We've gone from "it's glorified auto-complete" to "the quality of working, end-to-end features, is average", in just ~2 years.
I think it goes without saying that they will be writing "good code" in short time.
I also wonder how much of this "I don't trust them yet" viewpoint is coming from people who are using agents the least.
Is it rare that AI one-shots code that I would be willing to raise as a PR with my name on it? Yes, extremely so (almost never).
Can I write a more-specified prompt that improves the AI's output? Also yes. And the amount of time/effort I spend iterating on a prompt, to shape the feature I want, is decreasing as I learn to use the tools better.
I think the term prompt-engineering became loaded to mean "folks who can write very good one-shot prompts". But that's a silly way of thinking about it imo. Any feature with moderate complexity involves discovery. "Prompt iteration" is more descriptive/accurate imo.