Nvidia won, we all lost • Hacker News Board

Re: Nvidia won, we all lost

#201

Post by alganet » Sat, Jul 05, 2025, 2:15 AM UTC

selfhoster11 wrote: post #190

alganet wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

More a sequence of potential events than a timeframe. High-end GPUs are already useless for gaming (a low-end GPU is enough), their traditional source of demand. They're floating on artificial demand for a while now. There are two markets that currently could use them: LLMs and Augmented Reality. Both of these are currently useless, and getting more useless by the day. CPUs are just piggybacking on all of this. So, l…

Local LLMs are becoming more popular and easier to run, and Chinese corporations are releasing extremely good models of all sizes under MIT or similar terms in many cases. There amount of VRAM is the main limiter, and it would help with gaming too.

Gaming needs no additional VRAM.

From a market perspective, LLMs sell GPUs. Doesn't even matter if they work or not.

From the geopolitical tensions perspective, they're the perfect excuse to create infrastructure for a global analogue of the Great Firewall (something that the Chinese are pioneers of, and catching up to the plan).

From the software engineering perspective, LLMs are a nuissance, a distraction. They harm everyone.

Re: Nvidia won, we all lost

#202

Post by imiric » Sat, Jul 05, 2025, 2:17 AM UTC

ThatPlayer wrote: post #104

Retr0id wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, computer graphics has always been "software trickery" all the way down. There are valid points to be made about DLSS being marketed in misleading ways, but I don't think it being "software trickery" is a problem at all.

Exactly. Running games at a lower resolution isn't new. I remember changing the size of the viewport in the original DOOM 1993 to get it to run faster. Making a lower resolution look better without having to run at a higher resolution is the exact same problem anti-aliasing has been tackling forever. DLSS is just another form of AA that is now so advanced, you can go from an even lower resolution and still look good.…

It's one thing to rely on a technique like AA to improve visual quality with negligible drawbacks. DLSS is entirely different though, since upscaling introduces all kinds of graphical issues, and frame generation[1] even more so, while adding considerable input latency. NVIDIA will claim that this is offset by its Reflex feature, but that has its own set of issues.

So, sure, we can say that all of this is ultimately software trickery, but when the trickery is dialed up to 11 and the marketing revolves entirely on it, while the raw performance is only slightly improved over previous generations, it's a clear sign that consumers are being duped.

[1]: I'm also opposed to frame generation from a philosophical standpoint. I want my experience to be as close as possible to what the game creator intended. That is, I want every frame to be generated by the game engine; every object to look as it should within the world, and so on. I don't want my graphics card to create an experience that approximates what the creator intended.

This is akin to reading a book on an e-reader that replaces every other word with one chosen by an algorithm. I want none of that.

Re: Nvidia won, we all lost

#203

Post by arcanus » Sat, Jul 05, 2025, 2:18 AM UTC

voxleone wrote: post #148

It’s reasonable to argue that NVIDIA has a de facto monopoly in the field of GPU-accelerated compute, especially due to CUDA (Compute Unified Device Architecture). While not a legal monopoly in the strict antitrust sense (yet), in practice, NVIDIA's control over the GPU compute ecosystem — particularly in AI, HPC, and increasingly in professional content creation — is extraordinarily dominant.

> NVIDIA's control over the GPU compute ecosystem — particularly in AI, HPC

The two largest supercomputers in the world are powered by AMD. I don't think it's accurate to say Nvidia has monopoly on HPC

Source: https://top500.org/lists/top500/2025/06/

Re: Nvidia won, we all lost

#204

Post by ksec » Sat, Jul 05, 2025, 2:19 AM UTC

benreesman wrote: post #167

axoltl wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you saying Nvidia could spin up their own chip fabs in short order?

If they believed they were going to continue selling AI chips at those margins they would: - outbid Apple on new nodes - sign commitments with TSMC to get the capacity in the pipeline - absolutely own the process nodes they made cards on that are still selling way above retail NVIDIA has been posting net earnings in the 60-90 range over the last few years. If you think that's going to continue? You book the fab capac…

And what if Nvidia booked but the order didn't come. What if Nvidia's customer isn't going to commit? How expensive and how much prepayment is needed for TSMC to break a new Fab?

These are the same question Apple Fans asking Apple to buy TSMC. The fact is isn't so simple. And even if Nvidia were willing to pay for it TSMC wouldn't do it just for Nvidia alone.

Re: Nvidia won, we all lost

#205

Post by cherioo » Sat, Jul 05, 2025, 2:20 AM UTC

Tadpole9181 wrote: post #139

cherioo wrote: post #9

High end GPU has over the last 5 years slowly turning from an enthusiast product into a luxury product. 5 or maybe 10 years ago, high-end GPU are needed to run games at reasonably eye candy setting. In 2025, $500 mid-range GPUs are more than enough. Folks all over can barely tell between High and Ultra settings, DLSS vs FSR, or DLSS FG and Lossless Scaling. There's just no point to compete at $500 price point any mor…

Just going to focus on this one: > DLSS vs FSR, or DLSS FG and Lossless Scaling. I've used all of these (at 4K, 120hz, set to "balanced") since they came out, and I just don't understand how people say this. FSR is a vaseline-like mess to me, it has its own distinct blurriness. Not as bad as naive upscaling, and I'll use it if no DLSS is available and the game doesn't run well, but it's distracting. Lossless is borde…

Maybe I over exaggerated, but I was dumbfounded myself reading people’s reaction to Lossless Scaling https://www.reddit.com/r/LinusTechTips/s/wlaoHl6GAS

Most people either can’t tell the difference, don’t care about the difference, or both. Similar discourse can be found about FSR, frame drop, and frame stutter. I have conceded that most people do not care.

