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TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

wsj.com

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Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#201

Post by zmgsabst »

aurareturn wrote: post #193
wordofx wrote: post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> China wants to retake Taiwan Take. They can’t “retake” something they never had.

The island of Taiwan belonged to China at some point. No political statement needed and no need to rewrite history on HN comments. Historically, Taiwan was governed by Chinese administrations for a significant period. In 1683, after defeating the Ming loyalists in Taiwan, the Qing dynasty extended its rule over the island, eventually incorporating it as part of its empire. By 1887, Taiwan was officially designated a…

Taiwan is under the administration of the government which ruled China then — and has continued to rule Taiwan since before the revolution led by the CCP. That’s why their official name is the “Republic of China”.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_China_(1912%E2%80%...

The CCP never controlled Taiwan: it remained independent and under the previous regime. So the CCP would need to take Taiwan as their regime never controlled it.

You’re the one rewriting history.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#202

Post by dataflow »

tyre wrote: post #136
yo_yo_yo-yo wrote: post #121

I cannot even begin to imagine what madness has infected the Taiwanese government to allow this. I feel so sorry for a great, entrepreneurial people. US tariffs will not matter when you are blockaded and Chester Nimitz is very much dead. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43123628

“Our continued protection of you is contingent on your investment in us”. Taiwan is hugely reliant on US defense guarantees. The US has a protectionist president who likes big numbers in announcements and a base riled up about American production capacity. Long-term this is bad for Taiwan since it reduces its leverage with the US in administrations with short-term geopolitics (or no real geopolitical talent.) In the…

> Taiwan is hugely reliant on US defense guarantees.

What I don't get is, in what universe is any US president going to engage militarily against China across the ocean, let alone the current one? The US population does not seem ecstatic to enter something that could turn into WWIII, which makes me feel that even a president in favor of this would quickly fail to do anything.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#203

Post by re-thc »

yo_yo_yo-yo wrote: post #170
ethbr1 wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They only need to make this appear real for 4, maybe 2 years, and can then reevaluate. I'd guess they looked at their options and decided this was the best hedge.

Now that I’ve calmed down a bit, I agree with your assessment. The optics game is so important, but Taiwan is in an impossible situation. If I were China, I would give them relative economic independence if they limit advanced process silicon to other countries and let Huawei and others monopolize the advanced nodes. The US at present does not appear to be a dependable partner.

> If I were China

I wonder if China actually benefits from this drama and rather not claim Taiwan (despite what they say out loud).

It's currently:

- the best place to show military might (the "drills")

- the best place to continue a proxy war with the US / EU

- replaces Hong Kong as the gray area to do business

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#204

Post by aurareturn »

zmgsabst wrote: post #192
Stephen_0xFF wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not so much the people or the land, but rather what they can build. It’s the whole essence of the article. Not sure how far behind the West would fall if TSMC was controlled by the CCP. 5 years? 10?

We’d blow up the fabs ourselves. But it’s in Taiwans interest for us to continue to provide them arms, training, and build regional alliances to pressure China. I’m also not as convinced the US wouldn’t respond, but it would depend on South Korea, Japan, the Philippines, and ASEAN nations to call for such action — if they felt threatened enough by China’s actions in taking Taiwan and Philippine islands to declare war…

  We’d blow up the fabs ourselves.
Nah. You're not thinking this through. That'd start WW3. China considers Taiwan as a province of theirs. Bombing anything in Taiwan by the US would be the same as bombing China itself to the Chinese government. If the US bombs China, expect China to declare war on the US. Have fun getting drafted in the military.

Not to mention it's the quickest way for Taiwanese people to completely turn on the US.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#205

Post by bavell »

Stephen_0xFF wrote: post #183
xuki wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US will NOT engage in a hot war against China for Taiwan, that's for certain, regardless of who is president at that time. Why would they risk nuclear war for a bunch of people who are really far away from the US continent?

It’s not so much the people or the land, but rather what they can build. It’s the whole essence of the article. Not sure how far behind the West would fall if TSMC was controlled by the CCP. 5 years? 10?

Unless a series of unfortunate accidents occur at the TSMC fabs long before China can put them to use...

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#206

Post by wodenokoto »

yo_yo_yo-yo wrote: post #121

I cannot even begin to imagine what madness has infected the Taiwanese government to allow this. I feel so sorry for a great, entrepreneurial people. US tariffs will not matter when you are blockaded and Chester Nimitz is very much dead. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43123628

Maybe the Taiwanese scorched factory policy could include overseas plants.

