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Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

economist.com

201–210 of 693 posts

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#201
post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Reality is not particularly rosy for new graduates AFAIK. If I lose my job, I wouldn't be super surprised that I might never get a similar job for the rest of my life -- it is not that I do not have the skills, but 1) the amount of time for a laid off SDE to get a new job could reach to years, not months, so I need to do something else to earn $$$, and 2) why are companies going to hire me, who have gap years and are…

>Reality is not particularly rosy for new graduates AFAIK I looked at the statistics[1], and while you could argue new graduates have seen worse (recent grad unemployment is actually lower than much of the 2010s), you can also see that in contrast to previous periods where new grad unemployment is lower than all worker unemployment, this time around new grad unemployment is actually slightly higher. However if you lo…

Break it down by degree. You're losing some important information in the aggregate. Going to degree you see that Computer Science has the 7th highest unemployment rate: anthropology, physics, computer engineering, commercial art & graphical design, fine art, sociology, computer science, chemistry, information systems & management.

Of course you also need to look at underemployment too. Which CS is on the lower end of that. So you have to consider things like that even though there's a higher unemployment rate than performing arts (2x) there is far lower underemployment because people expect to get jobs in their field for CS.

There's more you need to look at too. It's not so easy and you shouldn't just use such a high level approximation if you want to make sense of the data.

Hiring lab has some more interesting information to like the number of postings. CS is way down from "prepandemic" levels, but unfortunately only goes to 2020 (hence the quotes).

https://data.indeed.com/#/

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

New folks will never be hired. RIP to the CS degree. Old staff will be exited. Especially senior and mid level management. If you lose your job, you won't get the same comp again. The days of $500K TC are long behind us. It's the era of downsizing and outsourcing while blaming AI. None of this has anything to do with AI. That's just a scapegoat. Google and Amazon are culling entire US teams and rebuilding them in Asi…

Yeah pretty much. Engineers are going to be at a crossroad where they either turn to the government to finally build in some proper labor laws and other obvious controls (how about re-banning stock buybacks?) or go out to the Wild West and hope they idea can sustain their livelihood. Given the vibes of the community here: I guess I'll look for a Mad Max mask (I'll ofc keep performing my civic duties, though).

> turn to the government to finally build in some proper labor laws and other obvious controls (how about re-banning stock buybacks?)

What would banning stock buybacks accomplish? Companies can still return capital to shareholders in the form of dividends.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Last report I saw said US population was set to drop this year - first time in 250 years. With our demographic boomer bubble, continually dropping fertility, and anti-immigration stance, the trend is likely to continue.

With the growth we already had in 2025 you'd have to nuke LA to end the year with a decline.

https://www.pew.org/en/research-and-analysis/articles/2025/0...

Most population growth was due to immigration for a while, and immigration (for obvious reasons in 2025) is way, way down.

https://www.derekthompson.org/p/the-us-population-could-shri...

what's your report?

>you'd have to nuke LA

Let's not give this administration ideas, please.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Believe it or not, I've been in construction/remodeling for 35 years. We currently have 3 home remodels going on at the moment with more down the road. I've never experienced a slow down. Even during COVID. I'm not your typical HN member I don't think. I've been a computer nerd since I was 14 years old. I come here to stimulate my inner nerd.

> I've never experienced a slow down You didn’t experience a slowdown at the height of the recession circa 2008?

Homeowners are often rich and older and isolated from recessions.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#205
post #47
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's grim everywhere, for everything, all at once. I haven't been able to find work as a graphic designer, motion designer, web designer, web developer, software developer, and a large variety of retail jobs. Been on the job hunt since May, all I've been able to find is a part time position at The Home Depot.

I gotta tell you man, if you can find someone in charge at the backend of the Home Depot and let them hire you as a systems uptime troubleshooter you would easily make any salary you could name for them tenfold. I at at a Home Depot like 10 times a week and let me tell you, they have a major systems problem that is making their operations look like a joke

~~~Problems on purpose because they don't spend the time to fix it IE not going to hire anyone to fix shit because they still make billions this broken way~~~~

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#206
post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

yep. Trump added tariffs on physical goods, but there are no taxes on service imports.

Wait until you hear what he did to h1b program!

The 100k fee on new applicants? drop in the ocean.

The h1b people spend (most) of their salary in the USA and pay US income taxes. Whereas overseas labor spend their salary over seas and pay no US taxes.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Since its a Sunday night during a holiday weekend without any big breaking news, I would suspect that's probably just a bunch of people that had automated sales at $90k, or something similar.

Love that HODL optimism. Looking at the longer charts there seems to be support around $80k so maybe. This could just be holiday shopping. The timing of economics with this though has me worried the support will falter causing a sell off and Monday’s bell will be a bloodbath.

For a look at the shopping economics, this year's bfcm at stripe is pretty fun! http://bfcm.stripe.com people are selling off Bitcoin to have money to buy stuff, and that link is an inside baseball look at how much stuff is being bought.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#208
post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is not the picture I'm seeing on the ground. AI is eliminating certain classes of junior software positions. (Roughly: jobs where explaining a task to junior engineer is more work than asking Cursor/Claude Code/Codex to do it.) Junior engineers can fight back against this by a) getting really good at clarifying requirements b) learning quickly, so their work quality is eventually higher than Cursor can work out…

>Junior engineers can fight back against this by Many juniors can't even meet with a human interviewer. There's no point maximizing for interviews that never come. That's the issue. >This is also a pressure against hiring teams overseas: This seems to agree with the issue. a team of 100 becomes a team of 5 locals and 95 outsourced work. Maybe those 5 managers are better off, but we're still reducing the local workfor…

Surely people who can't get a job aren't "junior engineers" - they're just graduates.

Junior engineers, i.e. people who have already been hired, can indeed fight back by getting really good at their jobs.

But you're right, it doesn't help you get hired if you can't even get an interview.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#209
post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

yep. Trump added tariffs on physical goods, but there are no taxes on service imports.

Section 174's 15 years amortization rule on foreign R&D is kind of an indirect tax.

Overseas labor spend their salary overseas and pay no US taxes. still not the samething.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#210
post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Consumers in the top 10% of the income distribution accounted for 49.2% of total spending, per Bloomberg. If anything, in my opinion, this strengthens the k-shaped economic growth stat that the article mentions.

>Consumers in the top 10% of the income distribution accounted for 49.2% of total spending, per Bloomberg. What was the historical trend? Otherwise you can't draw much from just "49.2%" alone, aside from a vague sense that stuff should be fairer.

> What was the historical trend?

No, it is not normal for 10% of the coountry to power half the spending. Just think about that statistic for a second. Spending includes groceries, services, and other continual needs. A few private jets can't outspend millions of people buying food.

But here's your chart: https://preview.redd.it/2pcvmm0u3jpf1.png?width=798&auto=web...

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