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I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

hindenburgresearch.com

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Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#201

Post by lazide »

xenihn wrote: post #199
chii wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 1 is a 10x winner out of 10 stocks, 1 being a 10x winner is an absolutely rarity and the fact that you would manage to pick it is pure luck tbh.

I've done it repeatedly over the past ten years while DCA'ing. I basically made my own custom funds with 5-10 stocks, set daily purchases for a specific amount, and didn't think about it. Unfortunately I didn't invest enough each time for the amount to be significant, and I also stopped DCA'ing as soon as I couldn't resist checking, saw that I had reached or was approaching a 10% loss in my overall DCA portfolio, and…

Well, also the market has done almost nothing but go up over the last 10 years, correct?

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#202

Post by Animats »

ylee wrote: post #170
Animats wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Um, yes. Starting next week, it's open season on suckers. It's going to be like the glory days of the Tel Aviv binary options scammers, who at one time were 40% of the Israeli finance sector and had good political connections.[1] Crypto deregulation is coming. No more CFPB enforcement! No more SEC enforcement! There are still people who haven't lost money in crypto yet who can be targeted. They're all little people.…

>It's going to be like the glory days of the Tel Aviv binary options scammers, who at one time were 40% of the Israeli finance sector and had good political connections. When I started at Goldman Sachs 25 years ago, I was told early on of an "Israeli discount" and "Canadian discount"; that is, investors were more skeptical of companies based in those countries. I was not told of any more details than that at the time…

Right, that's about when Netanyahu first took over. The Netanyahu era hasn't been good for Israel, but it's been great for Netanyahu's cronies.

In the US, south Florida seems to be the scam capital.

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#203

Post by ganeshkrishnan »

whatshisface wrote: post #132
_yb2s wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Which also means being careful of short selling. There are a number of businesses I know are badly run and will eventually fail, but I cannot find a way to monetize that safely without knowing the timeline for failure.

If you are the only person who thinks that it might fail, one cent put options will be free and you can buy them until the price hits zero, and then you can make a cent. For example, the opportunity to sell $TSLA for $180 in one month costs about thirty cents right now. Keeping this up for ten years would cost $36.

It doesn't work like this. The stock might fall around $10-$20 every month in the worst case scenario. In which case the premium of $180 will keep rising every week, 90% of which will expire worthless.

You have to buy really farther out or really far off strike both of which have nearly zero probability ( delta is nearly zero and less than 1)

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#204

Post by tenuousemphasis »

silisili wrote: post #189
WalterBright wrote: post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The IRS disallows wash sale deductions if you reinvest in a substantially similar investment within 30 days. I'm not an IRS agent and have no idea what they mean by substantially similar. You might want to talk to your tax accountant.

> substantially similar investment They actually use the word 'identical' instead of 'similar', if that matters. It seems to be a grey area with ETFs, and I'm not a financial advisor, so won't make any further claims. > You might want to talk to your tax accountant. Absolutely agreed. You can also just let a reputable robo do it for you if you don't have the time or energy for it, there are multiple. It is what I end…

Robo advisors are intricately familiar with tax law? That's new to me.

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#205

Post by Scoundreller »

tombert wrote: post #186
WalterBright wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I've ironically lost more money the more closely I've paid attention to my investments Money Magazine a few years ago compared various investment strategies in stocks. The #2 best performing one was investing in the S&P 500. The #1 best performing strategy was the "dead man strategy". The dead man strategy comes into play when the investor dies, and his estate gets frozen until it winds its way through the courts.…

This doesn’t surprise me in the slightest. Most of my investing is just in passive S&P index funds, but I do occasionally buy individual shares. Sometimes I make decent money, sometimes I lose money…turns out I consistently do worse than the S&P long term. I treat buying individual shares as yuppie gambling at this point. It can be fun, but it’s usually a bad strategy.

> I treat buying individual shares as yuppie gambling at this point. It can be fun, but it’s usually a bad strategy.

Naw, that's boomer gambling.

Options are yuppie gambling.

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#206

Post by Scoundreller »

tenuousemphasis wrote: post #204
silisili wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> substantially similar investment They actually use the word 'identical' instead of 'similar', if that matters. It seems to be a grey area with ETFs, and I'm not a financial advisor, so won't make any further claims. > You might want to talk to your tax accountant. Absolutely agreed. You can also just let a reputable robo do it for you if you don't have the time or energy for it, there are multiple. It is what I end…

Robo advisors are intricately familiar with tax law? That's new to me.

US lets you claim $3k of capital losses each against income, so a robo advisor can optimize for this

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#208

Post by kopirgan »

Everything had its positive and negative side. Hindenburg sure made some bold calls that led to unraveling some frauds & Ponzi. But they're also in it for money.

No point applying a moral coat of paint. He took on listed Adani in India but I respect those that take on mining mafia & exploiters of slave labour where there's no pot of gold if you win & end up dead in ditch if you don't.

It was easy target to pick - Soros had openly painted a target on his back and his entire ecosystem was working overtime. Reasons purely political - his perceived closeness to Modi who is hated more than Orban + Trump put together by the ecosystem.

It was laughable anyway as Adani was very rich even before Modi was known outside his own state. And that was exactly like all other tycoons in Asia - greasing palms that needed it. These businessmen know who's in power, who's likely to & who's there to stay.

Yeah wish him good health to enjoy his wealth. And let us enjoy the collateral damage caused to "frauds" he thought lucrative enough to pick.

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#209

Post by bboygravity »

gmd63 wrote: post #59

I've ironically lost more money the more closely I've paid attention to my investments because I was naively confident in the market's ability (or as I've come to suspect, willingness) to react to evidence of fraud. The amount of deceit put out into the world and gobbled up, on purpose, in business is obscene and seriously depressing. The magnitude of damage to psyches and thus economies that anyone acting in a fraud…

Here I was thinking Hindenberg was part of the problem and you seem to think the opposite?

To me they seemed like partners of shorting hedge funds (similar to CNBC) who just spit out bs articles so their hedgie friends can trade on it.

DOJ seems to agree with me?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergeiklebnikov/2022/02/16/doj-...

There are more and better sources.

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#210

Post by Galanwe »

kqr wrote: post #193
WalterBright wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I've ironically lost more money the more closely I've paid attention to my investments Money Magazine a few years ago compared various investment strategies in stocks. The #2 best performing one was investing in the S&P 500. The #1 best performing strategy was the "dead man strategy". The dead man strategy comes into play when the investor dies, and his estate gets frozen until it winds its way through the courts.…

A few years ago cost structures for managing one's investment portfolios were also significantly higher than today! There's an even better alternative for someone willing to put in the leg work: (1) Figure out your investment horizon. For many people, this is way shorter than suggested by generic advice, which makes some diversification beyond "stonks go up" meaningful. (2) Figure out what costs you'll incur by rebal…

Agree with you 100%, I did the same simulations and found the same result.

I would suggest a step beyond though, because rebalancing your portfolio is fun year 1-5, but not so fun year 5-20: have a look at e.g. Vanguard retirement target funds.

Essentially, it's an ETF with a rebalancing rule included for a specific target date. For instance if you buy the target 2050 (your hypothetical retirement age), the ETF rebalances itself between bonds/monetary fund/stocks until it reaches that date, u til it's pretty much all cash in 2050.

Lowest hassle diversified retirement scheme I found.

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