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Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

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Re: Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

#201

Post by aurareturn »

frankacter wrote: post #198
aurareturn wrote: post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I specifically distinguished Taiwan on island capacity vs TSMC global capacity in my prior reply. Taiwan TSMC fabs producing cutting edge fabrication is at 100% capacity. Taiwan is the specific topic of this post which is why I offer the differentiation. Well yea, the most cutting edge node such as N3 are pre-sold and in high demand. It doesn't make your statement about banning Chinese companies from using TSMC fabs…

>That's just divorced from basic supply and demand economics. Myopic views of demand assuming unlimited supply and no consideration to political and long term economical independence from a neighboring authoritarian communist regime pointing nuclear weapons at you threatening forced unification is divorced from reality. Short term sales never negate long term consequences of golden handcuffs at the cost of freedom an…

  Myopic views of demand assuming unlimited supply and no consideration to political and long term economical independence from a neighboring authoritarian communist regime pointing nuclear weapons at you threatening forced unification is divorced from reality.
So are you admitting that not banning a market just as big as the US from using TSMC would increase TSMC's revenue? If so, that's a good first step.

The fact that you think more demand doesn't increase revenue is just mind boggling.

  Short term sales never negate long term consequences of golden handcuffs at the cost of freedom and democracy.
This has nothing to do with freedom and democracy. It has everything to do with the US wanting increase its competitiveness in high tech over China. It's all socioeconomics.

In my opinion, the US just wants to use Taiwan to suppress China. It doesn't actually care about Taiwan and its people. Trump seems to make it very clear.

Re: Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

#202

Post by aurareturn »

dylan604 wrote: post #199
aurareturn wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t understand what you mean by capacity.

Capacity as in the amount of chips they can make. If they are already at max capacity, then which of their customers currently maxing out that capacity will be told no so that they can suddenly start producing chips for other people.

More demand will drive up prices. More demand will provide incentives to build even more fabs, which will further increase revenue.

Also, TSMC's fabs are not at max capacity. It's only 70-80%.

Re: Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

#203

Post by daft_pink »

lesuorac wrote: post #179
daft_pink wrote: post #96

They should cancel their patents or software copyright on the cuda apis as a response. The only reason they are dominant is because of their software control.

Why did you pick "cancel their patents or software copyright on the cuda apis as a response"? The law is pretty clear, just throw them in prison [1]. [1]: https://www.bis.doc.gov/index.php/enforcement/oee/penalties

Because we need them to make devices to power AI at this point and the only way around that is to open up the systems so that they interoperate because they effectively have a monopoly.

Re: Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

#204

Post by maxglute »

Qwertious wrote: post #143
PittleyDunkin wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> china doesn't want to control taiwan due to any economic reasons That's absolutely not true if only for the existence of TSMC.

Not only have Taiwan said that if Taiwan invades, "we're going to blow up TSMC", but sabotaging semiconductors is absolutely, utterly trivial to do by anyone in the dozens/hundreds of steps needed to produce the cutting-edge semiconductors that make the difference between TSMC and China's domestic fabs. You can wreck production yields by using the wrong color of paint in the break room or running a fan outside the bu…

>"we're going to blow up TSMC"

No, only US writings have suggested TW should blow up their fabs, or threatened that US would. To which TW media has told US chuckle heads to knock it off because they're clearly not going to destroy their golden goose that can lay eggs for PRC or US.

Economic value is also denying US who is even more disproportionately affected by removal of 90% of high end nodes, which are already largely denied to PRC.

I wouldn't expect any TW knowledge workers to be able to leave, the runways are going to be cratered, the ports and coasts saturated with mines and overwatching drones. PRC going to make sure their only future is going to be tied to mainland prosperity.

PRC trade to west bloc in general like 5% of GDP... it's not nothing but it's not substantial. If you told Xi he could renunify with TW in exchange for 5% of GDP, he would have loled and smashed that button yesterday.

War is bad for the economy, but it could be even worse for your adversaries. Imagine if US enters fight and lost, entire geoeconomic order would shift. Entire economic order could also shift if US doesn't fight (i.e. abdicate certain 1IC security commitments).

Re: Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

#205

Post by maxglute »

dagenleg wrote: post #161
powerapple wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hong Kong was set as an example how Taiwan can be integrated as a separate economy, separate government and separate everything as long as it is part of China. The reason why it happened in Hong Kong was that the political movement was out of control, you have some members of the parliament saying "fuck China" when they swear to service during the ceremony. It is more about how Hong Kong sees China, not how China see…

This is straight up the official CCP party line you're repeating here. How Chinese people are somehow uniquely unsuited for democracy. The "multiparty democracy system in Taiwan is not seen as a positive thing" by whom? The Taiwanese? The election results from that country have shown quite the opposite.

Many mainlanders see shitshow of TW legislature brawls and think no thanks. They'd prefer quiet CCDI purges etc, not sarcasm. Like most of the PRC disaphora who moves abroad in advanced economies think democratic voting / political process is a joke after a few election cycles.

