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72% of the dollar's purchasing power was destroyed in just four episodes

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Re: 72% of the dollar's purchasing power was destroyed in just four episodes

#201
post #77

This supports my hunch that the current Iran war creates a lethal trifecta that could potentially cause a dollar collapse. 1. Massive military overspend. 2. Petrodollar squeeze (Strait of Hormuz). 3. Allies pulling out: Europe and the Gulf diversifying both their investments and defense purchases. #1 creates oversupply of dollars and #2 and #3 lower demand. This study supports the idea that wars can indeed destroy pu…

> Europe and the Gulf diversifying both their investments and defense purchases. With what? The euro, yuan? Or weapons from france? I hate to admit it, but it's much less that the US is great because it's the reserve currency, and much more that the world reserve currency is the dollar because the US is what it is. Weapons are expensive, and it only makes sense to buy them from a country that specializes in them. And…

The US isn't delivering Patriot missiles to Switzerland. Switzerland froze paiements. The US unilaterally took the money Switzerland escrowed to buy F35s, put them towards paying for Patriot missiles they won't deliver, and asked Switzerland to refill the F35 escrow account. Hundreds of millions of dollars have been siphoned off.

https://www.rts.ch/info/suisse/2026/article/les-usa-detourne...

The US is not a reliable weapon supplier anymore. Contracts don't mean anything anymore.

Re: 72% of the dollar's purchasing power was destroyed in just four episodes

#203
post #50

This supports my hunch that the current Iran war creates a lethal trifecta that could potentially cause a dollar collapse. 1. Massive military overspend. 2. Petrodollar squeeze (Strait of Hormuz). 3. Allies pulling out: Europe and the Gulf diversifying both their investments and defense purchases. #1 creates oversupply of dollars and #2 and #3 lower demand. This study supports the idea that wars can indeed destroy pu…

One of the goals of the Heritage Foundation is a weak dollar. They believe they can bring manufacturing back to the US this way. I don't think they're right. I do think they will continue weakening the dollar.

> I don't think they're right.

it's worse then them not being right

the only way a weak dollar would majorly matter for bringing back production is iff production is cheap

so a 20% weaker dollar must not come with 20% higher "dollar" prices (living cost, salary). You need to decrees living cost and dollar value in lock step (i.e. weaker dollar without inflation!). But this seem impossible IMHO. And if we look at what happened, if anything, it went the other way.

And if you try to force it anyway you are basically saying "we effectively disown most money of most US citizens" and use that to try to attack manufacturing, while likely not relevantly affecting the wealthiest.

That is just plain evil.

And not very surprising if you consider that many "manufacturing countries" have pretty horrifying working conditions often not "that" far apart from slavery.

Worse this likely wouldn't work either, because iff your countries population doesn't have the money to buy stuff anymore, and investments are risky, why would you even bother to produce there? To then export to countries where investments into production lines are more reliable? Like how is that supposed to work?

Naturally things can be different if we only speak about high-tech / high-end manufacturing. But the current steps do not seem promising to archive that either:

1) this kind of manufacturing lines need even higher investments, i.e. act even more allergic wrt. trade instability and uncertainty

2) Trump has brought some high tech manufacturing into the US with a mixture of force and bribes/subsidization. But honestly it looks a lot of it is mostly hollow promises, not making a relevant difference long term.

3) More then one case where companies did agree had a lot of big problems. One of the biggest issue being, that missing in depth know-how requires temp. importing people which can make sure things work while teaching that know how (if you want things to get going fast. If you go slow you can send your people to other countries to learn.). But a destroyed visa system makes this a high risk for anyone coming to the US and did lead to more then one person like that being detained and deported by ICE. The other risk is if this people don't teach enough you become dependent on foreign workers in a strange way for a while.

Either way nothing in the current politics seems to be actually well thought through ways to archive (relevantly) more manufacturing in the US long term. But everything seems to be designed to destroy the wealth of the majority of US citizens.

Re: 72% of the dollar's purchasing power was destroyed in just four episodes

#204

And yet the feels surrounding $1M net worth have not been and likely will never be adjusted for this.

Sure they will. Making “$100,000” used to be a crazy milestone. Not anymore.

Likewise, a millionaire isn’t a millionaire until about $10M.

Re: 72% of the dollar's purchasing power was destroyed in just four episodes

#205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The petrodollar confers a huge advantage to the US, which is the whole point of it. It soaks up liquidity and allows the US to export inflation which allows it to be in the insanely profitable business of printing money. An argument could be made that this is corrupting and economically distorting to society resulting in a net negative but there is no guarantee that the same corruption would undermine China in a time…

It's not advantage, it makes for artificial demand for your currency, which completely screws up all the relevant metrics and makes you unable to actually inflate the currency when getting less competitive. It's resource curse on steroids.

We are assuming a resource curse on steroids, the ability to sell the ‘resource’ is used to distort the economy and pay for the cost of running an empire. The US chooses to do this because it is controlled by those who benefit from this not for the long term benefit of the country.

