More likely to be related to the E Files than the X ones
E-File? Like, taxes?
Officials Claim Drone Incursion Led to Shutdown of El Paso Airport
201–210 of 631 posts
Re: Officials Claim Drone Incursion Led to Shutdown of El Paso Airport
#202Earlier quoted context omitted.
Shooting down civilian American aircraft like that would seem to just be for an even more strong response… Seems unlikely.
They would want to avoid escalation. Escalation with cartels historically does not go well for anyone involved.
Escalation by attacking US civilians or the homeland has also gone poorly. It’s been the casus belli many times, notably ending in two Japanese cities getting nuked…
Re: Officials Claim Drone Incursion Led to Shutdown of El Paso Airport
#203Earlier quoted context omitted.
"Maybe, or maybe FL180 is a nice clean line for class A airspace. No need to bother transcontinental flights for a local issue." Way more plauible
What does that mean sorry?
It means any aircraft transitioning over the area at high altitude isn't impacted, because they're too high to care.
It is a ground and "everything near the ground" stop. Meaning low altitude helicopters and private aircraft have to consider it, even transitioning, but realistically commercial aircraft not taking off/landing in the area won't.
Re: Officials Claim Drone Incursion Led to Shutdown of El Paso Airport
#204Map : https://tfr.faa.gov/tfr3/?page=detail_6_0091
This one's responding.
https://skyvector.com/?ll=31.836456906566234,-106.7029640846...
Re: Officials Claim Drone Incursion Led to Shutdown of El Paso Airport
#205Earlier quoted context omitted.
My guess is nuclear test. Airport circle to secure the transport of the device to the ground adjacent to the test site. Trapezoid is the test site, wider on the side that is less controllable (border-facing). Disconnected because two separate teams executed in parallel without informed oversight.
... I don't think they're detonating a nuclear weapon in a National Monument 50 miles from a large US city... There are plenty of better places for them to do this.
NTS was 60-80 mi away from Las Vegas.
yes there might be safer locations for an underground nuclear test, but how many of them offer the same "F U" PR capacity relative to Mexico/Juarez/cartels, etc.
Re: Officials Claim Drone Incursion Led to Shutdown of El Paso Airport
#206Earlier quoted context omitted.
Even Cartels know that shooting down civilian aircraft in US airspace would be an escalation that would lead to heavy retaliation. Doesn't seem likely to me.
Unless we start bombing them first. That’s not hard to imagine these days.
Not hard to imagine these days? Wouldn't you hope for an intervention if it were known that a hostile, state-level military planned to down civilian aircraft?
Re: Officials Claim Drone Incursion Led to Shutdown of El Paso Airport
#207During the ICE surge in Chicago drone traffic was banned for a while but this is obviously much more extreme if for a similar reason. Note that at least on some roads out (I'm most familiar with the road to Carlsbad from El Paso since I used to have to travel there in grad school, often from ELP) there are already CBP checkpoints.
Re: Officials Claim Drone Incursion Led to Shutdown of El Paso Airport
#208Earlier quoted context omitted.
> GPS disruption Ah, a very plausible explanation! https://avbrief.com/overnight-gps-testing-affects-huge-area-... The map indicates it will be centered on Lampasas and the region of effect seems to be east of El Paso. So, if the GPS exercises are the cause, the TFRs would've been more likely to bring in Austin, Dallas, and San Antonio. Isn't it possible that a 10-day TFR could be lifted early once the concern is pas…
> > The map indicates it will be centered on Lampasas and the region of effect seems to be east of El Paso. So, if the GPS exercises are the cause, the TFRs would've been more likely to bring in Austin, Dallas, and San Antonio. Wait so people in South Texas won't be able to use GPS on the ground either? Also if the goal is to disrupt the cartels and the people using GPS to know where they are at in the process of cro…
The Global Positioning System is owned and operated by Space Delta 8 at Schriever Space Force Base in CO[1]. Testing in collaboration the US Army (the primary customer of GPS services) is hardly noteworthy.
[1] https://www.spaceforce.mil/About-Us/Fact-Sheets/Fact-Sheet-D...
Re: Officials Claim Drone Incursion Led to Shutdown of El Paso Airport
#209Earlier quoted context omitted.
Even Cartels know that shooting down civilian aircraft in US airspace would be an escalation that would lead to heavy retaliation. Doesn't seem likely to me.
Unless the government is planning an attack on the cartel[s] that is so existential that such action wouldn't be considered an escalation but rather a tic for tat. A trapped animal will generally use all its facilities regardless of its expected effectiveness.
Remember that there is no "the" cartel, just so many different towns and interests and bribed officials. It makes it a significant (and perhaps convenient) misnomer dont get me wrong, but maybe important to remember.
Extremely good, highly researched book if you want to get angry at me or call me idiot!
Re: Officials Claim Drone Incursion Led to Shutdown of El Paso Airport
#210As someone else mentioned, there’s some speculation in aviation subreddits that the bounds of the altitude restriction map to the MANPAD capabilities that some cartels are purported to have. https://www.reddit.com/r/aviation/comments/1r1s4zt/comment/o... My read is that the admin is planning forceful strikes on the cartels within Mexico and is worried about their ability to retaliate by taking down US aircraft across…
Shooting down civilian American aircraft like that would seem to just be for an even more strong response… Seems unlikely.
If only this was a certainty - Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 was shot down with 298 people killed 12 years ago but still no one was directly punished for it...