I don't know where this idea that CCP thinks Chinese people are unsuitable for democracy comes from except for repeating LIO autocracy vs democracy propaganda that insist so. CCP advertises itself as whole process democracy even, because it likes the idea of having democratic processes. If anything CCP already thinks itself democratic, more/better than 1 person 1 vote. CCP also doesn't give a shit what model is on TW, they once offered TW 1country2systems+ model where TW got to keep their political system AND military in exchange for on paper reuninfication and some foreign policy concessions (security). It matters little how TWnese conduct themselves, PRC wants political reuninfication foremost. It's about land, and always has been.

Re: Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

#206

Post by maxglute »

godelski wrote: post #167
clwg wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the event of a invasion TMSC in Taiwan will cease to function. "TMSC and its Dutch chip machine supplier ASML have made joint plans to remotely disable the machines in the event of an invasion." https://9to5mac.com/2024/05/21/chinese-invasion-of-taiwan-ts...

People seem to not realize that (just like them) Taiwan knows that China wants TSMC. Even if there wasn't a way to turn the machines off remotely in an invasion, do people not recognize that Taiwan will gladly make China blow up the facility, or do it themselves. The US said they'll do it if Taiwan won't. (Though this may change tomorrow [0]) But it's not just the facility that's important, it's the people. It's not…

Underpaid TW semi talent, now banned from working in PRC, was happily working for PRC interests for 3x-4x pay. Most has their price. During war time, it's not just going to be money, it's going to be calories, it's going to be safety.

Reality is, as with all war, collaborators will be richly rewarded, sabeteurs will be shot. US won't be able to extract much engineers - PRC A2D2 is going to prevent subtantial exfiltration, certainly not on level of 100,000s of talent. I would wager US+co won't even be able to extract their own nationals out.

There's still a lot of sole source semi supply chains on TW... if world wants global semi to keep churning they're going to have work with PRC for access. TSMC fabs in US likely on a timer the second island becomes inaccessible. Unless there's replacement/substitute, which so far PRC is the only country trying to replicate entire supply chain - meaning if anything they'll be least affected.

Realistically most PRC hopes is to extract some EUV machinery (even if damaged) for reverse engineering. Ultimately taking TSMC supply offline hurts US/west more, since leading edge disproportionately denied to PRC already - with TSMC projected to dominate 90%+ of advanced nodes for 5/10+ years, PRC is losing a finger, west is losing the hands and feet.

Re: Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

#207

Post by powerapple »

dagenleg wrote: post #161
powerapple wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hong Kong was set as an example how Taiwan can be integrated as a separate economy, separate government and separate everything as long as it is part of China. The reason why it happened in Hong Kong was that the political movement was out of control, you have some members of the parliament saying "fuck China" when they swear to service during the ceremony. It is more about how Hong Kong sees China, not how China see…

This is straight up the official CCP party line you're repeating here. How Chinese people are somehow uniquely unsuited for democracy. The "multiparty democracy system in Taiwan is not seen as a positive thing" by whom? The Taiwanese? The election results from that country have shown quite the opposite.

I didn't say how Chinese are unsuited for democracy. You are making up words I didn't say.

Westerners need to go out of their comfort zone, and realize that maybe other people don't envy the western political system, just think about the possibility.

you see what's going on in the last few years, westerners are still living like nothing has changed. The ordinary people outside the west sees hypocrisy of your political system, it is a very different time.

Re: Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

#209

Post by adgjlsfhk1 »

nosianu wrote: post #155
adgjlsfhk1 wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

if China invades Taiwan, there won't be much of TSMC left standing by the end.

I hear that statement repeated a lot, but I'm not so sure. What is the incentive? If China invades, anyone involved in destroying that asset will have a huge problem for themselves afterwards, China won't forgive. On the other hand, see what happened in Ukraine, where in the initial invasion there was quite a bit of collaboration of some Ukrainians, for example Antonov leadership ("Antonov's leadership sabotaged defe…

this is forgetting that the US exists. The US doesn't want China to invade Taiwan or to control TSMC. if China invades, is very much in the US interest to fly everyone important at TSMC and their families to the US, and to blow up the buildings. it's also in the TSMC employees interest because living in a warzone sucks. Furthermore, this policy is a dissinsentive for China to invade since it means that invading won't provide an economic benefit.

Re: Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

#210

Post by tadfisher »

InkCanon wrote: post #65
tadfisher wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pretty sure TSMC has plans to destroy or disable their fabs in this event. They (or the Taiwanese) would be stupid not to.

It's completely speculative for us, but I'd point out only the US has incentive to do that, not Taiwan. The only reason Taiwan would do it is if they adopted a scorched earth policy like Saddam and the burning Kuwaiti oil fields. But even with a psychopathic dictator like Saddam, he never burned his own oil fields.

The incentive for Taiwan is to discourage the CCP from invading.
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