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Russia's economy has entered the death zone

economist.com

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Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#201

Post by benterix »

pseudohadamard wrote: post #194
ericmay wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think there are strategic lies here. Russia's war machine and their economy have taken a massive hit from sanctions. The news/media cycle and "experts" obviously want to make money and recycle the same stories and "any day now" kind of rhetoric, but that doesn't make sanctions any less of a great option. It takes time.

It's also possible to run an economy on empty for a long, long time provided there's a war on. Look at Germany, who literally ran the country on empty throughout all of WWII, books like Adam Tooze's "Wages of Destruction" cover this in great detail. There was a saying in the last few years, "enjoy the war, the peace will be terrible", and it was, because once you took the wartime tourniquet off all the toxins flooded…

> can you see anyone giving Putin's kleptocracy a few trillion dollars

Unfortunately, if the leaks are true, they might actually be discussing that.

"Fortunately" Putin is more bent on having the whole Donbas which Ukraine will not give so I don't believe this happens in the near future - which is bad for Russia as a country.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#202

Post by tim333 »

nradov wrote: post #57
ericmay wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They will sell their gas at discount to China until the very end. Yes and no. There's a minimum price they need to sell it, and somewhere in between they may not actually make enough between the minimum and sale price to actually fund their military. Nevermind the awesome job you guys are doing blowing up refineries and other industrial facilities. It'll be good when Europe stops importing Russian gas and steps up…

I favor harsher sanctions against Russia but let's not be too optimistic. It doesn't take much funding to recruit a poor, desperate guy from the outer provinces, hand him a surplus rifle, and send him into a human wave attack. In a perverse sort of way, killing off those guys might actually be reducing Russian government expenses.

That stuff isn't working very well at the moment though. The poor desperate guys are getting killed by drones faster than they can be recruited. And Russia's other thing at sending missile at cities is quite expensive.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#203

Post by bulbar »

benterix wrote: post #198
esseph wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What the fuck did I just read

Probably the parent lives in one of the countries neighboring with Russia and unfortunately Russia is very unfriendly towards its neighbors, invading them when it wants, so you live in constant fear. From that perspective, this is just a variation of "I want to live in peace" expressed in an extreme way.

Many welcomed the Nazis when they invaded Eastern Europe because they relieved them from the Soviets. When literal Nazis are perceived as the better option you can imagine the alternative isn't very shiny.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#204

Post by benterix »

pandaman wrote: post #159
shevy-java wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Sanctions can and will work against Russia. We hear this mantra since almost 5 years. I am not saying there should not be sanctions, but at some point the strategic lies need to end.

Russia had been under sanctions since 2014 and in January of 2015 its economy was already "in tatters", as reported by Obama in the State of the Union that year. Then, in March of 2022, great Joe Biden proclaimed that he has turned "ruble into rubble". I am sure the 20 packages of sanctions since then destroyed anything that left and it's really just vacuum in place of Russian economy now... Why end the lies if you c…

Any form of exaggeration is counter-productive. Russian economy is going slowly down, with the main cause being the war or Putin's need to fund it, and in a part also because of sanctions. But it can be low for decades, Russians will never go out on streets about it. But hopefully when Putin dies Russia returns to normal relations with the rest of the world and this bad epoch can end.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#205

Post by tim333 »

Haven880 wrote: post #170
zh3 wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a strong supporter of Ukraine, I would say ultimately wars are won or lost by economic forces (the side that can't afford it any more loses). That's how the USSR lost the Cold War, and all I can hope is that all of Europe really has your back in this one.

Russia will win on this one. Productions are largely internal. What they lack they get from China. Ukraine loss so many men. Their populations will just go down from now on. USA and China are on the verge of recessions. I really doubt USA will prioritize Ukraine over Israel or China ignoring its own needs. Cede the land and rebuilt. Better to cut losses now than even more loss.

There are some issues. Russia is not so interested in a bit of land - they'd use it as a base to take over Ukraine.

The US may not prioritize Ukraine but the war is mostly funded now by Europe who don't want Russia rolling west into Europe.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#206

Post by benterix »

torginus wrote: post #109
wiseowise wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> World War 2 was not won due to the economy. It was literally won due to the economy. The moment Germans failed to knock out Soviets and Japanese pulled Americans into the fight their days were numbered due to insane industrial base of the both countries. Soviet meat waves, industry + lend lease won Europe and US finished Japanese.

> meat waves sigh

>> meat waves

> sigh

I agree it's an unfortunate way of presenting it but Stalin was a guy who didn't care for anyone's life and was literally sending people in waves to die with the NKVD sadists shooting scared young boys whenever they tried to run away from the horror of war. Dead if you go, dead if you don't. It's romanticized an celebrated today, but it was a mass tragedy incomparable to one that happened to ny other country in recent history.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#207

Post by benterix »

rich_sasha wrote: post #180
k_bx wrote: post #3

As a Ukrainian at war since day 1 – I don't buy it. They will sell their gas at discount to China until the very end. Military force is the only way to get them to the death zone.

Some interesting entangled thoughts. As per Clausevitz, wars end either when you kill every last soldier or the ones who are still alive decide not to fight. I can't see the former happening. So it's about ratcheting the pain of continuing to something unbearable. To the level where Russia can't make enough cash selling resources to make more tanks and bombs and also feed people. The issue is of course that Russians…

> They seem happy when Russia wins another 5m^2

But who? People watching the national TV and followers of war bloggers for sure. But for the rest the current situation is just a very dark fragment in the history of Russia and everybody is just waiting for it to end.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#208

Post by tim333 »

franktankbank wrote: post #188
francescomi wrote: post #173

I live in Dubai, UAE and I can see with my own eyes that the sanctions strategy doesn't work, here Russians buy whathever they like and send it to Russia. There are companies that do this. They hire workers from poor countries promising a good life here in Dubai and they send them in Ukraine to fight. To fight agains Russia we need to attack every nations that have deals with Russia. Let's sanction everyone who makes…

Why would you live there?

It's popular with Brits. Sun and no tax mostly.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#209

Post by tim333 »

franktankbank wrote: post #189
wuschel wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I found the metaphors / analogons rather disturbing e.g. metabolism, etc. Does the human body have a Chinese assistent with an oxigen tent at 8000 metres?

No kidding. This is a world war already, with China and India on the side of Russia. Fuck them.

They are kind of neutral. China has announced it "will supply humanitarian energy assistance to Ukraine."

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#210

Post by tim333 »

O1111OOO wrote: post #157

I wonder if the end of Russia as a world threat is something that benefits or hurts the US. The US runs a trillion dollar war machine, a multi-trillion dollar military industrial complex. It needs to feed it. It needs enemies. At the very least, it needs a constant threat to justify its existence (even if it has to create those threats). If Russia ceases to be a threat, does the US begin to hassle more countries? Doe…

The US as a whole gets little benefit from spending a fortune on the military. It would probably be better off. That said there's still China.
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