What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable • Hacker News Board

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#201

Post by testdelacc1 » Sat, Mar 14, 2026, 7:16 PM UTC

paulsutter wrote: post #103

testdelacc1 wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is there always a both sides-er in these discussions? FWIW, one party generally deferred to nonpartisan commissions to draw boundaries to avoid gerrymandering. So one “side” did far more than propose a solution, they did the right thing even when the other side wasn’t. Gerrymandering is the worst example to pick when you’re pushing both-sides-bad.

Great! So please explain what algorithms are used by these "nonpartisan" commissions?

I’ll reply in good faith even though I detect sarcasm in your comment.

Generally nonpartisan commissions prioritise contiguity and compactness. There is an element of “I know it when I see it” because you’re trying to avoid both packing (packing minority voters from disparate areas into one) and cracking (distributing a minority district like Salt Like City into its 4 neighbouring districts, ensuring the city can’t vote for … whoever cities generally vote for).

So there is a human element involved, but these commissions generally do a reasonable job. You know how we know? States that move from nonpartisan to partisan commissions cause a dramatic change in the results of the next election. If the nonpartisan was biased like you imply with your air quotes, we wouldn’t observe that effect.

Also there are algorithms to draw fair districts without needing human judgement. See this paper[1] that expounds on one such algorithm.

1 - Swamy, R., King, D. M., & Jacobson, S. H. (2022). Multiobjective optimization for politically fair districting: A scalable multilevel approach. Operations Research, 71(2), 536–562. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2022.2311

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#202

Post by indymike » Sat, Mar 14, 2026, 7:16 PM UTC

PaulDavisThe1st wrote: post #119

varispeed wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Actual evidence of kompromats? Israel? Bribes? We pay them ... If one was to really think about national level bribes then presumably Saudi Arabia would be worthy of mention, given their involvement with the Trump (extended) family.

> Actual evidence of kompromats?

Epstein.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#203

Post by JumpCrisscross » Sat, Mar 14, 2026, 7:18 PM UTC

gwerbin wrote: post #183

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> for many years political manipulation of economic data has screwed things up This is a myth. But a self-fulfilling one, given we’re cutting budgets to those agencies because so many Americans believe it.

Yes, it's the classic "both sides" myth. It is promulgated in order to manufacture consent for doing the thing that "both sides" are supposedly already doing.

> It is promulgated in order to manufacture consent for doing the thing that "both sides" are supposedly already doing

Manufacturing consent is horseshit because it gets the direction of causation wrong. Nobody is master planning any of this. Storytellers sell stories. And then politicians sense the vacuum of attention.

Fox News and Shadowstats don’t whip their flock up so DOGE could cut budgets. They did it to sell ads. DOGE then cut, mostly randomly. And there was no fury about these cuts so they stuck.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#204

Post by CalRobert » Sat, Mar 14, 2026, 7:20 PM UTC

Joel_Mckay wrote: post #65

CalRobert wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The economy can get better while life gets worse for most people. After all, an economy where 95% of the work was done by enslaved people might produce amazing profits and a very high GDP....

GDP is a measure of economic activity, and goes up when people are forced to rebuild after natural disasters etc. %Debt to GDP excluding military pay and allowances indicates how your grandchildren will live. Above >130% they will be poor, and remain poor indefinitely. You may disagree, but it is not like anyone wants this to happen. The economic conservatives were compromised, and went insane =3

I wish it were easier to measure well-being. Someone who works 20 hours a week and half has as much money may well be enjoying life more than someone working 40 hours a week, but we don't quantify this well.

When I lived in California I was always weirded out by colleagues talking about how they never took vacations. It's like bragging about being poor.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#205

Post by PaulDavisThe1st » Sat, Mar 14, 2026, 7:21 PM UTC

indymike wrote: post #202

PaulDavisThe1st wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actual evidence of kompromats? Israel? Bribes? We pay them ... If one was to really think about national level bribes then presumably Saudi Arabia would be worthy of mention, given their involvement with the Trump (extended) family.

> Actual evidence of kompromats? Epstein.

I'm not following the file disclosures in particular detail; I haven't yet heard any disclosures from the files that are evidence of kompromat. What are you thinking of?

