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America vs. Singapore: You can't save your way out of economic shocks

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Re: America vs. Singapore: You can't save your way out of economic shocks

#201

Post by lotsofpulp »

foxyv wrote: post #192
lotsofpulp wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>We should just socialize necessities like food, shelter, and medical care so there is no chance of "Fucking it up." How does socializing work if there are insufficient workers relative to non workers? I.e. the supply of food/shelter/medical care is insufficient to meet the demand?

Why would there be insufficient workers relative to non-workers? Socializing health care, shelter, and food does not lead to a worker shortage. In fact, having a healthier and taken care of population leads to prosperity in general. In addition, it leads to reduced costs. Countries with socialized medicine pay a fraction of what America does for better health outcomes.

>Why would there be insufficient workers relative to non-workers?

The total fertility rate and the trends of that rate of basically every country, especially the ones with socialized medicine.

https://www.populationpyramid.net/norway/2025/

Re: America vs. Singapore: You can't save your way out of economic shocks

#202

Post by raw_anon_1111 »

everforward wrote: post #197
raw_anon_1111 wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s almost impossible for an upper middle class couple to retire in the US before their 65 unless they have some type of government provided or private company provided health insurance like teachers, police officers, military etc. It’s about $25K a year for a decent plan which is doable. But you have to hope that Republicans - and yes this is a political issue - don’t successfully kill the ACA and make it impossibl…

Without digging into this too far, I do think it’s possible but it does require starting early and sticking to the plan. I’m not one of those people, but I know people who are. The mean household income for the 4th quintile is 115k a year. The mean of the middle quintile is 70k. There’s a theoretical 45k a year spread if you earn like the 4th quintile and spend like the 3rd (evidently possible since a lot of people l…

Here are the numbers for context:

https://dqydj.com/household-income-percentiles/

The median household income doesn’t earn the median wage every year from when they started working. That’s just a snapshot and it’s highly correlated with age. I’m 51, I damn sure couldn’t afford to max out my 401K. That means I was 25 in 1999. I definitely could afford to max out my 401K - which was then $10K a year - when I was making $35K a year.

Especially when new grads are coming out now with student loan debt.

Re: America vs. Singapore: You can't save your way out of economic shocks

#203

Post by lelanthran »

bluGill wrote: post #22

You know who they didn't interview: those who regret saving so much. Many of those people are dead and so the regret is something we can only apply on assumption that they would. I've known a few people who unexpectedly died before they hit retirement age. I've know a few people who retired and died suddenly. The vast majority of people in a "first world" country have an expected lifespan of about 80 - but there is a…

> you can't take it with you (at least in most religions) so spend it.

I don't understand this PoV at all.

I can't take it with me, sure, but I'm happy anyway if I leave it behind to my kids.

This PoV that you need to spend, spend, spend to get the most value for your money is very primitive - my kids will do better if I die before touching my nest egg, and if I don't at least I'll have a longer runway to live without working.

There is no downside here, other than the artificial one that dictates you spend it all and leave nothing behind.

Re: America vs. Singapore: You can't save your way out of economic shocks

#204

Post by everforward »

skrtskrt wrote: post #193
everforward wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To me it sounds like a tax structured in a strange way so it doesn't obviously read as a tax. It's essentially a forced loan to the government at subpar rates. The "tax" is the delta between what the government pays out for the bonds vs what a bond of equivalent risk in the free market would have paid. The magnitude of the investment also probably makes it impractical for anyone but the very wealthy to retire before…

> The magnitude of the investment also probably makes it impractical for anyone but the very wealthy to retire before that starts paying out... But they can pull out for housing right? That's an enormous portion of most people's expenses. If I didn't have to worry about housing, I could be living large on less than half of my salary, I would certainly semi-retire at least.

Sort of. So far as I can tell, you can withdraw to buy housing but I don’t think you can pay rent out of it.

The loans are also 75% max loan-to-value so I think until you can get 25% of the purchase price in your account you have to pay CPF and rent (or live with family).

