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US reportedly forcing TSMC to buy 49% stake in Intel to secure tariff relief

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Re: US reportedly forcing TSMC to buy 49% stake in Intel to secure tariff relief

#201

Post by Alupis »

coryrc wrote: post #187
Alupis wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nothing will change in the US if Ukraine falls tomorrow. People love to cry foul when the US flexes it's might... then cry foul when the US takes a back seat... literally cry foul no matter what the US does. If Ukraine is so important to the world order, why has Europe (you know, Ukraine's actual neighbors) not stepped up with their full military power? Why is Europe not threatening troops, missiles, aircraft, tanks,…

> People love to cry foul when the US flexes it's might... then cry foul when the US takes a back seat... literally cry foul no matter what the US does. There's a difference between the US invading Iraq and US aiding a country being invaded.

> US aiding a country being invaded

Why can't the Germans send troops into Ukraine? Or the Brits (for all their grandstanding and bluster)?

Why must it be the US?

If "everyone" thinks Putin isn't going to stop with Ukraine, then it would seem Europe has an existential crisis to deal with - not the US, thousands of miles away...

Re: US reportedly forcing TSMC to buy 49% stake in Intel to secure tariff relief

#202

Post by throwup238 »

phkahler wrote: post #50
throwup238 wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does it really matter? Does TSMC have a choice either way? They’re a globally important company but they’re not ASML and they’re stuck between two superpowers and the threat of potential total war. They’ve had the misfortune of being sucked into geopolitical maelstrom and those tides are far too strong for any company to resist.

>> Does it really matter? Does TSMC have a choice either way? Sure. Go home and make chips. Pass the tarrif costs on to customers. Would US customers have a choice?

EUV was developed with in a Cooperative Research and Development Agreement between the US Department of Energy, Intel, ASML, and so on - giving Congress control over who ASML sells the EUV technology to.

So yes, US companies do have a choice. They can lobby Congress to cut off TSMC from their main hardware and parts supplier entirely, crippling it altogether, except for their Arizona plant which is ripe for nationalization for natsec.

Re: US reportedly forcing TSMC to buy 49% stake in Intel to secure tariff relief

#203

Post by cnst »

ahmeneeroe-v2 wrote: post #164
ezst wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With this administration, it's probably just more blackmail, in the form of "it would be a pity if nobody came to the rescue when China eventually puts its Taiwan plans in motion! (Not that playing ball is a guarantee of anything either)".

This isn't blackmail. A security guarantee has value. Exactly what value is hard to say since the US is the only credible seller of such guarantees in this world order

Whose security are we talking about here, though?

Wouldn't the value of the security guarantee in this scenario be a negative one for Taiwan?

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31012442

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35171512

Re: US reportedly forcing TSMC to buy 49% stake in Intel to secure tariff relief

#204

Post by tw04 »

cherryteastain wrote: post #32

Tariffs kinda make sense when you have a deficit in a widely available item. Big trade deficit with Bangladesh? Sure you can buy cheap textiles from Thailand or Vietnam or something. Unfortunately this approach does not work when you lack a viable domestic alternative and you're up against a monopoly. What will the US do if TSMC does not blink? Not buy TSMC made chips? Obviously that is impossible, so the logical con…

>so the logical conclusion is that American consumers will end up paying the tariffs.

That’s been the point all along… they are significantly raising taxes on the bottom 90% of Americans and most are too stupid to even understand it. Gotta pay for those tax cuts for the wealthy somehow.

Re: US reportedly forcing TSMC to buy 49% stake in Intel to secure tariff relief

#205

Post by seanmcdirmid »

sct202 wrote: post #177
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They want to ensure that TSMC doesn't have a controlling stake.

The remaining 51% would be highly fractured unless it was like the US government on the otherside. One of the publicly traded companies I worked at effectively got taken over with <20% of regular shares by an activist billionaire.

Ya, they would have to make their stake non-voting regardless, then what would be the point? I don't think Trump thought this through.

