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GitHub Copilot code review will start consuming GitHub Actions minutes

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Re: GitHub Copilot code review will start consuming GitHub Actions minutes

#201

Post by JohnHaugeland »

Khalos wrote: post #187
Aurornis wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There is absolutely no evidence to support this. Analysts like Semi-Analysis have done a lot of modeling and estimates on the topic. But two can play this game: There is absolutely no evidence to support that API prices do not have profitable unit economics.

I'm not familiar with that analysis, its accuracy, or its evidence. I would be surprised by this given it seems like providers are still in the growth phase. Typically the burden of proof is on the one making the claim.

there is no burden of proof on someone who says “i suspect”

Re: GitHub Copilot code review will start consuming GitHub Actions minutes

#202

Post by JohnHaugeland »

joshuastuden wrote: post #194
Aurornis wrote: post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://semianalysis.com/ They have some of the best publicly available analysis on these topics. The full details and numbers are hidden behind the institutional accounts which are priced for investors (not something you sign up for personally) but they're generous with what they send out in their newsletter. If you're not familiar with resources like this I could understand how you'd assume that the providers are h…

[flagged]

the claim that they suspect something is adequately backed up by saying “i suspect this”

nobody needs to prove their suspicions

Re: GitHub Copilot code review will start consuming GitHub Actions minutes

#203

Post by JohnHaugeland »

hyperadvanced wrote: post #167
libraryofbabel wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Their CEO is on record as saying this. You may think he's lying, but that's just your opinion; given the pricing and how it stacks relative to the pricing of inference providers of comparable open source models (who are certainly charging above cost!), I am inclined to believe Anthropic on this.

Why would you believe a tech CEO who has a vested interest in the untruth but can skirt fiduciary duties by speaking cleverly.

why would we believe skeptical randos on social media?

he has access to the real numbers and a legal risk from lying publicly. it does him no good to lie about this.

Re: GitHub Copilot code review will start consuming GitHub Actions minutes

#204

Post by JohnHaugeland »

legulere wrote: post #153
Aurornis wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That is no longer a helpful tool... it costs like ~15% of an actual dev. The full cost of each employee is more than their salary. The common estimate is 1.4X their salary due to all of the employer-paid taxes, benefits, and other things. So even $2K/month of token costs would only be around 10% of the cost of a mid-range developer cost. It doesn't have to increase productivity much to justify the cost.

Don't forget the organisational overhead. You'll need managers and communication overhead between developers grows superlinear (see Brook's law).

brook’s law is probably not true anymore

Re: GitHub Copilot code review will start consuming GitHub Actions minutes

#205

Post by JohnHaugeland »

sassymuffinz wrote: post #164
jakobnissen wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You work for sandwiches and coffee, and not for a decent salary?

I get paid a decent salary for my expertise and this wild thing called remembering what happened yesterday. My point is my compute is powered by bananas and coffee, not gigawatts of energy and all of the RAM.

i don’t really care if my salable work product is banana sourced

Re: GitHub Copilot code review will start consuming GitHub Actions minutes

#206

Post by mawadev »

I use AI when its free, but very sparingly when I try to get some sample code. Paying for that thing seems like an insane concept to me. I'm really glad it never became integral to my skillset or day to day work. Seems like a lot of people will feel the pain of getting rug pulled harder sooner or later. At this point any company sensibly investing in this technology is going the offline/self host route, because they smell the pattern of vendor/cloud lock in ten miles away

Re: GitHub Copilot code review will start consuming GitHub Actions minutes

#207

Post by mark_l_watson »

I love LLM tech and want to see it support viable long term businesses that don't rely on losing money providing subsidized subscriptions that lose money. I ranted about this on X yesterday, primarily about a legal framework to prevent LLM dumping: https://x.com/mark_l_watson/status/2049221176657129794

Re: GitHub Copilot code review will start consuming GitHub Actions minutes

#208

Post by mark_l_watson »

hacker_homie wrote: post #171
BadBadJellyBean wrote: post #122

We are slowly inching closer to the point where AI and AI products will be billed for what they cost. We are currently living in the heavily discounted world where everything subsidized to the point where a lot of it is free. It seems like they can't or won't keep that up anymore. My prediction is that whenever one of the big companies raise their prices or move features to higher tiers others will follow soon. They…

run local models

I experiment a lot with local models, great results for engineering tasks, less so for coding agents.

I have used the following on a 32G MacMini to help write useful code:

ollama launch claude --model qwen3.6:27b-coding-nvfp4

The problem is that running local models (except for engineering tasks like data munging) is slow. With the above setup I set up a task (asking for no user verification) and go for a walk to wait for results that my Gemini Ultra plan would produce in 10 seconds.

Re: GitHub Copilot code review will start consuming GitHub Actions minutes

#209

Post by sassymuffinz »

JohnHaugeland wrote: post #205
sassymuffinz wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I get paid a decent salary for my expertise and this wild thing called remembering what happened yesterday. My point is my compute is powered by bananas and coffee, not gigawatts of energy and all of the RAM.

i don’t really care if my salable work product is banana sourced

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Re: GitHub Copilot code review will start consuming GitHub Actions minutes

#210

Post by JohnHaugeland »

sassymuffinz wrote: post #209
JohnHaugeland wrote: post #205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

i don’t really care if my salable work product is banana sourced

[flagged]

insults won’t convince people to agree with you

sometimes people just have different belief systems than you, and that’s actually okay

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