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America’s incarceration rate is in decline

theatlantic.com

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Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#201

Post by kragen »

sien wrote: post #166
ericmcer wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is insane to just confidently assert that the only factor in the decrease in crime is Lead. Treating an insanely nuanced issue as an absolute doesn't make your argument more compelling, it is actually kind of baffling.

There was a crime decline in many rich countries from the 1990s as well. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_drop#Decline_since_the_e... Maybe they were doing similar things with lead or something else is a big factor. Perhaps the rise of ever more cheap entertainment for young males who are most likely to commit crime. That's a global thing.

Yes, leaded gasoline was being banned in many rich countries at about the same time, and there's a positive correlation between the year it was banned and the year that violent street crime began to decline.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#202

Post by treyd »

ivanjermakov wrote: post #163
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's lead. Lead concentration in America "rapidly increased in the 1950s and then declined in the 1980s" [1]. There is a non-linear discontinuity among kids born in the mid 80s, with linear improvements through to those born in the late 2000s [2]. Arrest rates for violent crimes are highest from 15 to 29 years old (particularly 17 to 23-year olds) [3]. They're particularly low for adults after 50 years old. We're aro…

Seriously? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation_does_not_imply_c...

I'll do you one better. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lead%E2%80%93crime_hypothesis

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#203

Post by wyre »

yesbut wrote: post #38
casenmgreen wrote: post #25

Freakonomics argued that crime correlates to whether or not abortion is available. If it is not, crime rates are up, and by a lot. If it is, crime rates are down. When you flip from one to the other, takes about 15/20 years for the effect to show up. Rationale is that forcing parents to have their kids when they're not ready for them significantly increases delinquency in young adults. This is apparently the only pos…

That correlation has pretty much been debunked. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legalized_abortion_and_crime...

Dubunked does not mean critiqued.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#204

Post by hellzbellz123 »

BobaFloutist wrote: post #154
ern wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think lead is nasty stuff, but if it was the single cause of high crime, surely we'd see a similar effect in other domains, like a rebound effect on IQs (another thing lead was blamed for)? Instead the Flynn Effect seems to have been strongest during the era of high lead, and it's tailing-off now.

The only reasonable conclusion is that lead causes crime by making people smarter.

or maybe intelligence doesn't correlate with likeliness to commit crime?

plenty of criminals are intelligent.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#205

Post by redwood »

holmesworcester wrote: post #30

How much of this is due to smartphones? The years seem to line up. 2014 seemed like the big year where smartphone ubiquity changed US teen culture. Less boredom, dumb adventure, drinking, etc. (For better or worse but in this case better.)

A big part. But pagers too. The decline of drug "turf" crime when things transitioned to networks of contacts correlated with the decline in violence on the streets which probably only accelerated with smart phones. No longer worth fighting over corners.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#206

Post by WarOnPrivacy »

bluGill wrote: post #55
strict9 wrote: post #12

> Rapidly declining numbers of youth are committing crimes, getting arrested, and being incarcerated. This matters because young offenders are the raw material that feeds the prison system: As one generation ages out, another takes its place on the same horrid journey. Another factor which will soon impact this, if it isn't already, is the rapidly changing nature of youth. Fertility rates have been dropping since 200…

> the act of having a child is much more deliberate and the parents likely having more resources This is both good and bad. Having a child is very difficult, but it gets harder as you get older. You lack a lot of monitory resources as a teen or the early 20s, but you have a lot more energy, as you get older your body starts decaying you will lack energy. A kid had at 40 will still be depending on your when you are 55…

> A kid had at 40 will still be depending on your when you are 55

I had my kids 25-35; all 5 are adults. We live together as is befitting a 4 income economy.

> and if the kids goes to college

Do you mean go away to college? Yeah. No.

> may have some dependency on you when your peers are retiring.

Me and peers are all working grey. End of career happens with first major illness intersects with the lack of health insurance and we die.

> Plus if your kids have kids

If one of my a sons pairs off with someone and they both work, they'll still be 2 typical incomes short of self sustenance.

BUT, if they got married and then married another couple, the 4 of them only have to find one more adult - the one who will parent during the work day. After the last child enters school, the core 4 can kick parent 5 to the curb.

> Do not let fear of how much it will cost

No fear. Just math.

> or desire for more resources first

But if they had more resources they might only need 3 or even 2 adults working full time to afford basic bills.

> Do not let ... it ... stop you from having kids when you are still young enough to do well.

Parents can (and do) parent while living in their car...

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#207

Post by 3eb7988a1663 »

pjdesno wrote: post #108
standardUser wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From what I've read, mostly sentencing reform and less aggressive drug prosecution/more drug diversion. That and the general trend for crime to recede in wealthy, stable societies.

It's not just law enforcement and sentencing - there are verifiable numbers for the results of certain crimes - homicides and auto theft come to mind - and most have declined precipitously. E.g. Boston had 1,575 reports of auto theft in 2012, compared with 28,000 in 1975; Massachusetts had 242 murders in 1975, and 121 in 2012. (a 56% drop in homicide rate, as population went up 14%)

That car theft number is blowing my mind. I would have easily guessed 10x that.

Are there any aspects of the crime that make it less appealing? Electronic counter measures too good? Price of replacement parts no longer carry a premium? Too easy to get caught?

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#208

Post by 3eb7988a1663 »

ToucanLoucan wrote: post #53
rwmj wrote: post #19

The question not even asked by the article is ... why?

The answer is likely unknowable, but I can think of several factors that tie into the plummeting birth rate: - While the Freakanomics citation of widespread access to abortion has been debunked as a sole cause, I think it remains credible for at least a contributing factor. Fewer young people born to folks who are too poor/busy/not wanting to raise them is doubtlessly going to reduce the number of young offenders who…

  ...about putting condoms on cucumbers poisoning children's minds with vegetable-based erotica
The Christians did invent Veggie Tales.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#209

Post by hellzbellz123 »

ern wrote: post #148
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's lead. Lead concentration in America "rapidly increased in the 1950s and then declined in the 1980s" [1]. There is a non-linear discontinuity among kids born in the mid 80s, with linear improvements through to those born in the late 2000s [2]. Arrest rates for violent crimes are highest from 15 to 29 years old (particularly 17 to 23-year olds) [3]. They're particularly low for adults after 50 years old. We're aro…

I think lead is nasty stuff, but if it was the single cause of high crime, surely we'd see a similar effect in other domains, like a rebound effect on IQs (another thing lead was blamed for)? Instead the Flynn Effect seems to have been strongest during the era of high lead, and it's tailing-off now.

below study claims test score variances are mostly related too declarative knowledge side note, i wonder how internet had an effect on iq scores.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S01602...

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#210

Post by 3eb7988a1663 »

permo-w wrote: post #47
deadbabe wrote: post #29

There are many reasons why crime is in decline, but ultimately its economic. Crime used to pay. Your expected return on a crime was pretty good for the risk involved. Nowadays though, because of technology, risk has increased while the returns have also decreased. Barriers to entry for crimes worth committing are now way higher. Robbing a gas station decades ago could yield a nice chunk of cash that could probably pa…

not forgetting that CCTV is absolutely ubiquitous and high def, where previously it was reasonably rare and low quality

I am doubtful widespread recordings are making much of a change. Unless you are Luigi Mangione, are police actually following video footage trying to tie up a crime? Even with a city wide alert, he almost escaped.

It has been a common refrain that someone has an AirTag or other electronic surveillance they used to identify a thief, for which the police do nothing.

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