Re: Nvidia won, we all lost

#206

Post by ksec » Sat, Jul 05, 2025, 2:25 AM UTC

piperswe wrote: post #193

cherioo wrote: post #9

High end GPU has over the last 5 years slowly turning from an enthusiast product into a luxury product. 5 or maybe 10 years ago, high-end GPU are needed to run games at reasonably eye candy setting. In 2025, $500 mid-range GPUs are more than enough. Folks all over can barely tell between High and Ultra settings, DLSS vs FSR, or DLSS FG and Lossless Scaling. There's just no point to compete at $500 price point any mor…

10 years ago, $650 would buy you a top-of-the-line gaming GPU (GeForce GTX 980 Ti). Nowadays, $650 might get you a mid-range RX 9070 XT if you miraculously find one near MSRP.

That is $880 dollars in today's term. And 2015 Apple was already shipping a 16nm SoC. The GeForce GTX 980 Ti was still on 28nm. Two generation Node behind.

Re: Nvidia won, we all lost

#207

Post by the__alchemist » Sat, Jul 05, 2025, 2:26 AM UTC

kbolino wrote: post #122

neuroelectron wrote: post #42

Seems a bit calculated and agreed across the industry. What can really make sense of Microsoft's acquisitions and ruining of billion dollar IPs? It's a manufactured collapse of the gaming industry. They want to centralize control of the market and make it a service based (rent seeking) sector. I'm not saying they all got together and decided this together but their wonks are probably all saying the same thing. The ma…

The video game industry has been through cycles like this before. One of them (the 1983 crash) was so bad it killed most American companies and caused the momentum to shift to Japan for a generation. Another one I can recall is the "death" of the RTS (real-time strategy) genre around 2010. They have all followed a fairly similar pattern and in none of them that I know of have things played out as the companies involv…

Thankfully, RTS is healthy again! (To your point about cycles)

Re: Nvidia won, we all lost

#208

Post by conception » Sat, Jul 05, 2025, 2:28 AM UTC

piperswe wrote: post #193

cherioo wrote: post #9

High end GPU has over the last 5 years slowly turning from an enthusiast product into a luxury product. 5 or maybe 10 years ago, high-end GPU are needed to run games at reasonably eye candy setting. In 2025, $500 mid-range GPUs are more than enough. Folks all over can barely tell between High and Ultra settings, DLSS vs FSR, or DLSS FG and Lossless Scaling. There's just no point to compete at $500 price point any mor…

10 years ago, $650 would buy you a top-of-the-line gaming GPU (GeForce GTX 980 Ti). Nowadays, $650 might get you a mid-range RX 9070 XT if you miraculously find one near MSRP.

Keeping with inflation (650 to 880) it’d get you a 5070TI.

Re: Nvidia won, we all lost

#209

Post by ksec » Sat, Jul 05, 2025, 2:28 AM UTC

rubyn00bie wrote: post #166

strictnein wrote: post #105

This really makes no sense: > This in turn sparked rumors about NVIDIA purposefully keeping stock low to make it look like the cards are in high demand to drive prices. And sure enough, on secondary markets, the cards go way above MSRP Nvidia doesn't earn more money when cards are sold above MSRP, but they get almost all the hate for it. Why would they set themselves up for that? Scalpers are a retail wide problem. A…

> Scalpers are a retail wide problem. Acting like Nvidia has the insight or ability to prevent them is just silly. Oh trust me, they can combat it. The easiest way, which is what Nintendo often does for the launch of its consoles, is produce an enormous amount of units before launch. The steady supply to retailers, absolutely destroys folks ability to scalp. Yes a few units will be scalped, but most scalpers will be…

>Oh trust me, they can combat it.

As has been explained by others. They cant. Look at the tech which is used by Switch 2 and then look at the tech by Nvidia 50 series.

And Nintendo didn't destroy scalpers, they are still in many market not meeting demand despite "is produce an enormous amount of units before launch".

Re: Nvidia won, we all lost

#210

Post by georgeecollins » Sat, Jul 05, 2025, 2:28 AM UTC

kbolino wrote: post #152

georgeecollins wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I worked in the video game industry from the 90s through to today. I think you are over generalizing or missing the original point. It's true that there have been boom and busts. But there are also structural changes. Do you remember CD-ROMs? Steam and the iPhone were structural changes. What Microsoft is trying to do with Gamepass is a structural change. It may not work out the way that they plan but the truth is th…

But the thing is that Steam didn't cause the death of physical media. I absolutely do remember PC gaming before Steam, and between the era when it was awesome (StarCraft, Age of Empires, Unreal Tournament, Tribes, etc.) and the modern Steam-powered renaissance, there was an absolutely dismal era of disappointment and decline. Store shelves were getting filled with trash like "40 games on one CD!" and each new console…

I am not saying that about Steam. In fact Steam pretty much saved triple A PC gaming. Your timeline is quite accurate!

>> Microsoft's strategy is going to come to the same result as Embracer Group.

I hope you are right.

If I were trying to make a larger point, I guess it would be that big tech companies (Apple, MSFT, Amazon) don't want content creators to be too important in the ecosystem and tend to support initiatives that emphasize the platform.