actually make petty good estimates because of things like carbon layers in the ice. It's happened in the past, you're right, and usually it precedes large scale extinction events.

so because a current in the ocean is changing we should tell everyone they might be about to die or what’s the goal here
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