Judge orders government to begin refunding more than $130B in tariffs • Hacker News Board

Re: Judge orders government to begin refunding more than $130B in tariffs

#201

Post by danielmarkbruce » Thu, Mar 05, 2026, 3:21 PM UTC

cj wrote: post #168

danielmarkbruce wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, it's not a conflict of interest. It's perhaps dumb, or morally bad, or several other things.

> dumb, or morally bad This is easy to say in hindsight. There was a non-zero chance the decision could have went the other way. Also, companies aren't stupid. They don't buy insurance against things that are impossible. And the supreme court doesn't hear cases that are 100% obviously illegal.

It was non-zero but close to zero.

Companies don't want to deal with the headache for many things. It's not a given over what time horizon and how much work is involved to get the refund. It's totally sensible to sell the claim for 70 cents on the dollar for example.

The supreme court absolutely hears cases that are obvious. They do it for several reasons - to create clarity, to narrow scope, to set a very clear precedent, and other reasons.

Re: Judge orders government to begin refunding more than $130B in tariffs

#202

Post by dawnerd » Thu, Mar 05, 2026, 3:22 PM UTC

throwaway667555 wrote: post #92

I'm gonna have a stroke. The Congressional Budget Office found that consumers paid 70-80% of the tariffs, totaling more than $1000 per household. Where is my refund?

There's going to have to be class actions filed against the retailers if consumers want anything.

Re: Judge orders government to begin refunding more than $130B in tariffs

#203

Post by hypeatei » Thu, Mar 05, 2026, 3:22 PM UTC

AdamN wrote: post #181

hypeatei wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rich people consume a lot more, so a consumption tax would be ideal if you eased other tax categories like income tax and/or capital gains. It's easy to administer and would boost investment across the economy IMO.

I wouldn't ease any taxes - we simply can't afford lower taxes. Debt is nearly $40T (125% of GDP)!

Well, government spending could go down along with that too. Obviously, that ain't happening with Republicans (see: the OBBB and failed DOGE project) but in theory you could do major reform and craft coherent policy while not triple dipping tax-wise. I think you could implement quite a high consumption tax model and be okay -- you'd have the added benefit of very simple collection and enforcement since it's all at the tail end.

Re: Judge orders government to begin refunding more than $130B in tariffs

#204

Post by raincole » Thu, Mar 05, 2026, 3:23 PM UTC

danielmarkbruce wrote: post #122

satvikpendem wrote: post #30

Cantor Fitzgerald, formerly led by Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and is now run by his son, went to various companies that were affected by tariffs and bought the rights to their potential tariff refunds for 20% of the value on the expectation that it'd be struck down by the courts. Now they stand to make huge returns of 3 to 5x for being correct on that bet, while, of course, consumers get nothing. Now if this i…

This is wrong. It's not insider trading. Lutnick didn't have inside information. His son just had a brain. Anyone who read the case knew which way the court was going, it was the least surprising decision ever. Perhaps the only surprising thing is that the court ever heard it.

It's not insider trading, but surely it's a conflict of interesting? If you ignore all the specific name calling, isn't it still quite wrong that one minister can financially bet against the administration?

Re: Judge orders government to begin refunding more than $130B in tariffs

#205

Post by intrasight » Thu, Mar 05, 2026, 3:23 PM UTC

Jeremy1026 wrote: post #117

duxup wrote: post #96

Absolutely absurd that we’re at this point. The courts / SCOTUS let the government roll out a massive and obviously illegal tax on citizens for a long time. They should have stepped in earlier. Now we the people probably don’t get our money back….

> probably Hah, we are 100% not getting our money back. And the higher, tariff level, prices aren't going to go back down either.

The "Importer of Record" gets the refund. I read that a large fraction of those importer of record are Chinese companies.

