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Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

cneos.jpl.nasa.gov

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Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

#201

Post by [deleted] »

FredPret wrote: post #151
neilv wrote: post #149

Maybe it will start climbing in probability, giving us a chance to reflect, and to improve our ways. Since, if we're already doing Nazi salutes at a US Presidential inauguration, less than 100 years after we'd learned that Nazis are pure evil, then I'd understand if some higher power was ready to hit the reset button. Maybe tardigrades would evolve better. (ProTip: Be sure to send a second asteroid, to Mars, ahead of…

You just Godwin'ed the crap out of this thing. Congratulations, I guess. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Godwin%27s_law#:~:text=Godwin'...

[deleted]

Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

#202

Post by fnordlord »

me-vs-cat wrote: post #195
ddahlen wrote: post #84

I work on the Near Earth Object Surveyor space telescope (NEO Surveyor) writing simulation code which predicts which objects we will see. This one has drummed up a bit of interest due to its (relatively) high chance of impact. I actually spent quite a bit of time yesterday digging through archive images trying trying to see if it was spotted on some previous times it came by the Earth (no luck unfortunately). Since w…

> if it misses the Earth in 2032, it could hit the moon. Oh, that's not so ba--- Wait, isn't that what happens in Seveneves?

I think that was supposed to be some kind of small black hole passing through the solar system or something more exotic. Maybe I'm misremembering. Great book though and still haunts me sometimes when staring up at the night sky:)

Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

#203

Post by intrasight »

fnordlord wrote: post #202
me-vs-cat wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> if it misses the Earth in 2032, it could hit the moon. Oh, that's not so ba--- Wait, isn't that what happens in Seveneves?

I think that was supposed to be some kind of small black hole passing through the solar system or something more exotic. Maybe I'm misremembering. Great book though and still haunts me sometimes when staring up at the night sky:)

I had also interpreted it as a small solo black hole. Which it itself a scary concept.

Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

#204

Post by dreamcompiler »

me-vs-cat wrote: post #195
ddahlen wrote: post #84

I work on the Near Earth Object Surveyor space telescope (NEO Surveyor) writing simulation code which predicts which objects we will see. This one has drummed up a bit of interest due to its (relatively) high chance of impact. I actually spent quite a bit of time yesterday digging through archive images trying trying to see if it was spotted on some previous times it came by the Earth (no luck unfortunately). Since w…

> if it misses the Earth in 2032, it could hit the moon. Oh, that's not so ba--- Wait, isn't that what happens in Seveneves?

An 8 MT impact on the Moon is what the Moon calls "Tuesday." It has dealt with far, far worse.

The impact probably wouldn't even be visible with the naked eye unless it hits a part of the Moon not then illuminated by the Sun -- in which case one might see a brief flash of light.

Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

#206

Post by maushu »

dylan604 wrote: post #192
School-Cotton wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A lot of people do evacuate hurricane zones, even when death and destruction are not absolutely guaranteed. If we knew with certainty that a particular place was going to be hit by an asteroid, and we had time to evacuate, I am confident most people would do so.

The accuracy issue is the thing. I’d venture a guess that our prediction of the path of a hurricane 7 days out is more accurate than predicting where an impact will be.

It's actually the opposite. Calculating an asteroid impact is much easier because it primarily involves basic Newtonian physics. In contrast, the climate is a chaotic system, making long-term predictions far more complex.

Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

#207

Post by mikeyouse »

dreamcompiler wrote: post #204
me-vs-cat wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> if it misses the Earth in 2032, it could hit the moon. Oh, that's not so ba--- Wait, isn't that what happens in Seveneves?

An 8 MT impact on the Moon is what the Moon calls "Tuesday." It has dealt with far, far worse. The impact probably wouldn't even be visible with the naked eye unless it hits a part of the Moon not then illuminated by the Sun -- in which case one might see a brief flash of light.

Because I was curious and had no idea about the relative size of meteors that hit the moon, the one that hit the moon in 2013 and was captured by Spanish astronomers was traveling at 65k KPH and weighed about 400kg. That had an impact energy of 15 tons of TNT (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=perqv4qByaI&t=1s)

Safe to say, an 8 megaton impact from one that weighs 220,000,000kg would be a bit more substantial! Apparently that would be roughly the size of the Meteor Crater in Arizona (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meteor_Crater).

Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

#208

Post by userbinator »

neilv wrote: post #149

Maybe it will start climbing in probability, giving us a chance to reflect, and to improve our ways. Since, if we're already doing Nazi salutes at a US Presidential inauguration, less than 100 years after we'd learned that Nazis are pure evil, then I'd understand if some higher power was ready to hit the reset button. Maybe tardigrades would evolve better. (ProTip: Be sure to send a second asteroid, to Mars, ahead of…

Alternatively, perfect timing for a "US saves the world" moment.

Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

#209

Post by graycat »

NooneAtAll3 wrote: post #107
graycat wrote: post #103

Is that probability of an impact 1% or 1 = 100%????

it says 1% in the title, what's there to misunderstand?

1% is tiny, really small.

In my experience, commonly orbits in the solar system are astoundingly accurate over centuries. This prediction is relatively soon, 2032.

So, we have (A) a crude orbit and only 1% prediction of hitting Earth or (B) an accurate prediction of 100% = 1. Between these two, (A) seemed too small and (B) too large. So, I asked.

This question seemed appropriate enough.

Reading the paper, sure, they have a lot of predictions for several decades to come with all the probabilities close to 1% and far from 100%. The paper gives some details on the difficulty of getting a very accurate orbit for the object. So, apparently the 1% is what they have in mind and their title, accurate.

So, if it hits, what might be the damage?

And it it does hit, what would be the probability of it hitting a densely populated area instead of ocean, desert, mountains, ...? Net, with the 1%, the risk of major damage seems quite small.

Hmm, what would the insurance industry think? Vegas?

Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

#210

Post by pclmulqdq »

SR2Z wrote: post #191
mmooss wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> My guess is that small objects like this suffer greatly from the 3-body problem What bodies? My impression is that the only objects around Earth with enough gravity to significantly impact trajectories are the Earth and Moon. Will the other small objects have any significant gravitational impact on this body? I also understand that in cislunar space, the Earth-Moon dynamic does create a three-body problem and traje…

Clicking the link, I found this visualization of the approximate orbit: https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/tools/sbdb_lookup.html#/?sstr=2024%... This orbit is around the sun (as asteroids tend to) and the apoapsis is closer to Jupiter's orbit than Mars.

Also, the gravity of asteroids or small planetary bodies like moons that it passes close to will have some small effects that can add up over a long time period.
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