Earlier quoted context omitted.
Something like the brics can challenge that. Having a safe currency vehicle that can sustain itself much like the dollar that the world will trust is all the momentum you need. Much like why the dollar is. You have a big player now like China backed by other large populated countries etc brazil.
Brics is nothing but a meeting, conversation and PR arena. It is not an Union of any kind, not military, not scientific, not political, not trade, not cultural. BRICS having it own separate currency and a central bank is as far from reality as the samw thing happening to the qualifying countries in Mundial.
USD share as global reserve currency drops to lowest since 1994
201–210 of 315 posts
Re: USD share as global reserve currency drops to lowest since 1994
#202Earlier quoted context omitted.
Sure; and I'm referring directly to those "emergency situations", which aren't much of an "emergency" as most people would understand the word given that they've engaged in QE for ~7 of the past twenty years.
> 7 of the past twenty years A lot of shit went down over that period. But you seem upset by QE in general. It seems to upset a lot of people, possibly because the Fed created a lot of money, but that's what central banks do, they create and destroy money. It's really not that much of a big deal. People lose sight of the fact that money is an abstraction and not something concrete.
That is a choice we have made. Historically it hasn’t been that way.
Re: USD share as global reserve currency drops to lowest since 1994
#203Re: USD share as global reserve currency drops to lowest since 1994
#204Earlier quoted context omitted.
There’s nothing fundamentally stopping all currencies from floating against gold and gold being the base asset
Only the fact that it would be an idiotic policy that would destroy the economy. Why would you let your monetary policy be run by gold miners in China, Russia and Australia? They could cause inflation or deflation simply by increasing or decreasing gold production. Conversely how is the Fed supposed to manage inflation if it runs out of gold? Gold is an industrial metal, also used in jewelry, not a financial panacea.
Gold at least places real constraints on the growth of the money supply. Imperfect as it is, it’s better than a financial cabal in one country creating money to suit their needs irrespective of any other objective.
Re: USD share as global reserve currency drops to lowest since 1994
#205Earlier quoted context omitted.
> that is a superior system It’s more robust and less efficient. Transaction costs—and opportunities for middlemen—will increase. But the chances that your country’s economy is entirely shut down on the whim of one man in Washington is reduced. > the BRICS system is based on honoring multiple currencies The BRICS system is nonsense, as evidenced by basically nobody using it beyond a totem amount. Both the PBoC and RB…
I agree that it has been unused but disagree that it will always go unused. I think that China is using the US current global antagonism to encourage others to participate. https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/brics-payment-system/
China is in a border dispute with another founding member of the BRICS. Another is in the Western Hemisphere and will become a proxy-financial frontline.
There will be yuan, Euro and dollar payment rails. (If the EU had failed to unify, they’d be getting divided up between Washington and Moscow again.)
Re: USD share as global reserve currency drops to lowest since 1994
#206Earlier quoted context omitted.
> higher yield means the bond is sold at higher discount i.e. cheaper Yes. The Fed set a policy of higher rates. It did that by selling bonds and driving the price up. Then it set a policy of reducing rates, and was able to do that by just selling fewer bonds. Not buying them. That implies strong demand for these assets. (You can’t use price as a proxy for demand in Treasuries since it’s an explicitly manipulated pri…
Long bond rates have somewhat decoupled from short term rates set by the fed. For instance, they just slashed short term rates 25bps, but long bond rates (10+ years) have actually gone up a few basis points since the cut. This is exactly what we'd expect if demand for treasuries wasn't keeping pace with US debt issuance. I mean, if you look at the debt, and the USD's current position, there really is no way out for t…
Could you point to the date range you’re referencing?
> if you look at the debt, and the USD's current position, there really is no way out for the US government other than inflating the currency and cashing in that reserve status for a reset
Of course there is. Loads of options.
Broadly speaking, the talk around rates and commodities tends to involve serious people totally divorced from the talk-show/Zero Hedge circuit.
Re: USD share as global reserve currency drops to lowest since 1994
#207Earlier quoted context omitted.
> how being a net exporter relates to it being a myth. I don't see the connection Petrodollar a U.S. policy comes from the 1970s, when the U.S. guaranteed the House of Saud’s security in exchange for them selling their oil in dollars. The reason wasn’t to do some currency scheme, but to ensure the U.S. could always buy Saudi oil in a currency we controlled. Saudi Arabia then invested its profits in Treasuries, which…
I see that as a side show to the overall banking system. I trying to express that this was a reactionary response to an immediate problem rather than a key part of banking.
See what? The geopolitics? The petrodollar was entirely a geopolitical affair. If anything, one could argue petrodollar recycling—together with the fall of the USSR-created the modern American banking system. (The timeline is compelling for e.g. LBO debt.)
Re: USD share as global reserve currency drops to lowest since 1994
#208Earlier quoted context omitted.
I see that as a side show to the overall banking system. I trying to express that this was a reactionary response to an immediate problem rather than a key part of banking.
> see that as a side show to the overall banking system See what? The geopolitics? The petrodollar was entirely a geopolitical affair. If anything, one could argue petrodollar recycling—together with the fall of the USSR-created the modern American banking system. (The timeline is compelling for e.g. LBO debt.)
Re: USD share as global reserve currency drops to lowest since 1994
#209Earlier quoted context omitted.
Everyone knows what’s going on. Europe is slowly reacquiring pants (too slowly for my taste). The US has this ridiculous belief that Europe has no military ability. The truth is that Europe is far too skilled at war, and collectively disarmed after the Second World War and let the US make the decisions and pay for it all because that was the only way to achieve a lasting peace. European armed forces aren’t ready for…
Unfortunately the skeleton analogy is not correct, because it assumes that the foundation is fine, and you just need more beef/muscle/money to scale it up. With the exception of few European countries that did maintain a functional army (Finland, France), other countries' military skeletons suffer from terminally low levels of bone density due to decades of under- and malnutrition. The whole bodies (incl. skeletons)…
Russia is still dangerous and annoying, but not the threat it was before the full scale invasion of Ukraine.
Re: USD share as global reserve currency drops to lowest since 1994
#210Earlier quoted context omitted.
Brics is nothing but a meeting, conversation and PR arena. It is not an Union of any kind, not military, not scientific, not political, not trade, not cultural. BRICS having it own separate currency and a central bank is as far from reality as the samw thing happening to the qualifying countries in Mundial.
no society is going to just bow down for eternity and accept things as they are for long. if an opportunity presents itself. I'm not understanding what "reality" means as if the BRIC nations aren't in that "reality" as we speak. weaponizing sanctions and intimidating macro foreign economies isn't something that other peoples take lightly. the circumstances from the 90's and now are very much different with very much…
There could never be a common currency between them that they can't directly control.