Earlier quoted context omitted.
Eh what? It’s literally the only reason for prediction markets to exist. Otherwise they are simple gambling and pointless. The only way you get more wisdom from “the crowd” is if it teases folks who hold non-public (or at least less public) information into the market to refine the odds towards what they should be. Without insider information the entire concept is dead on arrival. Yes randos are gonna gamble because…
> Otherwise they are simple gambling maybe I'm dumb but I thought gambling is the whole point
It seems like two different definitions of 'point' are getting mixed. Yes, for many participants it feels like gambling. But structurally, prediction markets are closer to price discovery systems -like financial markets - where the side effect (or goal, depending on your view) is better forecasts, not just entertainment