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American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

kielinstitut.de

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Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#201
post #192
post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

your question implies that the person in charge of tariffs has any idea of the effect of using them...

I've heard this defence plenty from other Americans. & the campaign pushed "built in America" as a goal, so it seems likely the person in charge had this idea

so as stupid an idea as the tariffs then

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#202

I'm glad they've done the work here and put a figure on it - the impact absolutely needed to be quantified - but I also have to say... to the surprise of absolutely no-one with even the most basic grasp of how economies function. People, lots of people, lots of people who have a really deep understanding of national and global economics (unlike me), have been warning about this since talk of tariffs became common cur…

> What was going through your heads?

The same thing as usual: people don't like how things are going, they demand change, but they're not specific, so the result is extreme, and then people demand change again, and on it goes. There's no great insight or rationale going on. People are just dumb animals in hats.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#203

Almost all the comments acting like this is some truth bombshell, like people in trumpistan all thought raising tariffs magically made the us economy better. This is a straw man, no? Tariffs are a mid-long term strategy to encourage onshoring business, for reasons including military, national security, and political influence on foreign powers. This is a complicated topic involving the global economy and evolving int…

The use of tariffs as a mid-long strategy, in my view, would require a stable, long-term communication that the US government will implement careful, strategic tariffs alongside incentives to strengthen chosen domestic industries where they believe a domestic alternative is feasible. We haven't seen anything even close to that at any point in this tariff rollercoaster - tariffs for products that cannot be produced at scale domestically (coffee, bananas), tariffs for grudges, tariffs that only exist for a week, tariffs that are written post-hoc after a Truth post to fit what the president said. There's an argument to be made for domestic protectionism, but the people currently at the levers are not serious policy-minded folks.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#204

Almost all the comments acting like this is some truth bombshell, like people in trumpistan all thought raising tariffs magically made the us economy better. This is a straw man, no? Tariffs are a mid-long term strategy to encourage onshoring business, for reasons including military, national security, and political influence on foreign powers. This is a complicated topic involving the global economy and evolving int…

Many people in Trumpistan do believe tariffs magically make the US economy better.

Then there are the sanewashers who try to act like there is a grand strategy behind taxing uhhh... bathroom vanities... then removing the tax a few months later.

Both are wrong, just different flavors and with different moral and intellectual culpability for being wrong (the latter are worse).

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#205

Ladies & Gentlemen, the President of the United States of Amerca: “Dear Jonas: Considering your Country decided not to give me the Nobel Peace Prize for having stopped 8 Wars PLUS, I no longer feel an obligation to think purely of Peace, although it will always be predominant, but can now think about what is good and proper for the United States of America. Denmark cannot protect that land from Russia or China, and w…

It is quite amusing watching people try to argue that there's a very serious plan behind Greenland whilst Trump privately lobbies for it with the arguments of a young and very spoiled child. His tariff preferences have the same level of thought behind them, at least until the people that have the slightest idea of how things actually work can tone them down and put his ideas on the shelf for long enough to stave off serious damage and unwind their TACO trades.

It's entirely possible he's not even informed enough on the issue to be intentionally lying.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#206

Isn't this literally economics 101? How did we ever even end up imagining that tariffs are somehow paid by the exporter??

Kind of. Econ 101 normally covers tax incidence (which side bears the burden of a tax). It has a lot to do with elasticity of both demand and supply. If foreign exporters can easily shift to other markets or adjust production (elastic supply), they'll pass most of the tariff cost to consumers through higher prices. If American consumers have few substitute products (inelastic demand), they'll end up absorbing most of…

> pass most of the tariff cost to consumers

What do you mean by "pass the cost"? Exporters do not pay tariffs, importers do. The exporter doesn't give a shit because it doesn't affect them at all.

This is one of the most fundamental misunderstandings of how tariffs work in the first place. The entity that's picking up the cargo at the port is who literally has to pay CBP for them to release the goods. The middleman (say, Walmart) may pass the cost to customers or whatever, but tariffs are entirely inconsequential and irrelevant to foreign exporters. There's no way to send a bill to a foreign entity demanding a tax for some goods that have arrived at a port, after all.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#207
I remember predicting years ago that if MAGA got in again they'd raise taxes massively and sell it through some kind of deception that convinced people it was actually a tax cut or something else.

I thought what they'd do is push for a national sales tax (which would be regressive) with the promise of repealing the income tax, but when it came to the last part they'd just kind of conveniently forget about that and we'd end up with a huge national sales tax on top of existing income tax.

But this works too.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#208

I'm glad they've done the work here and put a figure on it - the impact absolutely needed to be quantified - but I also have to say... to the surprise of absolutely no-one with even the most basic grasp of how economies function. People, lots of people, lots of people who have a really deep understanding of national and global economics (unlike me), have been warning about this since talk of tariffs became common cur…

As a Brit who studied history, the parallels to 1930s Germany are too strong for comfort. So I would suggest reading up on that for some answers. Although as the comparison hopefully makes clear, you worrying about tariffs is missing the point, it's more a question of basic democracy at this point. I'm also somewhat concerned about your (edit: as in the USs) new found lust for Lebensraum, because again, that went wel…

As a German, I am generally cautious about drawing hasty parallels with the Holocaust, but I must admit: now that you mention it, the Sturmabteilung and the Schutzstaffel probably began their work in the streets of the country in a similar way to ICE today.

"""

Sturmabteilung (SA)

The SA was formed in 1921 as the paramilitary fighting organization of the NSDAP and protected party events. After 1933, under Ernst Röhm, it carried out street violence against Jews, communists, and trade unions, grew to millions of members, but was crushed in 1934 in the Röhm Putsch.

Schutzstaffel (SS)

The SS started in 1925 as Hitler's elite bodyguard under Heinrich Himmler and emancipated itself from the SA. From 1934, it took over police duties, concentration camp guarding, and from 1936, the Gestapo, directing deportations and the Holocaust.

"""

It sends a chill down my spine when I think about this comparison. I recently heard about an ICE agent who tried to drag an indigenous woman out of her car and said to her, “You're next!”

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

I don't buy this - Harris had a big bump in the polls as soon as she entered the race and I think she could have won if she had offered voters anything . This bullshit that American's won't vote for a woman is just an excuse not to run women and to deflect blame towards a culture war issue and away from the fact that the democrats don't actually have popular policies. I voted for Harris, I even canvased for her, but…

You know what’s interesting though is I think that a Republican woman would be unbeatable. Many Democrats would be salivating at the historical opportunity.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#210

There's an entire world to trade with. If the Americans choose to shoot themselves in the foot, we won't be the ones paying for the bandage. Also, it's deeply naïve to assume tariffed countries would absorb the cost. Why would they? It's like going into a shop and asking for a discount because you just took out a loan. Why would the shop give you a discount for something you inflicted on yourself? And what makes you…

I bought a mini PC today. On the US website, it goes for $460, on the German website it goes for 360 euros or $420. But that price includes 20% tax so its actually $335. Prices for the same product are about 37.5% higher in the US. It's nuts and the reverse of how it used to be not long ago.

The only thing I worry is DJT will ask Google Apple Amazon etc to impose a 10 % fee on sale in Rest of world to fund his bank accounts.

In a sense I am happy. All empires decline. This will decline USA forever.

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