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US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

theguardian.com

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Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#201

Post by chasd00 »

vjvjvjvjghv wrote: post #128
le-mark wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the Dems win the house in the midterms he will be impeached again. If there are 60 votes in the senate he will be out. Dems are unlikely to win the senate, let alone 60 seats. It’s a bizarre situation in that US elections have such a huge impact on a world that has no say.

I really hope the democrats won’t start the impeachment nonsense showbusiness again and instead focus on actual policy that benefits people. I am very worried that Congress will go even lower and devolve into permanent investigations and impeachments while the country has actual serious problems that aren’t worked on.

I wouldn’t worry, that’s a sure thing. Next on Trump’s list is Cuba. He has to do these things now because after the midterms it’s just going to be investigations and impeachment for two years. Then the Democrats lose again because who cares about more pointless impeachments?

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#202

Post by mgfist »

megamike wrote: post #31

Iran's 10-point plan includes: 1. Guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again 2. Permanent end to the war, not just a ceasefire 3. End to Israeli strikes in Lebanon 4. Lifting of all US sanctions on Iran 5. End to all regional fighting against Iranian allies 6. In return, Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz 7. Iran would impose a Hormuz fee of $2 million per ship 8. Iran would split these fees with Oman 9. Iran t…

Yikes, so basically Iran gets everything it wants. It paid a heavy price for it, but it would get so much out of this. At pre war ship rates, that toll would be ~$90B per year ($45B if split half with Oman). Iran's government generates something like $40B in income, so this would be absolutely monumental.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#203

Post by nickvec »

Avicebron wrote: post #186
ghywertelling wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have a Naive question, "why aren't the discussions related to public matters be telecasted live like a football match to the whole world? why isn't the public privy to the discussions about its own future?"

I mean...we have body cams for police..

That's beside the point.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#204

Post by ggm »

joe_the_user wrote: post #190
ggm wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But we've had messaging for domestic consumption worldwide since the trojan wars. What people say in either direction is not a reflection of what happens, it's what they want to say, and have some cohort believe happened. This is for domestic consumption. As will the WH reports be, facing the US domestic audience.

The Supreme National Security Council is quoting the agreement that Trump supposedly agreed to. And if that agreement holds, it is hard to see it as anything but a complete Iranian victory. Keep in mind, the losers in a conflict have more of an incentive to lie than the winners. The US and Israel seem very much the losers here.

I don't really disagree, but I just want to observe there is no neutral arbiter here. There isn't some platonic ideal "he won, they lost" outcome.

What I think, is that a french metric tonne of value has been sucked out of the world economy, a lot of future decisions are now very uncertain, power balances have shifted, and none of this is really helpful for american soft or hard power into the longer term.

The Iranians have lost an entire cohort of leadership and are going to spend years reconstructing domestic infrastructure, and a rational polity. But, the IGRC has probably got a stronger hand on the tiller. Their natural Shia allies abroad are in shellshock, but still there.

I'd call it a pyrrhic victory for America, on any terms. Wrecked the joint, came out with low bodycount in the immediate short term, have totally ruined international relations (which they don't care about) and probably won't win the mid-terms on some supposed "war vote" -But who knows? Maybe the horse can be taught to sing before morning?

A lot of very fine bang-bang whizz devices got used, and they learned how much fun that is. A lot of european and asian economies learned how weak they are in energy and fertilizer and will re-appraise how to manage that, and there's a lot of fun in that. A big muscly china is watching quietly and we're pretending there's nothing to see there, and meantime the tariff "war" continues to do .. 5/10ths of nothing.

The pace of worldwide alternative energy adoption has gone up. Is that an upside?

The Iranian PR on this is like the DPRK. Except the DPRK wear Hanbok not Chador. The Iranian citizenry has been badly let down. No green revolution on the horizon.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#205

Post by chasd00 »

rasz wrote: post #45

US just agreed to: Commitment to non-aggression Continuation of Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz Acceptance of uranium enrichment Lifting of all primary sanctions Lifting of all secondary sanctions Termination of all UN Security Council resolutions Termination of all Board of Governors resolutions Payment of compensation to Iran Withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from the region Cessation of war on all fronts,…

Jfc the US didn’t agree to any of that. Read the news ffs.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#206

Post by cmilton »

mgfist wrote: post #202
megamike wrote: post #31

Iran's 10-point plan includes: 1. Guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again 2. Permanent end to the war, not just a ceasefire 3. End to Israeli strikes in Lebanon 4. Lifting of all US sanctions on Iran 5. End to all regional fighting against Iranian allies 6. In return, Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz 7. Iran would impose a Hormuz fee of $2 million per ship 8. Iran would split these fees with Oman 9. Iran t…

Yikes, so basically Iran gets everything it wants. It paid a heavy price for it, but it would get so much out of this. At pre war ship rates, that toll would be ~$90B per year ($45B if split half with Oman). Iran's government generates something like $40B in income, so this would be absolutely monumental.

It all sounds great. Which government? Is it a different regime? If not, why would the US concede?

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#207

Post by s5300 »

markus_zhang wrote: post #150

OK I guess it is pause time. US and Israel are probably restocking on whatever missiles they can get, while Iran doing the same, and Russian/China rushing stuffs to Iran through sea and railroad. At least I got a cheaper tank of gasoline tomorrow…

[dead]

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#208

Post by giantg2 »

ghywertelling wrote: post #149
idle_zealot wrote: post #80

We already attacked Iran twice during "talks," is there any indication that we mean it this time, or are we just going to bomb them again while negotiations are ongoing?

I have a Naive question, "why aren't the discussions related to public matters be telecasted live like a football match to the whole world? why isn't the public privy to the discussions about its own future?"

Because most world leaders are actors. They put on a show to get elected or retain power. They don't want to look weak and want to spin the final outcome to their favor. That can include one side allowing the other to take credit for an idea that wasn't their's.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#209

Post by caminante »

surgical_fire wrote: post #151
Bubble1296 wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What about the other Middle East countries involved such as the UAE and what about Europe?

Europe, thankfully, stayed out of this mess. Some countries even rejected to even give logistical support to the US.

and some (most?) countries offered support...?

Spain has held a firm line, but even others such as UK/FR have allowed use of facilities or engaged their air craft carriers or facilitated US movements.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#210

Post by ceejayoz »

bawolff wrote: post #180
ceejayoz wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Israel seems likely to do anything they can to start things up again.

They dont have to do anything but wait. Its only a 2 week ceasefire.

When Trump says his healthcare plan or infrastructure plan come “in two weeks” it means never.
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