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#206

Post by input_sh » Sat, Mar 14, 2026, 7:22 PM UTC

SideburnsOfDoom wrote: post #114

input_sh wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would argue the empire already collapsed, about a year ago when DOGE was tasked with killing every form of soft power that were put in place to present the country in the best possible light across the world. Even with tons of talented and well-intentioned people and everyone fully aligned to re-build everything broken, it'd take decades to rebuild that trust that was lost in a matter of weeks.

> It'd take decades to rebuild that trust that was lost in a matter of weeks. There is some truth to this. Other examples of crossing the line and breaking long-term trust would be: To Canada: Statements about Canada last year. To Europe: The idiocy around Greenland earlier this year To the Middle East: Current events.

If I may go a step further in history: tearing up the JCPOA (AKA the Iran deal) was like shouting from a megaphone "the US word means nothing now". Even the Palestine situation could've been predicted 6 years before Oct 7th when the US was the very first nation to move the embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, before 5 others followed (none of them "significant").

Things have definitely accelerated in the second term, but it's not like there weren't signs that political leaders definitely noticed were disruptive, even if the wider public weren't as aware at the time.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#207

Post by JumpCrisscross » Sat, Mar 14, 2026, 7:22 PM UTC

salawat wrote: post #145

jeffbee wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have a substantive complaint to make about the BLS methodology? So far all I see in your remark is shadowstats vibes.

I've never met a single person willing to attest to filling out a BLS survey. Not once. If their methodology is built on that + unemployment data from State Unemployment agencies + data from payroll processors, anyone not collecting state unemployment benefits is invisible to the system, and half of the payroll is actually not even consituted of U.S. Citizens. Admittedly, if I could find a single instance of someone…

> I've never met a single person willing to attest to filling out a BLS survey

I’ve never met a single chicken farmer. Does that mean I should be sceptical about them existing? Like, what sort of metric is this for truth finding?

> to assume benevolent intent

No need. Markets move on these data. The rich and powerful bet their money on what they say.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#208

Post by garte » Sat, Mar 14, 2026, 7:23 PM UTC

PaulDavisThe1st wrote: post #172

silvestrov wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is only true as long as there is money for the military. When money is gone, the military is gone. Money goes easily when a country has a large debt and need other countries to continue to buy into that debt.

It's not the military that makes it impossible. It's the incredible level of interwoven left/right, progressive/conservative, urban/rural populations in more or less every state. More people voted for the current president in CA than in more or less any other state. Yet it is viewed as a "blue" state. The millions of Democratic voters in large cities like Houston or Atlanta may not control their state legislatures, b…

[flagged]

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#209

Post by jeffbee » Sat, Mar 14, 2026, 7:24 PM UTC

salawat wrote: post #145

jeffbee wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have a substantive complaint to make about the BLS methodology? So far all I see in your remark is shadowstats vibes.

I've never met a single person willing to attest to filling out a BLS survey. Not once. If their methodology is built on that + unemployment data from State Unemployment agencies + data from payroll processors, anyone not collecting state unemployment benefits is invisible to the system, and half of the payroll is actually not even consituted of U.S. Citizens. Admittedly, if I could find a single instance of someone…

> I've never met a single person willing to attest to filling out a BLS survey.

Unless you have introduced yourself with this question to thousands of people, this is a totally meaningless statement. It says more about your social circle, your grasp of descriptive statistics, and the weird online stew you are soaking your brain in than it says about the CPS.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#210

Post by asdff » Sat, Mar 14, 2026, 7:24 PM UTC

mark_l_watson wrote: post #25

The phrase "when US data becomes unreliable" is misleading in one sense: for many years political manipulation of economic data has screwed things up. Calculation of unemployment and real debt has seldom matched the norms of most other western countries. Add military (often black budgets) spending without much oversight or accurate accounting. The wealthiest people in the USA are now in the mode of grabbing what they…

Calculating unemployment seems like it is always going to be a challenge no matter how it is done. For example, the current system in the US does not track unemployed graduates, as they have not been laid off and are not filing for unemployment benefits.