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No, it doesn't cost Anthropic $5k per Claude Code user

martinalderson.com

201–210 of 374 posts

Re: No, it doesn't cost Anthropic $5k per Claude Code user

#201

What people don't realize is that cache is *free*, well not free, but compared to the compute required to recompute it? Relatively free. If you remove the cached token cost from pricing the overall api usage drops from around $5000 to $800 (or $200 per week) on the $200 max subscription. Still 4x cheaper over API, but not costing money either - if I had to guess it's break even as the compute is most likely going idl…

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Re: No, it doesn't cost Anthropic $5k per Claude Code user

#202
post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm surprised, isn't it forbidden to use the Max plan as part of a company? Just curious, as I thought it was forbidden by the ToS but I'm not sure if I have a good understanding of it

Most companies forbid it though, since you're not covered by any legal protection - for example, Anthropic can use your data or code to train new models and more.

This maybe was the case year+ ago but this is no longer the case, used to be most; now it is some/few

Re: No, it doesn't cost Anthropic $5k per Claude Code user

#203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everyone who's used Opus knows it's better than the others in a way that isn't captured by the benchmarks. I would describe it as taste. Lots of models get really close on benchmarks, but benchmarks only tell us how good they are at solving a defined problem. Opus is far better at solving ill-defined ones.

> Everyone who's used Opus knows it's better than the others in a way that isn't captured by the benchmarks. I would describe it as taste. Ah, the "trust me bro" advantage. Couldn't it just be brand identity and familiarity?

I have a project where we've had Opus, Sonnet, Deepseek, Kimi, Qwen create and execute an aggregate total of about 350 plans so far, and the quality difference as measured in plans where the agent failed to complete the tasks on the first run is high enough that it comes out several times higher than Anthropics subscription prices, but probably cheaper than the API prices once we have improved the harness further - at present the challenge is that too much human intervention for the cheaper models drives up the cost.

My dashboard goes from all green to 50/50 green/red for our agents whenever I switch from Claude to one of the cheaper agents... This is after investing a substantial amount of effort in "dumbing down" the prompts - e.g. adding a lot of extra wording to convince the dumber models to actually follow instructions - that is not necessary for Sonnet or Opus.

I buy the benchmarks. The problem is that a 10% difference in the benchmarks makes the difference between barely usable and something that can consistently deliver working code unilaterally and require few review interventions. Basically, the starting point for "usable" on these benchmarks is already very far up the scale for a lot of tasks.

I do strongly believe the moat is narrow - With 4.6 I switched from defaulting to Opus to defaulting to Sonnet for most tasks. I can fully see myself moving substantial workloads to a future iteration of Kimi, Qwen or Deepseek in 6-12 months once they actually start approaching Sonnet 4.5 level. But for my use at least, currently, they're at best competing with Athropics 3.x models in terms of real-world ability.

That said, even now, I think if we were stuck with current models for 12 months, we might well also be able to build our way around this and get to a point where Deepseek and Kimi would be cheaper than Sonnet.

Eventually we'll converge on good enough harnesses to get away with cheaper models for most uses, and the remaining appeal for the frontier models will be complex planning and actual hard work.

Re: No, it doesn't cost Anthropic $5k per Claude Code user

#204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Never have I read something that screamed Bay Area more than this lmao.

This product wouldnt be needed if they had a Juicero to dispense refreshing fresh squeezed juice anytime.

Re: No, it doesn't cost Anthropic $5k per Claude Code user

#205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd love to be a fly on the wall when this argument is tried in front of a bankruptcy court. It drives me nuts. Of course there's evidence that they're selling tokens at a loss. The only thing these companies sell are tokens. That's their entire output. OpenAI is trying to build an ad business but it must be quite small still relative to selling tokens because I've not yet seen a single ad on ChatGPT. It's not like t…

You're missing costs. - Amortized training costs. - SG&A. - Capex depreciation. All the above impact profitability over various time horizons and have to rolled into present and projected P&L and cash flow analysis.

We have amortized training cost estimates. Inference to training compute over model lifetime is 10:1 or over for major models at major providers.

In part due to base model reuse and all the tricks like distillation. But mainly, due to how much inference the big providers happen to sell.

So, not the massive economic loss you'd need to push models away from being profitable. Capex and R&D take the cake there.

Re: No, it doesn't cost Anthropic $5k per Claude Code user

#206
tldr: the author argues it is closer to costing 500 USD per month IF a user hits their weekly rate limits every week.

Which is probably a lot more correct than other claims. However it's also true that anybody who has to use the API might pay that much, creating a real cost per token moat for Anthropics Claude code vs other models as long as they are so far ahead in terms of productivity.

Re: No, it doesn't cost Anthropic $5k per Claude Code user

#207

A huge number of people are convinced that OpenAI and Anthropic are selling inference tokens at a loss despite the fact that there's no evidence this is true and a lot of evidence that it isn't. It's just become a meme uncritically regurgitated. This sloppy Forbes article has polluted the epistemic environment because now theres a source to point to as "evidence." So yes this post author's estimation isn't perfect bu…

I'd love to be a fly on the wall when this argument is tried in front of a bankruptcy court. It drives me nuts. Of course there's evidence that they're selling tokens at a loss. The only thing these companies sell are tokens. That's their entire output. OpenAI is trying to build an ad business but it must be quite small still relative to selling tokens because I've not yet seen a single ad on ChatGPT. It's not like t…

This is all true but it isn't really important for the argument people are making. What is more important is the marginal cost per token. If each token sold is at a marginal loss, their losses would scale with usage, that simply can't be happening with API pricing. But in general, yes I agree with you and I'm sure they are taking a huge loss on Claude Code.

Re: No, it doesn't cost Anthropic $5k per Claude Code user

#208

Why does Claude charge 10x for API, compared to subscriptions? They're not a monopoly, so one would expect margins to be thinner.

It's why every integration basically tries to piggyback off of a subscription, and why Anthropic has to continuously play whack-a-mole trying to shut those services down.

Re: No, it doesn't cost Anthropic $5k per Claude Code user

#209

> Qwen 3.5 397B-A17B is a good comparison It is not. It's a terrible comparison. Qwen, deepseek and other Chinese models are known for their 10x or even better efficiency compared to Anthropic's. That's why the difference between open router prices and those official providers isn't that different. Plus who knows what open routed providers do in term quantization. They may be getting 100x better efficiency, thus the…

Comparing open-source models like Qwen against Anthropic’s models is absolutely foolish. First of all, Anthropic has never disclosed the actual parameter count or architecture of their models. Second, it’s well known that these open-source models more or less distill from other models and use MoE, which allows them to run at much lower computational costs. Using Qwen as a comparison point only proves the blog post author is foolish. The article devoted such a large portion to discussing Qwen on OpenRouter, I find it hard to believe.

Re: No, it doesn't cost Anthropic $5k per Claude Code user

#210
post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Omg, I can't believe that's real I wanted to believe that you're essentially trolling, but no - that service exist. And not an upstart, there is coverage going back several years. Our societies are seriously fucked.

They are, but the dogs got it pretty good now. Good shows for good boys.
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