201–210 of 263 posts
While there is a massive US advantage in space launch, it should be used to the maximum. It's not going to last forever (while perhaps, sufficiently long that China fizzles out demographically before it's gone).
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> any one of them taking out a couple sats and causing debris would cause a chain reaction that would effectively turn space into a dump You may not realize how big space is relative to the size of a few sats.
https://conference.sdo.esoc.esa.int/proceedings/sdc9/paper/3... You may want to read an actual study about it. And this doesn't even consider the possibility that militarization of starlink satellites may cause them to get taken out, which will trigger the KS the same way.
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Oh my goodness, this is deeply untrue. China is facing a massive population implosion. A lot of their global strategy can be understood through that lens: they are racing to accumulate power, standing, and wealth before the implosion starts to kick in.
Everyone is seeing a population implosion: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_world#/med... we are already past peak child.
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The last 15 years has significantly changed peoples' opinions on that matter. I’m gonna need to see some immigration statistics on influx of foreigners into the PRC to believe that claim.
Might have more to do with language than anything else TBH
They could be importing young people from nearby India, yet they're not. Why?
We are already in some sense past the threshold of sats required for a potential civlizational collapse that would be caused by the loss of access to space. There are way too many sattelites, starlink militarizing means it's a viable target now for enemy nations, any one of them taking out a couple sats and causing debris would cause a chain reaction that would effectively turn space into a dump, let's not even menti…
> any one of them taking out a couple sats and causing debris would cause a chain reaction that would effectively turn space into a dump You may not realize how big space is relative to the size of a few sats.
Musk started SpaceX with Michael D. Griffin, the guy who invented large constellations of military satellites to win a nuclear war. And then he funded Starlink. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_D._Griffin
Starlink project began after Musk and Greg Wyler parted their ways. Wyler approached SpaceX in 2014 with a proposal to build OneWeb (then called WorldVu), and initially they worked on the project together. But then they started to accuse each other of doing various underhanded things, and split. After that, Musk decided that he could do a similar and even better system without Wyler, and that's how Starlink was born…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Everyone is seeing a population implosion: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_world#/med... we are already past peak child.
Some are doing worse than others, and China is doing close to the worst.
The dual-use problem with Starlink is really just the most visible version of something happening across the military. Phones with civilian GPS chips are increasingly used alongside dedicated mil-spec hardware, simply because the commercial stuff is more usable and gets updated faster. The real strategic question isn't whether Starlink can be weaponized - of course it can - it's what happens when military operations…
If you turn commercial infrastructure into a military tool, you put it within the firsts rows of targets' list to dismantle in case of conflict.
Given the large number of Starlink's satellites, you will inevitably have to use their own space debris to dismantle them, which will turn the LEO orbit inoperable (for centuries). With this you reduces the agility that was giving those satellites.
You would therefore be forcing the use of military satellites placed at higher orbits (lower resolution, number, more use of fuel, slower) and also forcing to use military airplanes and drones to fly over your territory (exposition).
Basically I read the article as a warning.
It's not great that they found starlink terminals on Russian drones (they've since tried to lock them down more). These should be export controlled and geo-locked as they are arguably much more powerful than any missile.
SpaceX already does geo-lock them to an extend. But the terminals are exported to so many countries that any meaningful controls are impossible.
While there is a massive US advantage in space launch, it should be used to the maximum. It's not going to last forever (while perhaps, sufficiently long that China fizzles out demographically before it's gone).
To be honest, I think US demographic trends are a lot worse than whatever is going on with China.
By 2100, US will look about the same as Western Europe looks today: ageing, but still OK. China will be no more.