Re: Judge orders government to begin refunding more than $130B in tariffs

#206

Post by parineum » Thu, Mar 05, 2026, 3:24 PM UTC

mothballed wrote: post #177

danielmarkbruce wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, because "the government" isn't one blob. The court system is separate from the administration. And the supreme court justices aren't giving the internal deliberations to someone in the administration, especially when the administration is one of the parties in the case.

.... what? 3 of the justices were nominated by Trump. You think the people appointing them didn't have internal deliberations before they were appointed, including about things Trump had thought about like tariffs? Even FDR knew the 'separation' was a farce, that's how he magically got the court to go along with progressive programs they prior didn't support, after the 'Switch in time that saved nine.' SCOTUS largely…

> .... what? 3 of the justices were nominated by Trump. You think the people appointing them didn't have internal deliberations before they were appointed, including about things Trump had thought about like tariffs?

Following that logic, it make sense that those 3 voted with the administration.

Oh wait...

Re: Judge orders government to begin refunding more than $130B in tariffs

#207

Post by throwaway667555 » Thu, Mar 05, 2026, 3:24 PM UTC

commandlinefan wrote: post #127

Jeremy1026 wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> probably Hah, we are 100% not getting our money back. And the higher, tariff level, prices aren't going to go back down either.

Did they actually raise prices, though? I haven't noticed any significant jumps; my understanding was that they were absorbing (for the most part) the tariffs for the time being, but planned to raise prices in the near future.

Look at the CPI chart and draw a trend line ignoring recent years. You'll see we're living under 2034 price levels currently.

Re: Judge orders government to begin refunding more than $130B in tariffs

#208

Post by nebula8804 » Thu, Mar 05, 2026, 3:24 PM UTC

Herring wrote: post #33

hypeatei wrote: post #7

[flagged]

In 2023, 28% of U.S. adults scored at or below Level 1 literacy, indicating significant difficulty with everyday reading tasks. https://www.nu.edu/blog/49-adult-literacy-statistics-and-fac... You guys are surrounded by other college-educated SWE, you have no idea how bad it is out there. People without a college degree went Trump 56-43. People with a college degree went for Harris 56-42. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki…

How do we fix this should be the question asked. Is it even possible at this point?

I guess there is no free lunch, each person who realizes the importance of education has to start taking it seriously right now and spend their lives getting their community to start taking it seriously and maybe hopefully the next generation can emerge much better off. We let this mess fester for decades and now we are paying for it for the rest of our lives because there is no free lunch.

Re: Judge orders government to begin refunding more than $130B in tariffs

#209

Post by magicalhippo » Thu, Mar 05, 2026, 3:24 PM UTC

coldpie wrote: post #130

magicalhippo wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The White House now has a $130B slush fund to distribute more or less however they want, with no accountability because accountability is by-design impossible. The government knows exactly who paid what in duties, otherwise they couldn't tell if you were trying to avoid duties. So they know exactly who to pay back and how much.

> The government knows exactly who paid what in duties No, they have a record of who handed the money over to the government. This does not tell you who paid the duties. There's going to be a whole lot of Trump toadies & business owners in the chain, siphoning cash from refunds before they work their way back to the people who actually paid them. And that's not even getting into the open corruption & fraud that will…

> No, they have a record of who handed the money over to the government. This does not tell you who paid the duties.

The entity that handed over the money to the government is the entity that paid the duties, and is the one the government must refund.

If an entity has passed those costs on does not change that, and does not turn the 130B into a slush fund.

However I agree that consumers will be likely be royally screwed by this debacle, that much was obvious from the start.

Re: Judge orders government to begin refunding more than $130B in tariffs

#210

Post by parineum » Thu, Mar 05, 2026, 3:25 PM UTC

indoordin0saur wrote: post #163

petcat wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're saying that he had access to all of the Supreme Court Justices' chambers?

You don't need to have access to everything for it to be insider trading, just more than the general public. Lutnick would know what case they are making to the court, perhaps the confidence of the attorneys in winning as well as information on how the case was going.

All of that is based on public knowledge, including the confidence of attorneys.