Saying it’s not an advantage is to assume those in control want to have manufacturing in the US, while such noises are made there is very little action beyond capricious crony capitalism tariffs that no normal business can possibly rely on.

Re: 72% of the dollar's purchasing power was destroyed in just four episodes

#206
post #166
post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I believe the idea is to support the “real” economy vs a “paper” economy. The “real” economy manufactures stuff in meat space instead of making value through abstractions like financial derivatives. The real economies are tied to a stronger middle class and national security. That’s the thesis as I understand it.

A service-based economy is also a "real" economy and not a "paper" economy

The fundamental problem is the asymmetry of value creation. Software is perhaps the pinnacle of this, and why tech companies are so unfathomably wealthy.

A team of 10 SWEs can create a product worth $1B with the cost of 10 laptops. You get ten people worth $100M each.

To create $1B in value with any kind of manufacturing business, is going to take hundreds of people utilizing millions in various costs. You end up with something like 10,000 people worth $100k each once you wind your way through all those supply lines.

Re: 72% of the dollar's purchasing power was destroyed in just four episodes

#207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Literally buy from PRC... most of worlds largest trade partner. That's why the system should work, it's closed loop. And we know world aktually fine with yuan denominated trade since PRC increased yuan settlement from 10 to >50% in a few years after US went sanction happy. PRC basically super costco, apart from chips and commercial aviation (both coming) they sell everything country needs for modernity, at discount.…

For that 30% control number to make any sense you have to believe that: the gulf states are going to allow Iran to control their existential oil trade long term, that they will do so in the face of a currency getting manipulated adversarially against them, that no manufacturing bases can be built up to be alternatives and that none of that is going to have major impacts on the economy or political elites in China. Al…

I am not betting on one or other happening, I am simply stating, the downstream effect of Iran being able to hold onto Hormuz, i.e. by outlasting US political will create conditions for GCC petro-yuan. Which may not be out of question because we're not in nothing ever happens world anymore.

> make any sense

GCC petro-yuan scenario is predicated on BIG IF that Iran can control Hormuz oil. Rest is the downstream logic for ~10 years, i.e. before any alternative buildout/pivot by GCC states to some how insulate... which apart from Saudi, they might not (too small). This also why PRC hasn't exactly enthusiastically signed up despite IR offer, because it would burn GCC bridge when IR fate uncertain. But if alternative is IR can hold hormuz hostage, PRC would rather participate in petro-yuan than not, at which point having priority access to energy, possibly at discount is net win. Note in this case IR as SLOC guard dog actually has leverage over PRC, gating energy access also offer PRC cannot refuse.

> US

Hence big if, if US has appetite and capability to break Iran, and it matters US settlement/conditions, because if US reasserts control over Hormuz oil and tries to throttle PRC oil as victory, then PRC may go all in on Iran support. Situation is fluid, the wild card is in fact US or ISR deciding to simply break GCC oil. There is still plenty of room for escalation and shenanigans.

Re: 72% of the dollar's purchasing power was destroyed in just four episodes

#208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> white people are likely a minority in corporate America. Oh boy am I gonna need some actual data for this claim.

Even if not quite true, it doesn't change my argument since it was more about the rate of change. You can construct the definition of white collar in a way that makes it seem like it's mostly white people, but among high paying job titles within a company, absolutely I would say there are fewer than 50% non-Jewish whites.

> Even if not quite true, it doesn't change my argument

This is one of the main points of bigotry. The facts don't matter. So when a person says something obviously ridiculous like

> among high paying job titles within a company, absolutely I would say there are fewer than 50% non-Jewish whites

the proper way to interpret is "I feel like there are too many unworthy people working there," where "too many" is entirely subjective and could be as few as one.

Re: 72% of the dollar's purchasing power was destroyed in just four episodes

#209

This study doesn't correct for baseline exponential decay due to inflation, to better highlight the meaningful variations. By comparing based on 1914 dollars it also causes old variations to be relatively more extreme and newer inflationary events to look less extreme. You must compare apples to apples. Finally the events are quite cherry-picked. It is a conclusion looking for a result, when the statistical reason fo…

Also we’re looking at periods that involve dramatically different monetary policy (gold standard before WWII, Bretton Woods from 1944-1976, then the current regime).

One could argue that the defining aspect of each of those shifts in monetary policy has been to devalue the dollar further. I have a relatively basic understanding of economics though, and do understand the arguments that even if that's the outcome it's not an inherently bad one as an american, though a notable effect appears to have been massively widening inequality.

Re: 72% of the dollar's purchasing power was destroyed in just four episodes

#210

This study doesn't correct for baseline exponential decay due to inflation, to better highlight the meaningful variations. By comparing based on 1914 dollars it also causes old variations to be relatively more extreme and newer inflationary events to look less extreme. You must compare apples to apples. Finally the events are quite cherry-picked. It is a conclusion looking for a result, when the statistical reason fo…

Exactly, it doesn't matter to me how much COVID contributed to the erosion of 1901 100 Dollars.

It (presumably) does matter to you how much COVID policy contributed to houses doubling in cost, though.
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