Apparently you can gamble on how many cars drive past a traffic camera in a given timeframe.
Traffic jams for cash now is a reality.
'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet
201–210 of 270 posts
Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet
#202The chapter of fake-news is over folks. We just started the everything is a lie unless the opposite is proven .
lies were invented recently?
Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet
#203Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is the definitive argument for me against prediction markets. It creates incentives to do really dumb shit.
Yep. Feels like we see new depressingly creative examples of this every few days.
The more money gets into it the worse it will get. I really am disappointed by how the world has developed in the last 30 years..
Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet
#204Earlier quoted context omitted.
People have no idea how pervasive this is globally.
If it exists, and money can flow, it will be gamed.
We should have much stricter penalties for fraud. Vastly more money is stolen this way than by petty theft or robbery, but the perpetrators tend to get off very lightly by comparison.
Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet
#205Earlier quoted context omitted.
In a sense, that's already happened. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/kalshi-sued-over-o... and https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/18/iran-war-bets-... > Later, a single user would make over $550,000 after betting that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would topple, just moments before his assassination by Israeli forces.
It hasn't happened in this case. Your example has causality reversed. Khamenei wasn't killed because there was a prediction market about the political leadership of Iran.
How do you know?
Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet
#206I don't understand who is taking the other side of all these insane Polymarket bets. Is Polymarket doing it?
I've been quite successful trading weather prediction markets. The prediction markets were never about predicting outcomes. If that's the level you are playing on, you're playing at the lowest possible level, and probably won't win. The markets are now about properly modelling other peoples' manipulation of prediction. That's how Wall Street works as well. Companies can beat earnings and their stocks crash immediatel…
I am getting into trading on my own (my main job was in machine learning and I studied math in university). I've also come to a similar conclusion that you pretty much have to model these "manipulations" on top of the statistics/Brownian-motion-driven behavior of any security. I am currently working on a hybrid model for something on Polymarket but it's not yet sophisticated. Do you have any resources that you can point me to that expand on this very idea of adding human behavior to financial modeling?
Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet
#207Earlier quoted context omitted.
The problem is that the genie is out of the bottle, even if you try to regulate it away it pops up in offshore jurisdictions and uses crypto. The ease with which polymarket can be manipulated is infinite because there are so many different random things you can bet on. It's a sign of our times and I don't think there is much that can be done about it by anyone.
Bans from the AppStores will go a long way to removing this behavior. Sure a few die hards will always find a way to gamble, that does not mean we should not have regulations for the majority.
You don't need to be a diehard to use a browser instead of an app.
Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet
#208I don't understand who is taking the other side of all these insane Polymarket bets. Is Polymarket doing it?
I've been quite successful trading weather prediction markets. The prediction markets were never about predicting outcomes. If that's the level you are playing on, you're playing at the lowest possible level, and probably won't win. The markets are now about properly modelling other peoples' manipulation of prediction. That's how Wall Street works as well. Companies can beat earnings and their stocks crash immediatel…
Says "prediction markets were never about predicting outcomes", writes long winded tripe stating that "prediction markets exactly about predicting outcomes". Thank you Tai Lopez.
Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet
#209Earlier quoted context omitted.
If it exists, and money can flow, it will be gamed.
We should have much stricter penalties for fraud. Vastly more money is stolen this way than by petty theft or robbery, but the perpetrators tend to get off very lightly by comparison.
It's an offset for the amount of effort and forethought put into the fraud
Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet
#210Probably the clearest counterpoint to the theoretical utility of prediction markets: it creates a financial incentive for influencing future events.
Today it’s the temperature at an airport in France. Maybe another day it will be the lifespan of an geopolitically important person.