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This is not the future

blog.mathieui.net

201–210 of 430 posts

Re: This is not the future

#201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your point of view is based on extreme reductionism.

It's nature . Whether that word is reductionism is an exercise left to Chomsky?

Models are emphatically not nature.

They are at best an attempt to use our tools of reason and observation to predict nature, and you can point to thousands of examples, from market crashes to election outcomes, to observe how they can be flawed and fail to predict.

Re: This is not the future

#202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Art is not just about the physical painting or book itself, and if you think otherwise you have been and are missing the point.

As someone else put it succinctly, there's art and then there's content. AI generated stuff is content. And not to be too dismissive of copywriters, but old Buzzfeed style listicles are content as well. Stuff that people get paid pennies per word for, stuff that a huge amount of people will bid on on a gig job site like Fiverr or what have you is content, stuff that people churn out by rote is content. Creative writi…

…and the sting is that the majority of people employed in creative fields are hired to produce content, not art. AI makes this blatantly clear with no fallbacks to ease the mind.

Re: This is not the future

#203
I’d still say, this is the future, like it or not. See how much capital has been poured into the caldron?

None of the items is technically inevitable, but the world runs on capital, and capital alone. Tech advances are just a by product of capital snooping around trying to increase itself.

Re: This is not the future

#204
post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are a bunch, for example: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miracle_of_the_House_of_Brande... It had huge impact on world history: it indirectly lead to German unification, it possibly lead to both world wars in the form we know them, it probably impacted colonial wars and as a result the territory of many former colonies, and probably also not their current populations (by determining where colonists came from and…

> Oh, Japan attacking Pearl Harbor/the US. If the Japanese Army faction would have won the internal struggle and had tried to attack the Soviets again in 1941, the USSR would have probably been toast and the US would have probably intervened only slowly and indecisively. Where's Japan getting the oil to fight USSR? The deposits are all too far east [1]. Even with the US out of the war we were denying them steel / oil…

Japan didn't really need to win the war directly, it just needed to put enough boots on the ground to topple the USSR by helping Germany. The Soviets couldn't afford to send a few army groups to East Asia, especially not in 1941 or 1942.

Re: This is not the future

#205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Game theory is not inevitable, neither is math. Both are attempts to understand the world around us and predict what is likely to happen next given a certain context. Weather predictions are just math, for example, and they are always wrong to some degree.

Because the models aren't sophisticated enough (yet). There's no voodoo here. I'm always surprised how many 'logical' tech people shy away from simple determinism, given how obvious a deterministic universe becomes the more time you spend in computer science, and seem to insist there's some sort of metaphysical influence out there somewhere we'll never understand. There's not. Math is almost the definition of inevita…

>Because the models aren't sophisticated enough (yet). There's no voodoo here.

Idk if that's true.

Navier–Stokes may yet be proven Turing-undecidable, meaning fluid dynamics are chaotic enough that we can never completely forecast them no matter how good our measurement is.

Inside the model, the Navier–Stokes equations have at least one positive Lyapunov exponent. No quantum computer can out-run an exponential once the exponent is positive

And even if we could measure every molecule with infintesimal resolution, the atmosphere is an open system injecting randomness faster than we can assimilate it. Probability densities shred into fractal filaments (butterfly effect) making pointwise prediction meaningless beyond the Lyapunov horizon

Re: This is not the future

#206
An interesting perspective on this is why Facebook kept the Sun's microsystems sign in their Palo Alto HQ. Nothing in tech is inevitable, nothing in tech is irreplaceable, nothing in tech is permanent.

Shout out to the Juicero example, because there are so many people out there showing that AI can be also "just squeeze the bag with your hands".

Re: This is not the future

#207

I understand artists etc. Talking about AI in a negative sense, because they don’t really get it completely, or just it’s against their self interest which means they find bad arguments to support their own interest subconsciously. However tech people who thinks AI is bad, or not inevitable is really hard to understand. It’s almost like Bill Gates saying “we are not interested in internet”. This is pretty much being…

I think we're all just sick of having everything upended and forced on us by tech companies. This is true even if it is inevitable. It occurred to me lately that modern tech and the modern internet has sort of turned into something which is evil in the way that advertising is evil. (this is aside from the fact of course that the internet is riddled with ads) Modern tech is 100% about trying to coerce you: you need to…

Well it's not really about AI is it then; it's about Millenia of human evolution and the intrinsically human behaviours we've evolved.

Like greed. And apathy. Those are just some of the things that have enabled billionaires and trillionaires. Is it ever gonna change? Well it hasn't for millions of years, so no. As long as we remain human we'll always be assholes to each other.

Re: This is not the future

#208

I think a more accurate and more useful framing is: Game theory is inevitable . Because game theory is just math, the study of how independent actors react to incentives. The specific examples called out here may or may not be inevitable. It's true that the future is unknowable, but it's also true that the future is made up of 8B+ independent actors and that they're going to react to incentives. It's also true that y…

I think its hubris to believe that you can formulate the correct game theoretic model to make significant statements about what is and is not inevitable.

I don't think OP claimed that. There is no conflict between not able to formulate the true model vs the existence of that actual model.

Just because we weren't able to discover all of the law of physics, doesn't mean they don't apply to us.

Re: This is not the future

#209

I’d still say, this is the future, like it or not. See how much capital has been poured into the caldron? None of the items is technically inevitable, but the world runs on capital, and capital alone. Tech advances are just a by product of capital snooping around trying to increase itself.

The world runs on capital until it runs on votes, and sometimes bullets.

Re: This is not the future

#210

I understand artists etc. Talking about AI in a negative sense, because they don’t really get it completely, or just it’s against their self interest which means they find bad arguments to support their own interest subconsciously. However tech people who thinks AI is bad, or not inevitable is really hard to understand. It’s almost like Bill Gates saying “we are not interested in internet”. This is pretty much being…

> Does it matter? Like how does it matter?

Yes, it matters to me because art is something deeply human, and I don't want to consume art made by a machine.

It doesn't matter if it's fun and beautiful, it's just that I don't want to. It's like other things in life I try to avoid, like buying sneakers made by children, or sign-up to anything Meta-owned.

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