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Trump's Trade War Escalates as China Retaliates with 34% Tariffs

nytimes.com

201–210 of 220 posts

Re: Trump's Trade War Escalates as China Retaliates with 34% Tariffs

#201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Half of Americans say they live paycheck to paycheck, so no - the majority of households will not be able to survive for long if they have to spend an extra few thousand to stay where they are today. Those that can will be cutting spending, which will ripple across the rest of the economy. There's no sign that negotiation is even possible, never mind likely. One tell is that tariffs have been applied to the Heard and…

> the majority of households will not be able to survive for long if they have to spend an extra few thousand to stay where they are today. The median American household has an income of around $78,000 [0]. They can survive the blowback. The Trump admin on the other hand will not. As a Sullivan, Raimondo, and IRA supporting Dem, it's a win-win for me. Harsher policies against China have been enacted which will not be…

> The median American household has an income of around $78,000

What are the expenses of the median American household?

Re: Trump's Trade War Escalates as China Retaliates with 34% Tariffs

#202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, Chinese don’t have proper elections so there, I don't know. But you can be sure that in the USA, this will all stop in 2 years with the midterms, and be reversed in 4 with the presidential elections. No one other than Trump’s fan base likes this even now, imagine in a few months when people start feeling the terrible repercussions.

How can you even remotely be sure of that given the results of the 2016 and 2024 elections?

> How can you even remotely be sure of that given the results of the 2016 and 2024 elections?

No one can be sure of anything, but the specific years you picked happen to have possibly two of the least electable candidates on the ballot.

Biden was not even a particularly good candidate in 2020, but he was able to win. I think that’s indicative of how low the bar is.

Re: Trump's Trade War Escalates as China Retaliates with 34% Tariffs

#203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can the rest of the world just absorb the ridiculously high levels of consumption of the US market?

The less they're able to, the lower prices will be.

What happens to the majority of the industries with little profit margins?

Re: Trump's Trade War Escalates as China Retaliates with 34% Tariffs

#205
post #198
post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure the 'true value' is that important for trade. Taking the example of antibiotics, they may be worth 1000x the cost of production but if country A stops selling them you can just make them in country B. We got by fine without Chinese exports until they started becoming a thing from around 1990 on.

Long-term -- yes; short and medium-term -- not necessarily. For example, during and after Covid, Germany had a very severe antibiotics shortage. I think it is still ongoing to some extent. On one hand, it seems ridiculous to suggest that Germany is incapable of producing all the antibiotics it needs. On the other hand, ramping up production that has been offshored is not that easy, and is a lot more expensive initial…

> On the other hand, ramping up production that has been offshored is not that easy, and is a lot more expensive initially.

It depends on the nature of that particular good's production.

Some industries are incredibly supply-chain and labor-intensive.

Others are capital-intensive.

Others may be knowledge-intensive.

A country should seek to compete in industries it has the most core competencies in.

Re: Trump's Trade War Escalates as China Retaliates with 34% Tariffs

#206

Wonder whether Americans or the Chinese can weather tough times better. Chinese don’t get to protest or voice dissent and Americans can’t be bothered to

Chinese people would understand that tough times are because Americans elected an idiot. Americans would understand that tough times are because their fellow Americans elected an idiot. It will be a crisis for both countries, but it will unite one and divide another. I think everyone will lose but America is likely to lose harder, bigly even.

> Chinese people would understand that tough times are because Americans elected an idiot.

Traditionally, countries get pretty unhappy with their own leadership when the economy gets bad...

There's not a lot of room for nuanced political attribution at population scale.

Re: Trump's Trade War Escalates as China Retaliates with 34% Tariffs

#207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Manufacturing isn't returning to the US due to these tariffs. Just like before the tariffs, the US is still too expensive. On the other hand, it has killed cost-competitiveness for Chinese exports directly from China or via transshipment from Vietnam. The tariff regime has now made Latin America (Brazil, Colombia), Turkiye, Philippines, parts of the EU (Poland, Czechia, Romania), and India cost competitive. And NAFTA…

> Manufacturing isn't returning to the US due to these tariffs. Even if it did, is it even desirable? Countries that actually tried to keep manufacturing beyond its usefulness typically punch beneath their weight, such as the case of Germany. The US lost manufacturing because it was heavily automated and those jobs don't pay really well. They are great for poor countries, because working in a factory sweatshop is bet…

Germany is the largest industrial power after the US and China. What on earth do you mean "punching below its weight"?

Re: Trump's Trade War Escalates as China Retaliates with 34% Tariffs

#208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trump himself, out of his own mouth, with his own tongue, using the air from the breathe inside his lungs, has literally and explicitly with no ambiguities said on multiple occasions that he wants to violate the constitution and have a third term. Republican leaders are humoring the idea.

You mentioned there are multiple occasions: You got a quote on that? I did a quick Google search, but the most recent events are hogging up the results and I didn't hear anything literal about him saying what you claim he was saying. If you're referring to the most recent question asked by a reporter, what you're saying is false -- there was nothing literal or explicit about it. The specific text in the 22nd Amendmen…

It wasn't up for debate with the last 12 presidents...

Re: Trump's Trade War Escalates as China Retaliates with 34% Tariffs

#209
post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trump himself, out of his own mouth, with his own tongue, using the air from the breathe inside his lungs, has literally and explicitly with no ambiguities said on multiple occasions that he wants to violate the constitution and have a third term. Republican leaders are humoring the idea.

And many people seem to have collective amnesia about the January 6 Capitol riots, the Trump-Raffensperger phone call, the fake electors plot, etc. Trump has shown us many times who he is, and yet somehow many conservatives still refuse to believe the evidence that is right in front of their eyes.

It's not that conservatives don't believe -- it's that they don't care.

Winning > rule of law

Which I blame solely on conservative talk radio's lack of morals, and inspiring the same in their listenership.

Re: Trump's Trade War Escalates as China Retaliates with 34% Tariffs

#210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're already talking about how he can have a third term, 22nd amendment be damned.

The recent Civil War movie had the president serving a 3rd term leading to 19 states seceding. How would the blue states respond to Trump ignoring the 22nd amendment?

As a general rule, with some exceptions of course, Democrat politicians tend to "roll over and take it". If the Supreme Court rules that Trump is the president from 2028-2032, expect blue state leaders to just go "oh ok" and then accept that he is the president.

You can contrast it with what red states would do if Obama had a third term.

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