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OpenAI and Nvidia announce partnership to deploy 10GW of Nvidia systems

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Re: OpenAI and Nvidia announce partnership to deploy 10GW of Nvidia systems

#201

Post by throwaway667555 »

JCM9 wrote: post #108

This is throwing more cards on the house of cards. Nvidia is “investing” in OpenAI so OpenAI can buy GPUs from NVidia. Textbook “round tripping.” I generally like what’s been happening with AI but man this is gonna crash hard when reality sets in. We’re reaching the scary stage of a bubble where folks are forced to throw more and more cash on the fire to keep it going with no clear path to ever get that cash back. If…

It's not round tripping. Economically Nvidia is investing property is OpenAI. It's not investing nothing, far from it.

Re: OpenAI and Nvidia announce partnership to deploy 10GW of Nvidia systems

#202

Post by ddtaylor »

hbarka wrote: post #115
ProofHouse wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How much cable (and what kind) to connect them all? That number would be 100x the number of gpus. I would think they just clip on metal racks no cables but then I saw the xai data center that can blue wire cables everywhere

It was announced last week that Nvidia acquired-hired a company that can connect more than 100,000 GPUs together as a cluster that can effectively serve as a single integrated system.

Do you have a link or info?

Re: OpenAI and Nvidia announce partnership to deploy 10GW of Nvidia systems

#203

Post by jlokier »

onlyrealcuzzo wrote:

> Google is pretty useful. It uses 15 TWh per year.

15TWh per year is about 1.7GW.

Assuming the above figures, that means OpenAI and Nvidia new plan will consume about 5.8 Googles worth of power, by itself.

At that scale, there's a huge opportunity for ultra-low-power AI compute chips (compared with current GPUs), and right now there are several very promising technology pathways to it.

Re: OpenAI and Nvidia announce partnership to deploy 10GW of Nvidia systems

#204

Post by wongarsu »

vessenes wrote: post #177
gehsty wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some more context, Nuclear power stations can be up to 2GW, offshore windfarms are seemingly hitting a plateau at ~1.5GW, individual turbines in operations now are 15MW. Grids are already strained, 525kV DC systems can transmit ~2GW of power per cable bundle… Adding 10GW of offtake to any grid is going to cause significant problems and likely require CAPEX intensive upgrades (try buy 525kV dc cable from an establishe…

Yeah the path forward here is going to be Apple-like vertical supply chain integration. There is absolutely no spare capacity in the infra side of electrical right now, at least in the US.

And there is great cost saving potential in vertical integration. Distribution and transmission are huge costs. If you can build a data center right next to a power plant and just take all their power you get much better prices. Not trivial to do with the kinds of bursty loads that seem typical of AI data centers, but if you can engineer your way to a steady load (or at least steady enough that traditional grid smoothing techniques work) you can get a substantial advantage

Re: OpenAI and Nvidia announce partnership to deploy 10GW of Nvidia systems

#205

Post by Deegy »

aanet wrote: post #132
alephnerd wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep. The Telco Bust 1.0 along with the Dotcom Bust is what enabled the cloud computing boom, the SaaS boom, and the e-commerce boom by the early-mid 2010s. I think the eventual AI bust will lead to the same thing, as the costs for developing a domain-specific model have cratered over the past couple years. AI/ML (and the infra around it) is overvalued at their current multiples, but the value created it real, and as…

Yeah - no doubt on the eventual productivity gains due to AI/ML (which are real, of course, just like the real gains due to telecom infra buildup), but must an economy go through a bubble first to realize these productivity gains?? It appears that the answer is "more likely yes than not". Counting some examples: - self driving / autonomous vehicles (seeing real deployments now with Waymo, but 99% deployment still ahe…

Happened with the electrical grid too.

I think you make a very interesting observation about these bubbles potentially being an inherent part of new technology expansion.

It makes sense too from a human behavior perspective. Whenever there are massive wins to be had, speculation will run rampant. Everyone wants to be the winner, but only a small fraction will actually win.

Re: OpenAI and Nvidia announce partnership to deploy 10GW of Nvidia systems

#206

Post by diimdeep »

bobmcnamara wrote: post #142
jononor wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I do not think the leveraging is going to end there. I suspect this will be used to justify/secure power generation investments, possibly even nuclear. Likely via one or more of the OpenAI/Altman adjacent power startups.

Altman is all in on converting the solar system into a Dyson sphere to power OpenAI.

And it is hilarious [0]

[0] dyson spheres are a joke / Angela Collier https://youtu.be/fLzEX1TPBFM

Re: OpenAI and Nvidia announce partnership to deploy 10GW of Nvidia systems

#207

Post by rlv-dan »

gehsty wrote: post #158
labrador wrote: post #131

For scale: The 1960's era US Navy submarine I served on had a 78MW reactor, so 10GW is 128 nuclear submarines

Some more context, Nuclear power stations can be up to 2GW, offshore windfarms are seemingly hitting a plateau at ~1.5GW, individual turbines in operations now are 15MW. Grids are already strained, 525kV DC systems can transmit ~2GW of power per cable bundle… Adding 10GW of offtake to any grid is going to cause significant problems and likely require CAPEX intensive upgrades (try buy 525kV dc cable from an establishe…

In the long run, perhaps this will give us a better power grid, just like the dotcom bubble gave rise to broadband?

Re: OpenAI and Nvidia announce partnership to deploy 10GW of Nvidia systems

#208

Post by vessenes »

mossTechnician wrote: post #171
vessenes wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Almost every model trained by the majors has paid for itself with inference fees. I’m not saying there isn’t a bubble, but I am saying if the researchers and strategists absolutely closest to the “metal” of realtime frontier models are correct that AGI is in reach, then this isn’t a bubble, it’s a highly rational race. One that large players seem to be winning right now.

Which of these model-making companies have posted a profit? I'm not familiar with any.

They account internally for each model separately; Dario said they even think of each model as a separate company on Dwarkesh some time ago.

Inference services are wildly profitable. Currently companies believe it’s economically sensible to plow that money into R&D / Investment in new models through training.

For reference, oAI’s monthly revs are reportedly between $1b and $2b right now. Monthly. I think if you do a little napkin math you’ll see that they could be cashflow positive any time they wanted to.

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