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The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

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Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#201

Post by furyofantares »

ramses0 wrote: post #126
no_wizard wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They’ll devalue the term into something that makes it so. The common conception of it however, no I don’t believe we are anywhere close to it. It’s no different than how they moved the goalpost on the definition of AI at the start of this boom cycle

Jesus, we've gone from Eliza and Bayes Spam Filters to being able to hold an "intelligent" conversation with a bot that can write code like: "make me a sandwich" => "ok, making sandwich.py, adding test, keeping track of a todo list, validating tests, etc..." We might not _quite_ be at the era of "I'm sorry I can't let you do that Dave...", but on the spectrum, and from the perspective of a lay-person, we're waaaaay c…

You have to keep moving the goalposts if you keep putting them in the wrong place.

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#202

Post by Mistletoe »

healsdata wrote: post #15
cjbarber wrote: post #6

> Once AGI is declared by OpenAI, that declaration will now be verified by an independent expert panel. I wonder what criteria that panel will use to define/resolve this.

> The two companies reportedly signed an agreement [in 2023] stating OpenAI has only achieved AGI when it develops AI systems that can generate at least $100 billion in profits. https://techcrunch.com/2024/12/26/microsoft-and-openai-have-...

This is the most sick implementation of Goodhart's Law I've ever seen.

>"When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure"

What appalls me is that companies are doing this stuff in plain sight. In the 1920s before the crash, were companies this brazen or did they try to hide it better?

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#203

Post by andrewmutz »

philipwhiuk wrote: post #79

> Once AGI is declared by OpenAI, that declaration will now be verified by an independent expert panel. > Microsoft’s IP rights for both models and products are extended through 2032 and now includes models post-AGI, with appropriate safety guardrails. Does anyone really think we are close to AGI? I mean honestly?

It depends completely on the term. You can make a great case that we've already reached AGI. You can also make a great case that we are decades away from it.

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#204

Post by pixl97 »

dkdcio wrote: post #175
rapind wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Most people didn't think we were anywhere close to LLM's five years ago. That's very ambiguous. "Most people" don't know most things. If we're talking about people that have been working in the industry though, my understanding is that the concept of our modern day LLMs aren't magical at all. In fact, the idea has been around for quite a while. The breakthroughs in processing power and networking (data) were the ho…

I worked in Microsoft's AI platform from 2018-2022. people were very aware of LLMs & AI in general. it's not magical AGI is a silly concept

AGI is a poorly defined concept because intelligence is a poorly defined concept. Everyone knows what intelligence is... until we attempt to agree on a common definition.

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#206

Post by coldpie »

PyWoody wrote: post #104
coldpie wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm honestly starting to feel embarrassed to even be employed in the software industry now.

I've been telling people I do "computer stuff" since the NFT days.

Five straight years of having to tell everyone who asks about your job that the hottest thing in your industry is a scam sure does wear on a person.

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#207

Post by wrsh07 »

philipwhiuk wrote: post #79

> Once AGI is declared by OpenAI, that declaration will now be verified by an independent expert panel. > Microsoft’s IP rights for both models and products are extended through 2032 and now includes models post-AGI, with appropriate safety guardrails. Does anyone really think we are close to AGI? I mean honestly?

Yes. Some ai skeptical people (eg Tyler Cowen, who does not think AI will have a significant economic impact) think gpt5 is AGI.

It was news when dwarkesh interviewed Karpathy who said per his definition of AGI, he doesn't think it will occur until 2035. Thus, if karpathy is pessimistic, then many people working in AI today think we will have agi by 2032 (and likely sooner, eg end of 2028)

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#208

Post by whamlastxmas »

sekai wrote: post #108
cjbarber wrote: post #14

> Microsoft holds an investment in OpenAI Group PBC valued at approximately $135 billion, representing roughly 27 percent on an as-converted diluted basis It seems like Microsoft stock is then the most straightforward way to invest in OpenAI pre-IPO. This also confirms the $500 billion valuation making OpenAI the most valuable private startup in the world. Now many of the main AI companies have decent ownership by pu…

> This also confirms the $500 billion valuation making OpenAI the most valuable private startup in the world. SpaceX?

Around $350 to $400 billion from a couple sources I saw, but it's a lot of speculation

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#209

Post by peterpans01 »

philipwhiuk wrote: post #79

> Once AGI is declared by OpenAI, that declaration will now be verified by an independent expert panel. > Microsoft’s IP rights for both models and products are extended through 2032 and now includes models post-AGI, with appropriate safety guardrails. Does anyone really think we are close to AGI? I mean honestly?

Most of the things that the public — even so-called “AI experts” — consider “magic” are still within the in-sample space. We are nowhere near the out-of-sample space yet. Large Language Models (LLMs) still cannot truly extrapolate. It’s somewhat like living in America and thinking that America is the entire world.

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#210

Post by vntok »

yahoozoo wrote: post #80
healsdata wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The two companies reportedly signed an agreement [in 2023] stating OpenAI has only achieved AGI when it develops AI systems that can generate at least $100 billion in profits. https://techcrunch.com/2024/12/26/microsoft-and-openai-have-...

So they can just introduce ads in ChatGPT responses, make $100 billion, and call that AGI?

No. When you're thinking about questions like these, it is useful to remember that multiple (probably dozens) professional A-grade lawyers have been paid considerable sums of actual money, by both sides, to think about possible loopholes and fix them.
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