Let’s not forget that Taiwan has a lot of production in China. Foxconn is taiwanese.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#207

Post by re-thc »

yo_yo_yo-yo wrote: post #121

I cannot even begin to imagine what madness has infected the Taiwanese government to allow this. I feel so sorry for a great, entrepreneurial people. US tariffs will not matter when you are blockaded and Chester Nimitz is very much dead. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43123628

> I cannot even begin to imagine what madness has infected the Taiwanese government to allow this.

It's jumping to conclusion. There aren't even any details in the announcement. It could be old / "mature" tech or a list of other things. The latest nodes likely will still stay in Taiwan.

> US tariffs will not matter when you are blockaded and Chester Nimitz is very much dead.

The alternative was a pressure to buy / save Intel. Much worse.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#208

Post by ein0p »

pj_mukh wrote: post #160
tyre wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“Our continued protection of you is contingent on your investment in us”. Taiwan is hugely reliant on US defense guarantees. The US has a protectionist president who likes big numbers in announcements and a base riled up about American production capacity. Long-term this is bad for Taiwan since it reduces its leverage with the US in administrations with short-term geopolitics (or no real geopolitical talent.) In the…

Curious why Taiwan would sign onto this, knowing how Ukraine is being treated vis a vis mineral rights. I realize Taiwan doesn't have any other options, but a "verbal offer" of future security guarantees from the Trump Admin aren't worth anything.

I don't think there are any multi-trillion dollar deposits of any "minerals" there. If there were, Ukraine wouldn't be so poor. Even pre-war it was the poorest country in Europe per capita. One can argue that it was mostly due to their insane levels of corruption, but then again, if there were any multi-trillion dollar deposits of anything there, Western investors (including Hunter Biden, no doubt) would be all over them, and the country would be much richer than it was.

I think the whole "minerals" thing is a play. Trump gives Zelensky the "deal" he cannot accept even theoretically. Zelensky predictably plays the tough guy by telling him to pound sand. Trump throws Zelensky under the bus and negotiates repayment of loans with his (now scared) successor.

With respect to Taiwan, it is not really possible to "win" in any real sense against China in Taiwan. Anyone who thinks otherwise is a dimwit who can't even do cursory research on industrial capacities of the potential belligerents, not in terms of dollars, but in terms of units/tons/etc. That is where the comparison is very strongly not in our favor. Especially when it comes to shipbuilding.

Best case if things kick off (which I hope to god they do not) - only Taiwan gets destroyed, a-la Ukraine. Worst case - both US and China really go at it directly, full bore, and then we will lose due primarily to our weak industrial base, and far more extended logistics. Moreover, a lot of other countries will totally provide "lethal aid" and intelligence to China, if it needs it, in hopes of taking the hegemon down a few pegs. Nothing personal - just business, such alliances happen in every major war. The extreme case one of the sides feels they're gonna lose and presses the red button, in which case everyone dies in a fire.

All of these options are objectively extremely shitty and incompatible with prosperity, and in the extreme case, with survival. All of them mean millions of body bags for the parties involved, far more body bags than either country has ever seen.

Both Biden and Trump administrations understood this, hence the strong-arming the re-industrialization, especially in higher end fields, which started under Biden. The era where you could just get your stuff made elsewhere for pennies and then charge $$$ for it is coming to an end.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#209

Post by icegreentea2 »

linotype wrote: post #177
icegreentea2 wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What type of help are you expecting?

I don’t know, just seems sad that allies are so fairweather.

I mean, I think you can at least understand why directly interfering with the domestic politics of a representative democracy might be challenging.

And the Europeans are helping. Trump is not getting the straight forward quick foreign policy wins that he was chasing. Europe is going to keep sticking their "European peacekeeper" (however you want to characterize it) proposal into the Ukraine mix, and Putin is going to have a hard time swallowing that deal.

When the EU tariffs come, you can bet that EU is going to try to make it sting as much as possible.

But ultimately it's up to Americans to make the best of these opportunities.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#210

Post by FpUser »

wordofx wrote: post #185
FpUser wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe TSMC has big influence over Taiwan's government or just outright owns key politicians under the table. When / if TSMC secures that all lifecycle for advanced large scale chip manufacturing is in the US, Taiwan might find themselves in very iffy waters.

Taiwan government is the biggest shareholder of TSMC…

Does not exclude my point of view. If things go sour they most likely be on the first plane to the US.
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