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Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy

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Re: Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy

#201
post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, both are 100 pct in the pocket so the only possible answer is a third entity which is highly unlikely.

Biden appointed Lina Khan. "Both parties are the same" is lazy and unhelpful.

It's wiser to judge the parties by actions rather than rhetoric. From both parties there has been complete absence of meaningful action on the issue, even though both have regularly cycled through complete control of government with majorities in the house and senate while also holding the presidency.

Re: Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy

#202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rent seeking is all Capitalism is about. They call it a moat.

This is misuse of language. Rent seeking is anti-competitive by definition. The current system, as far as it encourages and rewards rent seeking, is anti-capitalist.

Anticompetitive behavior is completely within lines for capitalism. Survival of the fittest and efficient marketplace and all that.

Besides, what's the other option, rent seeking is socialism? A barter system?

Re: Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy

#203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Google realized this a long time ago; there is no ad-free paid version of Google Search. Google actually experimented with this about a decade ago (I know, I was one of the suckers who paid), but it got canned because why the fuck would you pay google when u-bloc is free? Companies absolutely will offer ad-free experiences. Google has youtube premium, which even compensates creators with half your sub as well. Evenl…

> Companies absolutely will offer ad-free experiences. Google has youtube premium, which even compensates creators with half your sub as well. Evenly distributed too. Youtube premium is not ad-free, you still gets whatever ads are embedded in the actual content.

YouTube premium delivers the content you select to consume to you without displaying ads in-platform. If you then use that ad-free platform to consume content that includes ads, that's on you.

Re: Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy

#204

OpenAI is here because Sam Altman is NOT a product guy. He craves Apple style consumer success, but he's terrible at productizing his technology. Remember the marketplace of custom GPTs? Hell even the name ChatGPT. Anthropic had to show them how to build useful workflows for developers using AI. Meanwhile, OpenAI delivered... Sora. To actually quote Sam Altman: "I think of ads as a last resort for a business model."…

> It's just maddening to me because this technology could be so much more useful for purposes way beyond advertising.

AI is a perfect technology for Ads though. Instead of me wasting time reviewing multiple products for my use case, ChatGpt will just give me top 3 recommendations with the pros and cons and then buy it for me.

Re: Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy

#205

There is something to be said about the state of advertising. Increasingly it seems you must go to the almighty Google or Meta in order to launch any business. We're looking to expand into a new business line and have out grown our pharmacy capacity. The new business line will cost about $2M in software dev, and $3M for the new facility. The advertising budget? $40,000,000 (annual). We can build 10 robotic pharmacies…

> The new business line will cost about $2M in software dev, and $3M for the new facility. The advertising budget? $40,000,000 (annual). The reason the advertising budget is such a high number and a recurring charge is that effective advertising returns an ROI on each dollar spent. If the software budget was increased 10X to $20 million, would the company get 10X as many customers? No. What about the facility? If you…

This is very correct, the only thing I as an engineer care about is that we rigorously optimize our spend to get the best possible CAC (Customer Acquisition Cost) It’s an incredibly hard problem and has many variables, that’s why the platforms charge what they do, they allow you to work with these variables in a somewhat approachable way.

Re: Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy

#206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I stumbled upon this one as well, but I do not understand it really: Why is my job safe if Ads prove there is no AGI? Because even if there would be AGI, they could (and would?) serve ads anyway?

If AGI was around the corner, they wouldn’t have to resort to what some consider a scummy way to make money. They’d would become the most valuable company on the planet, winning the whole game. Ads show you they don’t know what else to do but they desperately need money.

> consider a scummy way to make money.

How should Chatgpt survive then?

Re: Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy

#207
post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The new business line will cost about $2M in software dev, and $3M for the new facility. The advertising budget? $40,000,000 (annual). The reason the advertising budget is such a high number and a recurring charge is that effective advertising returns an ROI on each dollar spent. If the software budget was increased 10X to $20 million, would the company get 10X as many customers? No. What about the facility? If you…

That misses the point though. Google and Meta have designed systems which capture nearly the entire surplus. In a non-monopolistic environment you'd expect somebody to be willing to step in at a bit less than Google's rates and offer the same outcomes.

The parent comment did a sneaky thing and gave the advertising budget then pivoted into rants about Google and Meta. They never actually said “All of this money goes to Google and Meta”. It was just expected that on HN everyone would assume as much because that’s what everyone is familiar with.

In the pharmaceutical industry, I can guarantee their advertising funnel is much wider than two social media platforms. Think about all the places you see pharmaceutical ads: TV, billboards, even ads on buses, that sketchy doctor’s office full of company swag. That $40 million is not going all to Google and Meta even if the GP comment tried to imply it was.

Re: Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy

#208
post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“Have you tried the new models, bro?”

I’m convinced that there will be people declaring that this isn’t AGI all the way up to the moment that they become permanently unemployed.

Keep lying to yourself

Re: Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy

#209

There is something to be said about the state of advertising. Increasingly it seems you must go to the almighty Google or Meta in order to launch any business. We're looking to expand into a new business line and have out grown our pharmacy capacity. The new business line will cost about $2M in software dev, and $3M for the new facility. The advertising budget? $40,000,000 (annual). We can build 10 robotic pharmacies…

Advertising spend being too high is a symptom of a supply glut. Too many products in the marketplace, not enough consumers to buy them.

In a different world where there are higher wages, more people would have more spending power. Then companies wouldn't have to spend as many dollars on advertising, which they could split between higher wages, higher margins and lower prices.

Alas, the short-term single-firm directional incentive for company decision makers in that world leads to marginal prioritization of higher margins. The loss of wages leads to loss of consumer spending power but it's spread across the economy. But every firm has the same incentive so they all do the same thing, and the good thing gets ruined.

This line of thinking leads to a Georgist-ish conclusion: The class conflict shouldn't be between workers and employers. They should be allies; the real cause of nobody being able to afford anything is rent extractors. (Writing in the 1800's, George [1] was most concerned about land rents; but the advertising monopoly of Google / Meta may be another form of extractive rent with similar characteristics.)

Maybe Henry Ford was on to something when he shocked the world by paying his employees enough to afford the product they were making (more than doubling many workers' wages)...

[1] https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/your-book-review-progress-a...

Re: Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy

#210

To those who believe ads are evil and must be stopped, I ask how the world will work if we kill the freedom to sell space for commercial messages where people can see them.

I don't think ads are evil, but the techniques used to get eyes are evil. Using fear, hate, desire to get people to click has a negative impact on society. I don't think ads should be banned, but engineering 'engagement' definitely should.

Ads should be banned
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