Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Most of the US economy is in a recession

businessinsider.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

201–210 of 257 posts

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#201

Post by lovich »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #198
lovich wrote: post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So what was your point? Someone called out that the common joe was doing worse off, you responded that gdp is higher than ever. Are you making the claim that this is an acceptable state? Or are you making another claim?

> What specifically has changed? >> Realizing that GDP growth can be achieved while average joe on Main Street is struggling Me: that’s not new. That didn’t change. > that this is an acceptable state? If we’re in a Cat 3 hurricane and someone complains about it being Cat 5, pointing out that’s wrong isn’t pro-hurricane.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47303072

can you please look at this comment that you replied to at the beginning of this thread, and understand why I might be irate at your response.

I had multiple paragraphs typed out that I have deleted so I could have a real conversation.

Why do you think I responded to you the way I did?

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#202

Post by tonyedgecombe »

rich_sasha wrote: post #190
amazingamazing wrote: post #98

2023 - "The US is already in a 'rolling recession'": https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/recession-mi... 2024 - vibe cession: https://www.businessinsider.com/consumers-pessimistic-on-eco... 2025 - "a recession in 2025": https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/2025-stock-m... people just so desperately want the USA to be in a recession it seems.

I find the "K-shaped" recovery a very compelling narrative. Some companies are going stratospheric, some are decaying, the average is +1% growth or so. So depending on where you are, you will see the economy as either booming or floundering. There's plenty of little nuggets like this to point to. US 2025 GDP ex AI investment was in a recession. US equity market ex tech does not outperform e.g. Europe. And so on.

I'm not sure that means much. Absent AI investors would have put their money somewhere else.

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#203

Post by tonyedgecombe »

SlinkyOnStairs wrote: post #134
amazingamazing wrote: post #98

2023 - "The US is already in a 'rolling recession'": https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/recession-mi... 2024 - vibe cession: https://www.businessinsider.com/consumers-pessimistic-on-eco... 2025 - "a recession in 2025": https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/2025-stock-m... people just so desperately want the USA to be in a recession it seems.

> people just so desperately want the USA to be in a recession it seems. You've got it the wrong way around. People are desperate to explain why their experience of the economy; Which for most people is "not good", doesn't match the formal economic metrics and definitions of a "recession". Constant layoffs, horrible job market, even worse housing market, and the lingering inflation. The other half of this is of cours…

>People are desperate to explain why their experience of the economy ...

Wasn't there some polling recently that showed that most people thought they were doing well themselves but that everybody else was suffering. Clearly that doesn't add up and it's largely down to the overly negative tone of the news media.

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#204

Post by tonyedgecombe »

_heimdall wrote: post #35
mr_00ff00 wrote: post #19

> "Excluding new era investment, the other 89% of real private spending rose by only 1% with no job creation," the strategist wrote. That isn’t what a recession is

We've been redefining recession recently, it may not matter much what the textbook definition is.

It does matter. It's best not to let politicians redefine the facts in their favour.

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#206

Post by tonyedgecombe »

kristianp wrote: post #86

> "Do we really need to continue focusing mostly on inflation when 89% of the private economy is in a recession and the 11% which is booming — new era pursuits — are by their very nature 'disinflationary'?" I've been thinking the same thing about Australia. The federal government has withdrawn power bill subsidies, which boosted inflation figures, causing the central bank to raise interest rates. Does it really make…

Interest rates are a blunt instrument but they do have an impact. The biggest problem is the pain isn't spread evenly. If you have just fixed your mortgage for five years then they don't impact you but if you are just about to renew then you will be bearing more of the cost. If you are a net saver then increases are generally a good thing.

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#207

Post by tonyedgecombe »

uncivilized wrote: post #25
state_less wrote: post #13

Oil spiked to $110/barrel on the WTI front month futures contract this afternoon, a $20 jump up from Friday. At this pace we'll be at $150 a barrel in a week or two. If oil infrastructure keeps getting hit, even if the strait of hormuz is reopened, it'll take a long time to recover from. That's on top of the continued call for regressive tariffs and a weakening labor market. I think we're heading for a recession unle…

He’ll taco when he sees the stock market tanking

Israel is making the decisions here, there is no tacoing for them.

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#208

Post by Matthyze »

vesrah wrote: post #45
_heimdall wrote: post #42

The most compelling hypothesis I've heard for why Iran is bombing GC neighbors is in an attempt to pop the AI bubble. I obviously don't know if that's true, but that would be extremely clever and this article shows how effective it could be.

I found this video pretty interesting, it talks about why Iran is going after its neighbors. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jIS2eB-rGv0

Literally (explicitly) a holocaust denier.

https://youtu.be/o2Nq--qU9Kc?si=DDs_73ZrEPs5UGK9&t=3684

No credentials whatsoever - IIRC a Bachelor's degree in English, but definitely not a professorship.

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#209

Post by Intermernet »

awesome_dude wrote: post #125
donavanm wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> if you're in the UK, Middle East, Australia (food is about to become more expensive & tricky) Australias not in a terrible position. We produce ~50% of our NPK fertilizers used, and this is down primarily because were importing more from places with cheaper/distant environmental impact. Conversely, IIRC, UK and Ineos just shut down their significant last fertilizer plant and the north sea fields is its own thing. S…

The Australians are currently pointing to diesel reserves or on hand in the farms is quite low, suggesting that mechanised cropping/transport of farm products is going to provide a pinch point. I have no idea if the reports are accurate, or an attempt to put the market into readiness for inflation. edit: Whether real or imagined, there is panic buying of petrol happening - this could lead to supply issues by itself.…

As someone who has done physical work at the sites of Australian diesel reserves, they aren't designed to last that long.

I do still feel we're better off than most. We can actually offset the price of fuel by reducing the government excise, and even subsidising it. We've done it before. 2 gulf wars, a global oil crisis, general middle east chaos? Australia has typically done better than most.

Would still be good if we had an actual sovereign mineral fund and hadn't sold our gas rights to everyone else, but I suppose we have to live with the stupid shit the previous governments have done.

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#210

Post by joe_mamba »

AngryData wrote: post #167
amazingamazing wrote: post #98

2023 - "The US is already in a 'rolling recession'": https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/recession-mi... 2024 - vibe cession: https://www.businessinsider.com/consumers-pessimistic-on-eco... 2025 - "a recession in 2025": https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/2025-stock-m... people just so desperately want the USA to be in a recession it seems.

Or maybe it is in one, but neither the government nor wallstreet wants to admit it because it will kill their investment markets, kill political careers, and cause large shifts in voting patterns which threatens established parties and companies. When even big tech companies are starting to say it, the highest margin businesses with the highest paid workers, how do you imagine most other industries are and have been…

Yeah I dislike this disingenuous and out of touch argument that "we're not in a recession because this random graph found is going up". More people can struggle to pay bills even if the DOW and S&P is up.

Most people don't judge the economic situation based on graphs the TV shows them, they judge it based on how much month they have left at the end of the pay cheque and how easy can they get a new decent job when they get laid off.

The economy != the stock market. I wish HN would get that, but since a lot of people here are asset millionaires, they're way too out of touch.

Post reply on HN