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It's OpenAI's world, we're just living in it

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Re: It's OpenAI's world, we're just living in it

#201

Post by Mon0t0n »

llbbdd wrote: post #166
Mon0t0n wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually funding education via wealth distribution is a great way of ”printing doctors”.

I don't know what wealth distribution means in this context, or why it's relevant at all, but food grows fast and doctors take like 20 years to grow no matter how much money you throw at it or where you get the money. And the context above was more specifically "fully pay health care costs" which is a comical fantasy the moment you try to actually define what that means, because the limit is not the price.

simply, we have a scarcity of healthcare because we don’t invest the wealth we collectively produce in healthcare.

Re: It's OpenAI's world, we're just living in it

#202

Post by ryukoposting »

kllrnohj wrote: post #13

Platforms usually deliver significant value that is hard to replicate. OpenAI doesn't have any such thing. It's trivially replaced, and there's many competitors already. OpenAI is ahead of the curve, but they don't seem to have any particular way to do sticky capture. Migrating to a different LLM is an afternoon's work at most, not nearly the complexity of porting an app between OS' or creating a robust hardware driv…

OpenAI's moat is the data you give it. It's the same reason so many people have GMail accounts, even though we all know Google sucks. It's not that you like GMail better than any other email service, it's because migrating to another service is a pain in the ass.

OpenAI will either use customer data to enshittify to a level never seen before, or they will go insolvent.

Re: It's OpenAI's world, we're just living in it

#203

Post by rhetocj23 »

sixtyj wrote: post #129
aiiizzz wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The openai bet goes "within 4 years, we need to be able to tell the AI to make money for us." Are they on track?

Not sure. https://youtu.be/OYlQyPo-L4g From 7th minute, truth about ChatGPT - 2% paid users.

Yeah the conversion rate is poor and its demand is not price inelastic, I would argue for many individuals demand is very price elastic.

Re: It's OpenAI's world, we're just living in it

#204

Post by tptacek »

lm28469 wrote: post #178
tptacek wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He's saying more than that the companies are going to collapse; he's making pronouncements about the underlying technology, which are claims that are much harder to defend. I'm not entirely sure he understands the distinction between the companies and the technology, though.

Lecun pretty much says the same things, as most experts actually. Only the execs and marketing teams keep yapping about AGI

I didn't say anything about AGI. I think AGI is very silly.

Re: It's OpenAI's world, we're just living in it

#205

Post by DebtDeflation »

kllrnohj wrote: post #13

Platforms usually deliver significant value that is hard to replicate. OpenAI doesn't have any such thing. It's trivially replaced, and there's many competitors already. OpenAI is ahead of the curve, but they don't seem to have any particular way to do sticky capture. Migrating to a different LLM is an afternoon's work at most, not nearly the complexity of porting an app between OS' or creating a robust hardware driv…

That's why OpenAI is hard pivoting towards products now. The big one IMO is Instant Checkout and Agentic Commerce Protocol. ChatGPT is going to turn into a product recommendation engine and OpenAI is going to get a slice of every purchase, which is going to disrupt the current impression/click adtech model and potentially Google and Amazon themselves. It's an open question how hard they can do this without enshittifying ChatGPT itself, but we'll see.

Re: It's OpenAI's world, we're just living in it

#206

Post by ryukoposting »

yalogin wrote: post #40

I am not sure about this. They definitely created a brand new service and data flows that didn’t exist before and they have the majority of the mind share, however it’s already commoditized. The next two to three years will show how the chips fall. I can see that it’s tough or almost impossible for apple to get a share in this but google is right there to take the consumer side. For enterprise again we have to wait a…

> The value is not in the llm but vertical integration and providing value.

The irony being that LLMs are particularly good at writing the web frontend code, lowering the technical barrier to entry for competitors.

Re: It's OpenAI's world, we're just living in it

#207

Post by fishmicrowaver »

ACCount37 wrote: post #172
OtherShrezzing wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I like reading Zitron’s output, but this remark stood out to me as him weighing in on a domain he’s basically clueless about. Spread across 4 years, there’s way more than $1tn in available private capital. Berkshire Hathaway alone has 1/3 of that sitting in a cash pile right now. You don’t have to look at many balance sheets to see that the big tech companies are all also sitting on huge piles of cash. I don’t person…

Isn't that every domain? The dude is a living embodiment of "overconfident and wrong". He picks a side, then cherry picks until he has it all lined up so that his side is Obviously Right and anything else is Obviously Wrong. Then reality happens and he's proven wrong, but he never fucking learns.

He is following a very well worn path of writing histrionically about a bubble and making money off it. Point out the obvious that it's a bubble. Throw out a lot of figures supporting it. Get your emotional hooks in (prey on fears of job loss, hatred of corporate mismanagement/execs etc) and charge a subscription for it. I liked an article or two of his but he's basically meatGPTing The Information with cursing.

Re: It's OpenAI's world, we're just living in it

#208

Post by noir_lord »

bigbuppo wrote: post #188
yibg wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's pretty smart actually. Altman has sort of linked the fate of OpenAI to that of Nvidia, AMD, Oracle, Microsft etc with these huge deals / partnerships. We've seen the impact of these deals on stock prices before even a penny has changed hands. Tracks with his reputation for power play and politics.

That certainly explains why Microsoft is so desperate to force everyone into using their AI whether they want to or not. I'm wondering if the deal will end Microsoft when OpenAI goes belly up.

It’s rapidly ending my deal with Microsoft.

I want windows to play games, for computing I use Linux but they keep foisting shite I don’t want on me just to play games, AI and sodding OneDrive can piss off.

I’ve kept windows around because it was less painful to game on than Linux but Linux is better than ever and windows is getting worse, at some point those lines are gonna cross and for the first time in 30 odd years I’ll not be running a single device with a Microsoft operating system on.

And they deserve it.

Re: It's OpenAI's world, we're just living in it

#209

Post by fragmede »

fishmicrowaver wrote: post #207
ACCount37 wrote: post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't that every domain? The dude is a living embodiment of "overconfident and wrong". He picks a side, then cherry picks until he has it all lined up so that his side is Obviously Right and anything else is Obviously Wrong. Then reality happens and he's proven wrong, but he never fucking learns.

He is following a very well worn path of writing histrionically about a bubble and making money off it. Point out the obvious that it's a bubble. Throw out a lot of figures supporting it. Get your emotional hooks in (prey on fears of job loss, hatred of corporate mismanagement/execs etc) and charge a subscription for it. I liked an article or two of his but he's basically meatGPTing The Information with cursing.

Everyone's got to make a living somehow, I guess.

Re: It's OpenAI's world, we're just living in it

#210

Post by psychoslave »

BeetleB wrote: post #117
yen223 wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A lot of the points also apply to Google as a search engine, yet we're still seeing Google owning about 90% of search engine usage.

Google search requires a lot of resources to crawl, keep indices up to date, and provide user level significance (i.e. different results to different users). Then couple it with their other services (Google Maps, etc). The competitors have not come even close to Google's level of quality. With LLMs, it's different. Gemini/Claude are as good, for the most part. And users don't care that much either - most use the stan…

It's not just the quality. The are people who do complain about how they perceive it significantly decreased over time. Yet there are many other factors, including presence as default search engine in so many setup out there.
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