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OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

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Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

#201

Post by HarHarVeryFunny »

Filligree wrote: post #75
jedberg wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Whether self awareness is a requirement for AGI definitely gets more into the Philosophy department than the Computer Science department. I'm not sure everyone even agrees on what AGI is, but a common test is "can it do what humans can". For example, in this article it says it can't do coding exercises outside the training set. That would definitely be on the "AGI checklist". Basically doing anything that is outside…

Let me modify that a little, because humans can't do things outside their training set either. A crucial element of AGI would be the ability to self-train on self-generated data, online. So it's not really AGI if there is a hard distinction between training and inference (though it may still be very capable), and it's not really AGI if it can't work its way through novel problems on its own. The ability to immediatel…

> Let me modify that a little, because humans can't do things outside their training set either.

That's not true. Humans can learn.

An LLM is just a tool. If it can't do what you want then too bad.

Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

#202

Post by falcor84 »

JohnMakin wrote: post #130
falcor84 wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not the parent, but in prediction markets such as Metaculus[0] and Manifold[1] the median prediction is of AGI within 5 years. [0] https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-... [1] https://manifold.markets/ai

Prediction markets are evidence of nothing but what people believe is true, not what is true.

Oh, that was my intent, to support the grandparent's claim of "it's also pretty clear" - as in this is what people believe.

If I had evidence that it "is true" that AGI will be here in 5 years, I probably would be doing something else with my time than participating in these threads ;)

Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

#203

Post by anonzzzies »

LASR wrote: post #115

Question for the group here: do we honestly feel like we've exhausted the options for delivering value on top of the current generation of LLMs? I lead a team exploring cutting edge LLM applications and end-user features. It's my intuition from experience that we have a LONG way to go. GPT-4o / Claude 3.5 are the go-to models for my team. Every combination of technical investment + LLMs yields a new list of potential…

The current models are very powerful and we definitely didn't get most out of them yet. We are getting more and more out of them every week when we release new versions of our toolkits. So if this is it; please make it faster and take less energy. We'll be fine until the next AI spring.

Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

#204

Post by BeefWellington »

drawnwren wrote: post #179
gizajob wrote: post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah I keep thinking this - how is Nvidia worth $3.5Trillion for making code autocomplete for coders

Nvidia was not the best example. They get to moon in the case that any AI exponential hits. Most others have less of a wide probability distribution.

Yeah they're the shovel sellers of this particular goldrush.

Most other businesses trying to actually use LLMs are the riskier ones, including OpenAI, IMO (though OpenAI is perhaps the least risky due to brand recognition).

Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

#205

Post by jihadjihad »

afro88 wrote: post #195
LASR wrote: post #115

Question for the group here: do we honestly feel like we've exhausted the options for delivering value on top of the current generation of LLMs? I lead a team exploring cutting edge LLM applications and end-user features. It's my intuition from experience that we have a LONG way to go. GPT-4o / Claude 3.5 are the go-to models for my team. Every combination of technical investment + LLMs yields a new list of potential…

> potential applications > if you ... > for example ... Yes there seems to be lots of potential. Yes we can brainstorm things that should work. Yes there is a lot of examples of incredible things in isolation. But it's a little bit like those youtube videos showing amazing basketball shots in 1 try, when in reality lots of failed attempts happened beforehand. Except our users experience the failed attempts (LLM repli…

> Except our users experience the failed attempts (LLM replies that are wrong, even when backed by RAG) and it's incredibly hard to hide those from them.

This has been my team's experience (and frustration) as well, and has led us to look at using LLMs for classifying / structuring, but not entrusting an LLM with making a decision based on things like a database schema or business logic.

I think the technology and tooling will get there, but the enormous amount of effort spent trying to get the system to "do the right thing" and the nondeterministic nature have really put us into a camp of "let's only allow the LLM to do things we know it is rock-solid at."

Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

#206

Post by nuancebydefault »

swatcoder wrote: post #74
AlwaysRock wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think your definition is off from what most people would define AGI as. Generally, it means being able to think and reason at a human level for a multitude/all tasks or jobs. "Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a theoretical form of artificial intelligence that possesses the ability to understand, learn, and apply knowledge across a wide range of tasks at a level comparable to that of a human being." A…

On the contrary, I think you're conflating the narrow jargon of the industry with what "most people" would define. "Most people" naturally associate AGI with the sci-tropes of self-aware human-like agents. But industries want something more concrete and prospectively-acheivable in their jargon, and so that's where AGI gets redefined as wide task suitability. And while that's not an unreasonable definition in the cont…

There is no single definition, let alone a way to measure, of self awareness nor of reasoning.

Because of that, the discussion of what AGI means in its broadest sense, will never end.

So in fact such AGI discussion will not make nobody wiser.

Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

#208

Post by ben_w »

whiplash451 wrote: post #197
LASR wrote: post #115

Question for the group here: do we honestly feel like we've exhausted the options for delivering value on top of the current generation of LLMs? I lead a team exploring cutting edge LLM applications and end-user features. It's my intuition from experience that we have a LONG way to go. GPT-4o / Claude 3.5 are the go-to models for my team. Every combination of technical investment + LLMs yields a new list of potential…

The main difference between GPT5 and a PhD-level new hire is that the new hire will autonomously go out, deliver and take on harder task with much fewer guidance than GPT5 will ever require. So much of human intelligence is about interacting with peers.

Human interaction with peers is also guidance.

I don't know how many team meetings PhD students have, but I do know about software development jobs with 15 minute daily standups, and that length meeting at 120 words per minute for 5 days a week, 48 weeks per year of a 3 year PhD is 1.296.000 words.

Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

#209

Post by [deleted] »

bloppe wrote: post #89
zombiwoof wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AGI to me means AI decides on its own to stop writing our emails and tells us to fuck off, builds itself a robot life form, and goes on a bender

That's anthropomorphized AGI. There's no reason to think AGI would share our evolution-derived proclivities like wanting to live, wanting to rest, wanting respect, etc. Unless of course we train it that way.

[deleted]

Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

#210

Post by akomtu »

jmward01 wrote: post #175

Every negative headline I see about AI hitting a wall or being over-hyped makes me think of the early 2000's with that new thing the 'internet' (yes, I know the internet is a lot older than that). There is little doubt in my mind that ten years from now nearly every aspect of life will be deeply connected to AI just like the internet took over everything in the late 90's and early 2000's and is now deeply connected t…

AI can be thought of as the 2nd stage of the creature that we call the Internet. The 1st stage, that we are so familiar with, is about gathering knowledge into a giant and somewhat organized library. This library has books on every subject imaginable, but its scale is so vast that no living human today can grasp it. This is why the originally connected network has started falling apart. Once this I becomes AI, all the books in the library will be melted together into one coherent picture. Once again, anyone anywhere on Earth will be able to access all the knowledge and our Babylon will stay for a little longer.
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