Also, not an economist, but I suspect the forced savings has a wildly inflationary effect on housing prices. You can’t do much else with the money until you retire, so I would guess the price of housing rises up to match the forced savings rate.

Re: America vs. Singapore: You can't save your way out of economic shocks

#205

Post by bombcar »

carlosjobim wrote: post #160
philwelch wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Money can be passed down to your children and grandchildren though.

You can do it before you die if you want to do that. They're not much helped by you sitting on it until you die.

That's one of the biggest takeaways - if you're an average American with average retirement, you will die in your 70s and 80s and your children will inherit ... just before their retirement, likely.

So instead of waiting to die, give it earlier when it helps more; or give to grandchildren.

Re: America vs. Singapore: You can't save your way out of economic shocks

#206

Post by scottyah »

raw_anon_1111 wrote: post #174
glimshe wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I absolutely have health insurance, the most expensive available on my state. That doesn't protect me 100%, but what health insurance (including the ones available at most companies) does? People who have poor money management skills believe that FIRE=Ramen and no health insurance... In fact, it's about getting a 30K car (the one I bought new 3 years ago) instead a 70K car despite having the money.

And what happens when the Republican Party gut the ACA and you have a pre-existing condition. Do you know what life was like trying to get insurance with a pre-existing condition before 2012?

Then they can just skip insurance. Most people don't need it, especially if they already have a lot of money (which is what FIRE means)

Re: America vs. Singapore: You can't save your way out of economic shocks

#207

Post by scottyah »

mattmanser wrote: post #169
glimshe wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I absolutely have health insurance, the most expensive available on my state. That doesn't protect me 100%, but what health insurance (including the ones available at most companies) does? People who have poor money management skills believe that FIRE=Ramen and no health insurance... In fact, it's about getting a 30K car (the one I bought new 3 years ago) instead a 70K car despite having the money.

99% of people have poor money management skills? It's statements like this that makes FIRE a fringe scene.

you're saying 99% of people think FIRE = ramen? I doubt that many even have heard of it

Re: America vs. Singapore: You can't save your way out of economic shocks

#208

Post by erichocean »

joe_mamba wrote: post #97
erichocean wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> outsiders will end up paying into the system By definition, outsiders don't have to pay into the system since they already have a gov't somewhere else that is dedicated to them, just like the Viennese do.

>By definition, outsiders don't have to pay into the system They absolutely do pay into the system when they move to and work in Vienna. By outsiders in this context I meant foreign workers. I assumed that was clear from the context of the discussion.

> I meant foreign workers

So did I. Being foreign, they can work at home and not pay into a system they have no part of. Problem solved.

Re: America vs. Singapore: You can't save your way out of economic shocks

#209

Post by scottyah »

raw_anon_1111 wrote: post #191
Jach wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So what did you do? Clearly you didn't die. Did you just have no insurance for the week before the new job started, or what? This also happened to you while you were working and slightly between jobs. So it's not really a FIRE concern if the concern is the US messing up the health care system even more in that it would effect everyone whether working or not. Generally speaking, an answer to mitigating a lot of types…

No, my then fiance/now wife and I canceled our wedding we had planned, and went to the courthouse and got married six months earlier so I could get on her insurance. Also, just so happen I did end up in the hospital three weeks later because something happened that affected my breathing for an entire year. And how do you “go back to work” if the entire reason you need to go back to work is that you have a health cond…

You do know you can have a wedding even if you're already on-paper married? The ceremony really has nothing to do with the legal act.

Re: America vs. Singapore: You can't save your way out of economic shocks

#210

Post by Retric »

raw_anon_1111 wrote: post #173
snake42 wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

FIRE doesn't depend on having a tech job. Its all about income to expense ratio. Planning for medical events is something that gets talked to death in these communities.

How do you plan for a potential quarter million dollar medical bills over a couple of years?

Good insurance is one aspect including long term disability coverage if you haven’t retired.

That’s the thing medical expenses when young are unlikely enough insurance is a viable strategy. Long term it’s worthwhile to move to a country with a less expensive medical system. You can move basically anywhere in retirement and be better off.

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