Re: US reportedly forcing TSMC to buy 49% stake in Intel to secure tariff relief

#206

Post by notahacker »

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #154
notahacker wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well yes, and so does the US. But Europe has certain significant restrictions on trade with China in sensitive areas, and levies its common external tariff on Chinese imports. China would love those restrictions to be removed and to get a broad trade deal. And other countries that consider themselves broadly aligned with the West have considerably less decision-making inertia than the EU

I don't think China would love to get a broad trade deal. Analysts in both Europe and the US generally agree that the Chinese government cultivates unbalanced trade as a matter of policy. (Indeed, one of the things that's supposed to happen as part of the US-EU "trade deal" is joint action on metals to counteract persistent Chinese overcapacity.)

A broad trade deal would be unbalanced in China's favour; they manufacture more and at lower cost. But the US isn't exactly selling the message of being the better partner right now.

Re: US reportedly forcing TSMC to buy 49% stake in Intel to secure tariff relief

#207

Post by nosignono »

tw04 wrote: post #204
cherryteastain wrote: post #32

Tariffs kinda make sense when you have a deficit in a widely available item. Big trade deficit with Bangladesh? Sure you can buy cheap textiles from Thailand or Vietnam or something. Unfortunately this approach does not work when you lack a viable domestic alternative and you're up against a monopoly. What will the US do if TSMC does not blink? Not buy TSMC made chips? Obviously that is impossible, so the logical con…

>so the logical conclusion is that American consumers will end up paying the tariffs. That’s been the point all along… they are significantly raising taxes on the bottom 90% of Americans and most are too stupid to even understand it. Gotta pay for those tax cuts for the wealthy somehow.

It has nothing to do with stupidity. Stop painting people as idiots because they exist in one of the most information hostile environments in human history.

This isn't some natural state that's unrecoverable. The people you describe have been given a highly addictive media environment tailor made to engender outrage and drive behavior. It shouldn't be a shock when most people cannot resist it. The first step to changing it is not writing them off or insulting them for being had.

Re: US reportedly forcing TSMC to buy 49% stake in Intel to secure tariff relief

#208

Post by exasperaited »

Waterluvian wrote: post #180
duxup wrote: post #2

This whole economy by corruption and coercion is not going to work out.

I’m convinced that this is all what it looks like to live through the end of an empire (or whatever term you’d like). I think our lives are short enough that it can be easy to perceive something like America as “always was, always will be” and the rest is just trivia you learn in history class.

> I’m convinced that this is all what it looks like to live through the end of an empire (or whatever term you’d like).

It feels to me like it's more like the beginning of an empire, in the sense of existing under an emperor.

> I think our lives are short enough that it can be easy to perceive something like America as “always was, always will be” and the rest is just trivia you learn in history class.

I think it very interesting that one of the things the USA is going to have to grapple with, in the middle of the most contentious presidency in its history, is the semiquincentennial of independence itself.

The bicentennial of independence in 1976 was I think largely an uncontentious thing even though the Vietnam conflict had ended only a couple of years beforehand and the presidency was in the hands of a guy who had taken over the job from, and pardoned, a crook who was forced to resign. Internationally people were pretty kind and generous to the USA.

I don't think anyone, anywhere on the planet, is prepared diplomatically for how it will play out this time. Next year is going to be a heck of a year.

Re: US reportedly forcing TSMC to buy 49% stake in Intel to secure tariff relief

#209

Post by cyphertruck »

This is like an old fashioned Civilization game trade. Taiwan gets a significant ownership in a blue chip US company, TSMC should then take %51 control over intel, and turn it around. The US gets a stronger position with China such that china attacking Taiwan would be like bombing Apple or Google. The USA will go to war over that.

Only the willingness to go to war, stops aggressors. War is terrible and economic competition is the path to peace, but if you can't defend yourself you will get destroyed.

Re: US reportedly forcing TSMC to buy 49% stake in Intel to secure tariff relief

#210

Post by antonvs »

Waterluvian wrote: post #180
duxup wrote: post #2

This whole economy by corruption and coercion is not going to work out.

I’m convinced that this is all what it looks like to live through the end of an empire (or whatever term you’d like). I think our lives are short enough that it can be easy to perceive something like America as “always was, always will be” and the rest is just trivia you learn in history class.

This could still be turned around, with some luck and effort. But it won't happen if the voters don't get out of frog-being-slowly-boiled mode, clinging to normalcy bias.

So in the end your assessment is probably correct. It's probably going to be a long, slow decline though.

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