US special forces soldier arrested after allegedly winning $400k on Maduro raid

Post by bbwbsb » Fri, Apr 24, 2026, 6:17 AM UTC

Aunche wrote: post #149

jh00ker wrote: post #19

How many people in congress made the exact same bet on the exact same information, and for them it's "legal?"

People act like the pervasiveness of insider trading in Congress is an indisputable fact, when there have been only a few trades with suspicious timing, which is similar to what you would expect statistically from 535 wealthier people trading with no insider information. The only case where I feel like insider trading is likely was Richard Burr's sales before COVID.

Post by vkou » Fri, Apr 24, 2026, 6:20 AM UTC

int32_64 wrote: post #67

It seems like it would be highly demoralizing to US soldiers that they are prosecuted for betting on the outcomes of the battles they are risking their lives for but those insider trading commanding them aren't.

Post by ashtonshears » Fri, Apr 24, 2026, 6:23 AM UTC

nandomrumber wrote: post #192

wraptile wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At this point insider trading issue has run away so hard I don't see how it can be tamed without revolutionary frameworks. If we look at crypto then I'm not sure we want to live in a world where insider trading is normalized either so we ought to start working on these new frameworks as soon as possible but nobody seems to care.

> without revolutionary frameworks I’d argue that the level of corruption we’re seeing, not just in the USA but all over the Western world, hasn’t risen to a level that warrants revolutionary action. > nobody seems to care And it would seem that the masses tend to agree. We are much much better off tolerating this level of corruption than we would be attempting a revolution. Ultimately, it doesn’t matter how fat the…

Post by floam » Fri, Apr 24, 2026, 6:25 AM UTC

burningChrome wrote: post #198

bostik wrote: post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unless the prosecution can prove that the trades meaningfully moved the market prices, it's probably going to be really hard to use the term "leaking". I can't shake the feeling that there may be political reasons to not even attempt that angle. What legal precedent would it set if a judge actually ruled on that and the prosecution won ? Which entities within the government would be financially inconvenienced?

So in prediction markets I've heard a lot of times people will collaborate in order to make certain predictions pay off higher sums by having more people put money on a certain bet. Is it true with these markets the more people bet on a specific day and time, the value will increase more, increasing the overall payout? If that is true, I wonder if they're looking at anybody else helping place the bets or a group of p…

Post by itake » Fri, Apr 24, 2026, 6:29 AM UTC

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #173

SlightlyLeftPad wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Huh that’s interesting. The sycophants in DC seem to be able to do everything listed here with no repercussions.

> sycophants in DC Who? Because if you have evidence of military secrets being leaked through prediction markets, we actually need that journalistic record maintained.