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Pakistan says rooftop solar output to exceed grid demand in some hubs next year

reuters.com

201–210 of 262 posts

Re: Pakistan says rooftop solar output to exceed grid demand in some hubs next year

#201
post #199
post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not reasonably affordable by any real “middle class” metric and the impact a reliable grid has on the industrial and commercial base of an economy is being undervalued by an utterly laughable degree during these discussions. Westerners and rich folks take it for granted as a fact of life at this point. The duck curve is a rounding error when discussing energy storage.

The storage needed to turn solar into a reliable (as any comparable fossil fuel power plant) dispatchable source of power, plus the cost of the solar in the first place, costs less than other sources of dispatch-able power (like gas) in sunny places per kwh. It also scales down better (though not perfectly). Either you can afford it (both storage and solar), or you can't afford power at all, or you don't live in a su…

Well, I certainly can’t make a couple weeks of battery storage pencil out vs. a fossil fuel generator at this point.

The math actually gets worse once you get into combined cycle natural gas at scale.

You I suppose could make an argument that load curtailment is cheaper than planning for the current grid reliability everyone has gotten used to over the past 50 years, but it would be a societal shift.

Seasonal energy storage is what is interesting to discuss, and of course is where that last 2% of grid reliability comes from. It’s also the most expensive part of running a grid. The first watts are basically free, the last are very expensive.

I’d love to be proven wrong within the next decade though! I just personally don’t see the battery storage price going down at the same rates it has been simply due to structural raw material input cost reasons - short of a breakthrough in chemistry. I think we are getting close to the maximum savings achieved by economies of scale with current technology.

Re: Pakistan says rooftop solar output to exceed grid demand in some hubs next year

#202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Batteries are dirt cheap already" they absolutely are not.

Multiple people have now explained you are in error here. I expect you will not repeat this falsehood going forward.

Installed costs for residential battery storage typically range from $800-1,200/kWh in the US market as of 2024-2025.

ROI for 24/7 solar+battery is negative in almost all residential cases using current technology and prices.

Re: Pakistan says rooftop solar output to exceed grid demand in some hubs next year

#203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Batteries are absolutely not cheap for what they store.

How much do you think they cost?

Installed costs for residential battery storage typically range from $800-1,200/kWh in the US market as of 2024-2025.

ROI for 24/7 solar+battery is negative in almost all residential cases using current technology and prices.

Re: Pakistan says rooftop solar output to exceed grid demand in some hubs next year

#204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Solar panels are cheap but batteries are very expensive.

Battery modules (not home scale, but utility scale) are around $50/kWh in China. If we assume a 20 year lifespan and 50% charge/discharge once a day, that adds (ignoring interest) $0.013/kWh to the energy cycled through the batteries (plus a small add from efficiency being not quite 100%). This is quite cheap compared to (say) the fully loaded cost of energy from a nuclear power plant. Smaller units will be more expe…

Installed costs for residential battery storage typically range from $800-1,200/kWh in the US market as of 2024-2025.

ROI for 24/7 solar+battery is negative in almost all residential cases using current technology and prices.

Re: Pakistan says rooftop solar output to exceed grid demand in some hubs next year

#205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And we come back to my original point. Residential roof installation is the most expensive way to install solar power. Utility scale solar is easily haf the cost of residential.

> Utility scale solar is easily half the cost of residential. If it's only half, the problem it's not going to stop residential installs. By the time that utility power gets to them here in Australia it costs about 3 times as much, so they are going to install their rooftop systems anyway. I can't speak for elsewhere, but here in Australia residential installs tend to be over provisioned. A small'ish install is 5kW.…

In the US it's typically about a quarter.

Re: Pakistan says rooftop solar output to exceed grid demand in some hubs next year

#206
post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it demonstrates the increased variance of central planning. The Congo Free State was also centrally planned, and so was the Holocaust, the Holodomor, the Armenian Genocide, Suharto's mass murder of suspected PKI sympathizers, etc. But the expected outcome for poor countries is that they stay poor and don't develop into industrialized export giants the way my laundry list of countries did.

Higher variance isn’t a redeeming feature when the mechanism that generates it lacks rational calculation in the first place. Central direction can occasionally coincide with growth in poor countries because initial scarcity leaves many wasteful paths that still raise output, but that doesn’t establish a positive expected value

I have attempted to make sense of your comment several times, but I cannot figure out what the intended meaning is of most of it.

Re: Pakistan says rooftop solar output to exceed grid demand in some hubs next year

#207
post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

LFP chemistries are approaching ~$50/kWh, and CATL's sodium chemistry is supposed to be ~$40/kWh (per CATL); soon it will be more expensive to ship the battery storage than the storage itself. "Watershed moment:" Big battery storage prices hit record low in China auction - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44504630 - July 2025 (4 comments) IEA: The battery industry has entered a new phase - https://www.iea.org/com…

Currently "Sodium Battery Cell" is priced at US$50–70/kWh on the Shanghai Metals Market, which gives every appearance of being a real thing: https://www.metal.com/en/markets/43 . They list LFP batteries currently at US$38–52/kWh: https://www.metal.com/en/markets/42 I think you may be dramatically overestimating how much container shipping costs.

("Shanghai Metals Market" is reportedly a consultancy which provides price data, not a market.)

Re: Pakistan says rooftop solar output to exceed grid demand in some hubs next year

#208
post #124
post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did whoever named those streets have a stroke? 20, 23, 25, 27, 28, MDR 7, 32, 33, no name at all, 39, 40 And they're not even unique...they recycle them a kilometer further. WAT

It appears that the recycled street numbers each appear on different blocks. Street 6, for instance: I've found it twice so far. But they're still distinct, in that one Street 6 is within Block M 3 B, and another is within Block M 7. Which appears to suggest that blocks are more important at identifying an address than a street name is, and if that's the case then that works just fine. And indeed, a distinct address…

The same is true in Japan. In most areas of the country, locations are addressed by the block they are part of, not by the street.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_addressing_system

Re: Pakistan says rooftop solar output to exceed grid demand in some hubs next year

#209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Multiple people have now explained you are in error here. I expect you will not repeat this falsehood going forward.

Installed costs for residential battery storage typically range from $800-1,200/kWh in the US market as of 2024-2025. ROI for 24/7 solar+battery is negative in almost all residential cases using current technology and prices.

Unless you are proposing the laws of physics are different in the US, this is just a matter of market friction and blockages from regulations and tariffs. You know, the sort of things nuclear bros dismiss with a wave of their hand?

Re: Pakistan says rooftop solar output to exceed grid demand in some hubs next year

#210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's limited to 800W in Germany and 1200W in Utah. It isn't about to replace utility-scale generation anytime soon.

Those limits are just arbitrary regulations. It's easy to install 10x that on a residential roof.

Balcony solar is installed on a unit-by-unit basis. It isn't 800W per building; it's potentially up to 800W for each unit in an apartment.
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